ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C

#8481 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:14 pm

FINALLY the JISAO releases it's PDO for June, at 0.79
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C

#8482 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:18 pm

weathaguyry wrote:FINALLY the JISAO releases it's PDO for June, at 0.79


Here is the text. Another month in positive but barely so.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C

#8483 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:
weathaguyry wrote:FINALLY the JISAO releases it's PDO for June, at 0.79


Here is the text. Another month in positive but barely so.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest


Wow, last year was at +2 for June!
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8484 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:21 pm

Finally..that's a tick down from May but continues the unprecedented unbroken + streak on JISAO at 42 months. Overall July looks like it may tick down a little more but should continue positive.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8485 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:29 pm

Ntxw wrote:Finally..that's a tick down from May but continues the unprecedented unbroken + streak on JISAO at 42 months. Overall July looks like it may tick down a little more but should continue positive.


The Mantua Box average for the past 30 days is +0.93.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8486 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Finally..that's a tick down from May but continues the unprecedented unbroken + streak on JISAO at 42 months. Overall July looks like it may tick down a little more but should continue positive.


The Mantua Box average for the past 30 days is +0.93.


It'll be interesting. The area below the Aleutians towards Japan has warmed up dramatically in July from being very cold. But the Pacific Ocean in general is above average so the differences will be skewed.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8487 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:32 pm

Would very warm anomalies east of Japan be indicative of a less positive PDO?

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8488 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 24, 2017 9:34 pm

weathaguyry wrote:Would very warm anomalies east of Japan be indicative of a less positive PDO?


It does
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8489 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:04 pm

Looking back at 2012, how come the trimonthly average for Nino 3.4 for JAS is listed as +0.3C if my calculations show an average of +0.6C by looking at its weekly readings?
Was it reanalyzed later on, does anyone know?
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8490 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:15 pm

NDG wrote:Looking back at 2012, how come the trimonthly average for Nino 3.4 for JAS is listed as +0.3C if my calculations show an average of +0.6C by looking at its weekly readings?
Was it reanalyzed later on, does anyone know?


ONI uses ERSSTv4 which is a smoothed, moving dataset. It's tweaked quite a bit (for instance 2014-2015 being weak Nino, removed, then now back) and I don't think it is derived from the weekly readings. The weekly readings if I'm not mistaken is taken from OISST which is derived in part from Reynolds SST method
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8491 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 25, 2017 2:19 am

Ntxw wrote:
NDG wrote:Looking back at 2012, how come the trimonthly average for Nino 3.4 for JAS is listed as +0.3C if my calculations show an average of +0.6C by looking at its weekly readings?
Was it reanalyzed later on, does anyone know?


ONI uses ERSSTv4 which is a smoothed, moving dataset. It's tweaked quite a bit (for instance 2014-2015 being weak Nino, removed, then now back) and I don't think it is derived from the weekly readings. The weekly readings if I'm not mistaken is taken from OISST which is derived in part from Reynolds SST method


Makes sense now. So ONI is independent of the weekly readings. It'll be interesting to see if they go back and push AMJ to +0.5C. That means if August recovers the warming at Nino 3.4 we would be at our 4th tri monthly.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8492 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 25, 2017 6:42 am

@BenNollWeather
The train of trades is expected to continue over the next 10 days, with enhanced easterlies invof the dateline. #ensoneutral #LaNina


 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/889805186436218880


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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C

#8493 Postby LarryWx » Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:11 pm

LarryWx wrote:Looking at the 12Z model consensus, I still do not yet see a clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June. This takes us well into the first week of August. That's even after taking into account that my model consensus based Tahiti SLP estimates have been coming in about 1 mb too high at Tahiti.


Ditto to the above. Another day with no change/no clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June. So, as Luis posted, the non-Nino friendly enhanced easterlies look to rule for the foreseeable future (say at least into the 1st week of August).
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8494 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:21 pm

The fours areas of ENSO are down as of July 25th with Nino 1+2 being the coldest.

Nino 1+2

Image

Nino 3

Image

Nino 3.4

Image

Nino 4

Image
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update= Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C

#8495 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:23 pm

LarryWx wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Looking at the 12Z model consensus, I still do not yet see a clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June. This takes us well into the first week of August. That's even after taking into account that my model consensus based Tahiti SLP estimates have been coming in about 1 mb too high at Tahiti.


Ditto to the above. Another day with no change/no clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June. So, as Luis posted, the enhanced easterlies look to rule for the foreseeable future (say at least into the 1st week of August).


Maybe the second week of August as Darwin will be under a suppressed Kelvin then. Some weakening of the trades per the the GFS - at least temporarily , and a miniature WWB @ Nino 1+2:

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO is +0.79

#8496 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:26 pm

cycloneye wrote:The fours areas of ENSO are down as of July 25th with Nino 1+2 being the coldest.

Nino 1+2

[img]http://i.imgur.com/vwjQ0f1.png/img]

Nino 3

[img]http://i.imgur.com/0dQTW9x.png/img]

Nino 3.4

[img]http://i.imgur.com/MBxBh6o.png[img]

Nino 4

[img]http://i.imgur.com/6y9SlW6.png[/mg]


Almost similar to the May-April drop.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8497 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:44 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The fours areas of ENSO are down as of July 25th with Nino 1+2 being the coldest.

Nino 1+2

[img]http://i.imgur.com/vwjQ0f1.png/img]

Nino 3

[img]http://i.imgur.com/0dQTW9x.png/img]

Nino 3.4

[img]http://i.imgur.com/MBxBh6o.png[img]

Nino 4

[img]http://i.imgur.com/6y9SlW6.png[/mg]


Almost similar to the May-April drop.


Yeah but those numbers dont seem right. There is no way 1+2 is currently at -1.0C lol


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8498 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jul 25, 2017 3:45 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:The fours areas of ENSO are down as of July 25th with Nino 1+2 being the coldest.

Nino 1+2

[img]http://i.imgur.com/vwjQ0f1.png/img]

Nino 3

[img]http://i.imgur.com/0dQTW9x.png/img]

Nino 3.4

[img]http://i.imgur.com/MBxBh6o.png[img]

Nino 4

[img]http://i.imgur.com/6y9SlW6.png[/mg]


Almost similar to the May-April drop.


Yeah but those numbers dont seem right. There is no way 1+2 is currently at -1.0C lol


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk


Yeah as we mentioned many times before, the satellite SST estimates should be accounted for cautiously.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8499 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jul 26, 2017 8:59 am

Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8500 Postby NDG » Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:09 pm

LarryWx wrote:Both Levi's satellite based SSTs and the TAO maps have shown impressive cooling down to below +0.5 in Niño 3.4. Is El Niño dead like many models have been suggesting? I still see no return to a solid -SOI string anytime soon in the 0Z Euro.


Like I said Monday, it is, IMO 8-)
Last edited by NDG on Wed Jul 26, 2017 12:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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