ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

There have been no daily SOI updates since 6/21 for whatever reason.

Probably on vacation. They did this a few weeks ago, but it wasn't for more than 2 days.

[Kingarabian]

@Met_mdclark
Interesting to note the continued warning of the Equatorial pacific water temps. #Nino SST but #Nina background. Fun stuff. #AGwx

 https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/878970092863852544

Interested to know how they are determining it's a La Niña background atmospheric wise when the the 30 day SOi is past -7, 90 day is at -5, and in a warm PDO.

[weathaguyry]

Subsurface conditions are not at La Niña, but they are certainly not at El Niño either

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Subsurface conditions are not at La Niña, but they are certainly not at El Niño either

Im talking about atmospheric conditions.

[LarryWx]

Looking out 15 days based on the average of the 12Z GEFS and EPS, I'm seeing an overall fairly neutral picture for the SOI overall. This gets us about 10 days into July. As I've said, a solid July -SOI would be more telling than the solid June -SOI we've had as far as El Niño indications are concerned. Let's see what happens. So far, I see no clear indication of a lengthy solid -SOI coming up based on the 12Z average of these ensemble means. So, there's a lot of uncertainty for July.

Meanwhile, I still fully intend to grade myself on my SOI predictions for the last 10 days of June, good or bad. Based on that, I was projecting a rise in the June SOI to -7.

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 will be 0.7C in the update. That's the highest reading so far this year. All of the regions warmed up a little from last week.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update that has Nino 3.4 up to +0.7C.

[Kingarabian]

LongPaddock finally updated, and the SOI is almost at -7.

The SOI will be neutral through Thursday. I expect it to range from -5 to +3, depending on how the averages workout. Then this upcoming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday appear to be pretty healthy negative drops in the -8 to -12 range. Next week looks pretty much the same, but I don't like to look more than 100 hours out as the MSLP averages from the global models become to erroneous. Example: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday were supposed to come in pretty positive according to the models, but the raw averages were weak positives.

The SOI setup for July looks to be neutral with a negative weight to it. So what this means for ENSO, is that the trade winds will remain relaxed across the equator, and it'll be far less likely to see a trade burst in July that can move cooler anomalies to the surface. So with some oscillations here and there, we can expect the Nino regions to remain warm and in Nino territory, and of course Nino 3.4 should remain at weak Nino if the setup continues. So with that, we may get our first tri-monthly confirmation in the next couple of weeks.

[WeatherEmperor]

LongPaddock finally updated, and the SOI is almost at -7.

The SOI will be neutral through Thursday. I expect it to range from -5 to +3, depending on how the averages workout. Then this upcoming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday appear to be pretty healthy negative drops in the -8 to -12 range. Next week looks pretty much the same, but I don't like to look more than 100 hours out as the MSLP averages from the global models become to erroneous. Example: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday were supposed to come in pretty positive according to the models, but the raw averages were weak positives.

The SOI setup for July looks to be neutral with a negative weight to it. So what this means for ENSO, is that the trade winds will remain relaxed across the equator, and it'll be far less likely to see a trade burst in July that can move cooler anomalies to the surface. So with some oscillations here and there, we can expect the Nino regions to remain warm and in Nino territory, and of course Nino 3.4 should remain at weak Nino if the setup continues. So with that, we may get our first tri-monthly confirmation in the next couple of weeks.

These so called trade bursts have done nothing to cool the waters as they warmed anyways. I have no clue why the El Nino watch was discontinued based upon what we are seeing. I have to admit the atmosphere globally isnt what you see in a typical El Nino year but the atmosphere has to give up and give in to whats happening...El Nino. Its hard to ignore the warmth we are seeing.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Kingarabian]

LongPaddock finally updated, and the SOI is almost at -7.

The SOI will be neutral through Thursday. I expect it to range from -5 to +3, depending on how the averages workout. Then this upcoming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday appear to be pretty healthy negative drops in the -8 to -12 range. Next week looks pretty much the same, but I don't like to look more than 100 hours out as the MSLP averages from the global models become to erroneous. Example: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday were supposed to come in pretty positive according to the models, but the raw averages were weak positives.

