LarryWx wrote:There have been no daily SOI updates since 6/21 for whatever reason.
Probably on vacation. They did this a few weeks ago, but it wasn't for more than 2 days.
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LarryWx wrote:There have been no daily SOI updates since 6/21 for whatever reason.
cycloneye wrote: @Met_mdclark
Interesting to note the continued warning of the Equatorial pacific water temps. #Nino SST but #Nina background. Fun stuff. #AGwx
https://twitter.com/Met_mdclark/status/878970092863852544
weathaguyry wrote::uarrow: Subsurface conditions are not at La Niña, but they are certainly not at El Niño either
Kingarabian wrote:LongPaddock finally updated, and the SOI is almost at -7.
The SOI will be neutral through Thursday. I expect it to range from -5 to +3, depending on how the averages workout. Then this upcoming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday appear to be pretty healthy negative drops in the -8 to -12 range. Next week looks pretty much the same, but I don't like to look more than 100 hours out as the MSLP averages from the global models become to erroneous. Example: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday were supposed to come in pretty positive according to the models, but the raw averages were weak positives.
The SOI setup for July looks to be neutral with a negative weight to it. So what this means for ENSO, is that the trade winds will remain relaxed across the equator, and it'll be far less likely to see a trade burst in July that can move cooler anomalies to the surface. So with some oscillations here and there, we can expect the Nino regions to remain warm and in Nino territory, and of course Nino 3.4 should remain at weak Nino if the setup continues. So with that, we may get our first tri-monthly confirmation in the next couple of weeks.
WeatherEmperor wrote:Kingarabian wrote:LongPaddock finally updated, and the SOI is almost at -7.
The SOI will be neutral through Thursday. I expect it to range from -5 to +3, depending on how the averages workout. Then this upcoming Friday, Saturday, and Sunday appear to be pretty healthy negative drops in the -8 to -12 range. Next week looks pretty much the same, but I don't like to look more than 100 hours out as the MSLP averages from the global models become to erroneous. Example: Friday, Saturday, and Sunday were supposed to come in pretty positive according to the models, but the raw averages were weak positives.
The SOI setup for July looks to be neutral with a negative weight to it. So what this means for ENSO, is that the trade winds will remain relaxed across the equator, and it'll be far less likely to see a trade burst in July that can move cooler anomalies to the surface. So with some oscillations here and there, we can expect the Nino regions to remain warm and in Nino territory, and of course Nino 3.4 should remain at weak Nino if the setup continues. So with that, we may get our first tri-monthly confirmation in the next couple of weeks.
These so called trade bursts have done nothing to cool the waters as they warmed anyways. I have no clue why the El Nino watch was discontinued based upon what we are seeing. I have to admit the atmosphere globally isnt what you see in a typical El Nino year but the atmosphere has to give up and give in to whats happening...El Nino. Its hard to ignore the warmth we are seeing.
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LarryWx wrote:weathaguyry wrote:I would say that if June SOI can make it below -7 for the monthly average, El-Nino may still be in the cards for the end of 2017, if it fails to get below -7, El-Nino is no longer a possibility. There are definitely atmospheric signals that point to an El-Nino, but there is no ocean support. Just my opinion though.
We're currently at -12 MTD but MTD will rise from that level. 19 of 30 Junes that were -7 or lower were oncoming Nino years though 25 of 31 Julys with -7 or lower were that way. So, July being -7 or lower is a much better indicator than June of a likely Nino. 17 of 20 of years when June and July were both -7 or lower were that way.
29 of 38 Augusts that were -7 or lower were that way.
It is hard to say if tomorrow's SOI will be the 18th -SOI in a row.
LarryWx wrote:LarryWx wrote:weathaguyry wrote:I would say that if June SOI can make it below -7 for the monthly average, El-Nino may still be in the cards for the end of 2017, if it fails to get below -7, El-Nino is no longer a possibility. There are definitely atmospheric signals that point to an El-Nino, but there is no ocean support. Just my opinion though.
We're currently at -12 MTD but MTD will rise from that level. 19 of 30 Junes that were -7 or lower were oncoming Nino years though 25 of 31 Julys with -7 or lower were that way. So, July being -7 or lower is a much better indicator than June of a likely Nino. 17 of 20 of years when June and July were both -7 or lower were that way.
29 of 38 Augusts that were -7 or lower were that way.
It is hard to say if tomorrow's SOI will be the 18th -SOI in a row.
Well, it looks like my prediction a week ago for June's SOI to end up near -7 is going to verify too high due to my predictions of 6/20-26 being 11 too positive averaged out. That means that June will end up near -9 rather than -7. That is pretty significant as a -7 or lower is only moderately predictive of an oncoming Nino with only 19 of 30 Junes with -7 or more negative leading up to El Nino. However, 19 of 25 Junes with -9 or lower were that way. That's almost as strong an El Nino indicator as a -7 is in July. When combining this fact with the most recent weekly SOI now having warmed to +0.7, El Nino (weak to low end moderate...probably Modoki) is looking more and more probable.
Remember those June plume models having June cooled to only +0.2? They're now looking pretty far off and consequently I'm expecting the July plume to revert back toward the weak Nino direction.
LarryWx wrote:Junes with an SOI of -12 or lower are very strong predictors/indicators of El Niño (10 of 12). So, I'll focus on the -6 to -12 area, which is centered on the -9 that I'm predicting for this month, which would place it near the 18th percentile of the most -SOI June's.
There have been 25 Junes within the -6 to -12 range. Of those, 12 (48%) were in advance of a Niño fall/winter. That leaves 13 others. Of those 13, 4 were following a Niño with every or just about every month from the prior fall/winter through the June afterward in solid -SOI territory. So, the solidly -SOI in June could be thought of in those cases as a holdover near the end of an old Niño.
That leaves 9 others that didn't go to a new Niño. All 9 of these had a MJJ Niño 3.4 SST anomaly (per Eric Webber's tables) within the range of -0.7 to +0.1. Barring some unforeseen steep drop in July, MJJ is likely headed for something like +0.4 to +0.6, which is clearly warmer than those 9 cases. So, in essence, 2017 has a head start that those 9 didn't have.
So, 2017 is not in either of the above 2 categories covering the 13 June SOI's within the -6 to -12 range that didn't go to Niño. Whereas I'm not saying we're anywhere near a certain Niño, I firmly feel that the chances right now are a good bit higher than 50%.....perhaps a 2 in 3 chance.
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