The SOI setup for July looks to be neutral with a negative weight to it. So what this means for ENSO, is that the trade winds will remain relaxed across the equator, and it'll be far less likely to see a trade burst in July that can move cooler anomalies to the surface. So with some oscillations here and there, we can expect the Nino regions to remain warm and in Nino territory, and of course Nino 3.4 should remain at weak Nino if the setup continues. So with that, we may get our first tri-monthly confirmation in the next couple of weeks.

These so called trade bursts have done nothing to cool the waters as they warmed anyways. I have no clue why the El Nino watch was discontinued based upon what we are seeing. I have to admit the atmosphere globally isnt what you see in a typical El Nino year but the atmosphere has to give up and give in to whats happening...El Nino. Its hard to ignore the warmth we are seeing.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

Well they were beginning to do a number at the subsurface, with yet another cold pool forming. Maybe they were weaker than advertised, but their effects at the subsurface were beginning to become evident. Considering we need 5 tri-monthlies to get a declaration (which would be somewhere during mid Fall most likely), history tells us (past Nino events) that the subsurface being as warm as possible would be really helpful. So the fact that the easterlies will be week for a 2nd month in a row will be pretty significant.

I agree that the discontinuation of the El Nino watch and the Australians issuing a cancellation were premature. They solely based those declarations on confused models. Although to the models defense this ENSO setup has been completely bizarre to the say the least and we can't expect them to act normally. In my opinion, the CPC and the BOM should simply just base their forecasts on the key variables that compose ENSO, (SOI, PDO, SST's) and go from there, especially when we begin to see something this unique. But to their defense, the CPC and BOM have probably never seen an ENSO episode like this before as well.

[LarryWx]

I would say that if June SOI can make it below -7 for the monthly average, El-Nino may still be in the cards for the end of 2017, if it fails to get below -7, El-Nino is no longer a possibility. There are definitely atmospheric signals that point to an El-Nino, but there is no ocean support. Just my opinion though.

We're currently at -12 MTD but MTD will rise from that level. 19 of 30 Junes that were -7 or lower were oncoming Nino years though 25 of 31 Julys with -7 or lower were that way. So, July being -7 or lower is a much better indicator than June of a likely Nino. 17 of 20 of years when June and July were both -7 or lower were that way.

29 of 38 Augusts that were -7 or lower were that way.

It is hard to say if tomorrow's SOI will be the 18th -SOI in a row.

Well, it looks like my prediction a week ago for June's SOI to end up near -7 is going to verify too high due to my predictions of 6/20-26 being 11 too positive averaged out. That means that June will end up near -9 rather than -7. That is pretty significant as a -7 or lower is only moderately predictive of an oncoming Nino with only 19 of 30 Junes with -7 or more negative leading up to El Nino. However, 19 of 25 Junes with -9 or lower were that way. That's almost as strong an El Nino indicator as a -7 is in July. When combining this fact with the most recent weekly SOI now having warmed to +0.7, El Nino (weak to low end moderate...probably Modoki) is looking more and more probable.

Remember those June plume models having June cooled to only +0.2? They're now looking pretty far off and consequently I'm expecting the July plume to revert back toward the weak Nino direction.

[weathaguyry]

I am truly blown away from all of this, the SOI has been very low, and a weak modoki Nino is probably the most likely outcome.

[Kingarabian]

I would say that if June SOI can make it below -7 for the monthly average, El-Nino may still be in the cards for the end of 2017, if it fails to get below -7, El-Nino is no longer a possibility. There are definitely atmospheric signals that point to an El-Nino, but there is no ocean support. Just my opinion though.

We're currently at -12 MTD but MTD will rise from that level. 19 of 30 Junes that were -7 or lower were oncoming Nino years though 25 of 31 Julys with -7 or lower were that way. So, July being -7 or lower is a much better indicator than June of a likely Nino. 17 of 20 of years when June and July were both -7 or lower were that way.

29 of 38 Augusts that were -7 or lower were that way.

It is hard to say if tomorrow's SOI will be the 18th -SOI in a row.

Well, it looks like my prediction a week ago for June's SOI to end up near -7 is going to verify too high due to my predictions of 6/20-26 being 11 too positive averaged out. That means that June will end up near -9 rather than -7. That is pretty significant as a -7 or lower is only moderately predictive of an oncoming Nino with only 19 of 30 Junes with -7 or more negative leading up to El Nino. However, 19 of 25 Junes with -9 or lower were that way. That's almost as strong an El Nino indicator as a -7 is in July. When combining this fact with the most recent weekly SOI now having warmed to +0.7, El Nino (weak to low end moderate...probably Modoki) is looking more and more probable.

Remember those June plume models having June cooled to only +0.2? They're now looking pretty far off and consequently I'm expecting the July plume to revert back toward the weak Nino direction.

I also think July will come in close to -7, which will fall even more in line with your calculations.

[Kingarabian]

JAMSTEC has a pretty stout central pacific based Nino for the heart of the season.

[LarryWx]

Junes with an SOI of -12 or lower are very strong predictors/indicators of El Niño (10 of 12). So, I'll focus on the -6 to -12 area, which is centered on the -9 that I'm predicting for this month, which would place it near the 18th percentile of the most -SOI June's.

There have been 25 Junes within the -6 to -12 range. Of those, 12 (48%) were in advance of a Niño fall/winter. That leaves 13 others. Of those 13, 4 were following a Niño with every or just about every month from the prior fall/winter through the June afterward in solid -SOI territory. So, the solidly -SOI in June could be thought of in those cases as a holdover near the end of an old Niño.

That leaves 9 others that didn't go to a new Niño. All 9 of these had a MJJ Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (per Eric Webber's tables) within the range of -0.7 to +0.1. Barring some unforeseen steep drop in July, MJJ is likely headed for something like +0.4 to +0.6, which is clearly warmer than those 9 cases. So, in essence, 2017 has a head start that those 9 didn't have.

So, 2017 is not in either of the above 2 categories covering the 13 June SOI's within the -6 to -12 range that didn't go to Niño. Whereas I'm not saying we're anywhere near a certain Niño, I firmly feel that the chances right now are a good bit higher than 50%.....perhaps a 2 in 3 chance.

[Kingarabian]

Junes with an SOI of -12 or lower are very strong predictors/indicators of El Niño (10 of 12). So, I'll focus on the -6 to -12 area, which is centered on the -9 that I'm predicting for this month, which would place it near the 18th percentile of the most -SOI June's.

There have been 25 Junes within the -6 to -12 range. Of those, 12 (48%) were in advance of a Niño fall/winter. That leaves 13 others. Of those 13, 4 were following a Niño with every or just about every month from the prior fall/winter through the June afterward in solid -SOI territory. So, the solidly -SOI in June could be thought of in those cases as a holdover near the end of an old Niño.

That leaves 9 others that didn't go to a new Niño. All 9 of these had a MJJ Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (per Eric Webber's tables) within the range of -0.7 to +0.1. Barring some unforeseen steep drop in July, MJJ is likely headed for something like +0.4 to +0.6, which is clearly warmer than those 9 cases. So, in essence, 2017 has a head start that those 9 didn't have.

So, 2017 is not in either of the above 2 categories covering the 13 June SOI's within the -6 to -12 range that didn't go to Niño. Whereas I'm not saying we're anywhere near a certain Niño, I firmly feel that the chances right now are a good bit higher than 50%.....perhaps a 2 in 3 chance.

Great analysis.

Also, EPS weeklies are firm on the SOI being negative for July. They even show it being negative all the way into August. If this holds true, we're going to see drastic changes.

[Kingarabian]

CFS is showing a massive WWB event that will kick off in late July and last through September.



It would correlate with a negative SOI but it looks off. This is similar to the WWB we saw in 2014.

 https://twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/880123562807500804


Comments in this tweet talk about it in depth.

[Ntxw]

Average for last 30 days -9.20
Average for last 90 days -4.95
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -4.92

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/880453139178151939



 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/880377655568220160

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/880453139178151939



 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/880377655568220160

What does that mean for the season potentially?