ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8701 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:43 pm

Ntxw wrote:In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C


Incredible. CFS is now lagging behind the real time Nino 3.4 data, with it currently having Nino 3.4 @ -0.5C and also peaking the event @ Nino -1.1C. Next update should be interesting. Wonder if we could get a super La Nina by spring.

Looking at the anomalies, it also looks like this Nina is trying hard to flip the PDO negative. Could we see a strong La Nina with a positive PDO?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8702 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:07 pm

Some of the pro's on twitter.seem to think so over the past week.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/LaNi%C3%B1a?src=hash
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8703 Postby Ptarmigan » Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C


Incredible. CFS is now lagging behind the real time Nino 3.4 data, with it currently having Nino 3.4 @ -0.5C and also peaking the event @ Nino -1.1C. Next update should be interesting. Wonder if we could get a super La Nina by spring.

Looking at the anomalies, it also looks like this Nina is trying hard to flip the PDO negative. Could we see a strong La Nina with a positive PDO?


Could happen. Not unheard of. 1988-1989 was a strong La Nina in warm PDO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8704 Postby weathaguyry » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:40 pm

JISAO October PDO at +0.05, very close, but the the positive streak continues :D
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8705 Postby Ntxw » Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:58 pm

Yes Jisao hangs by a thread to make it 46 months in a row...
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8706 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Nov 18, 2017 6:00 pm

ENSO indicators seem to be mixed so far with the atmosphere still lagging as the SOI has not been able to take off as we would normally see in classic La Nina events. Its certainly there with the cool anomalies at the subsurface and surface though. CFS and other seasonal models skill levels begin to diminish at this stage but the CFS is now calling for a weak Nina for the beginning of the 2018 hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8707 Postby Shell Mound » Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:56 pm

What's interesting is that the CFSv2 doesn't show much of a pronounced, eastward-progressing North Atlantic cold pool through early spring. While visible, it doesn't seem to exert much of an influence on surrounding warm anomalies, and doesn't manage to (temporarily) displace them across the whole North Atlantic. By May–June, those cold anomalies retreat rather quickly, and a strong +AMO arc emerges on the CFSv2, with a warm tongue extending from Greenland south into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Note that while the MDR is cool on the run, the CFSv2 has had a persistent long-range cool bias in that region; it ended up too cool for the past two seasons in the tropical Atlantic. However, note that the CFSv2 shows a pattern much more redolent of a classic +AMO than what we observed from 2013–16. In fact, it looks to be even more positive this winter/spring than it was in 2016–17. If this trend were to verify and ENSO were to remain neutral, then I would expect a potentially very active 2018 season, unfortunately. But I must stress that this is a very preliminary and early assessment.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8708 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:44 pm

Kingarabian wrote:ENSO indicators seem to be mixed so far with the atmosphere still lagging as the SOI has not been able to take off as we would normally see in classic La Nina events. Its certainly there with the cool anomalies at the subsurface and surface though. CFS and other seasonal models skill levels begin to diminish at this stage but the CFS is now calling for a weak Nina for the beginning of the 2018 hurricane season.


Of course after a cat 5 slammed PR,that is not what I want to see.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8709 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:58 am

This week will hold steady at 1.1 when the update comes
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8710 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:03 am

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:ENSO indicators seem to be mixed so far with the atmosphere still lagging as the SOI has not been able to take off as we would normally see in classic La Nina events. Its certainly there with the cool anomalies at the subsurface and surface though. CFS and other seasonal models skill levels begin to diminish at this stage but the CFS is now calling for a weak Nina for the beginning of the 2018 hurricane season.


Of course after a cat 5 slammed PR,that is not what I want to see.


Hoping for a quiet season next year. Welcome back! Your absence the past 2 months after the hurricane has well noticed. Glad you made it through.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8711 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:52 am

The CPC weekly update of 11/20/17 has Nino 3.4 at -1.1C

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8712 Postby Dean_175 » Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:19 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Ntxw wrote:In one of the biggest jumps you will ever see, this week's reading will drop all the way to -1.1C


Incredible. CFS is now lagging behind the real time Nino 3.4 data, with it currently having Nino 3.4 @ -0.5C and also peaking the event @ Nino -1.1C. Next update should be interesting. Wonder if we could get a super La Nina by spring.

Looking at the anomalies, it also looks like this Nina is trying hard to flip the PDO negative. Could we see a strong La Nina with a positive PDO?



Unlikely for a few reasons. Super Nina is rare and there has never been 3 consecutive ONI readings below -2.0C. It is normal for weeklies to get high/low near the peak of an event (which normally occurs late fall-early winter). Many years have reached near +/- 2.0C in weeklies that did not correspond to such values in the trimonthlies. It is the ONI that matters and you need to reach strong negative values for several months in a row to get -2.0C. You can think probably -2.5 to -2.8C range for the weeklies for an ONI in the "very strong/super" range.

Most ENSO events show some degree of weakening by March--even if they later start developing again (2011,2014,etc.). Would need to see significant cold pool development along with stronger trade bursts with strongly positive SOI to support such rapid cooling.

I think most likely scenario is weak La Nina personally. That is what the overall progression seems to me. I think that with the pass filter in the dataset , the last ONI value will be pushed down to -0.5C..and we will get probably 4 more trimonthlies after that.. but ERSSTv5 is still new and is hard to see how it will measure.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8713 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Nov 24, 2017 4:52 pm

Another round of trades per the latest GFS. Should maintain the < -1.0C for the rest of November.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8714 Postby Ntxw » Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:29 am

Warmed up a bit per this week. Should be -0.8C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8715 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:29 pm

Nino 3.4 went more warm in this weekly update of 11/27/17.Is up from -1.1C to -0.8C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 11/27/17: Nino 3.4 up to -0.8C

#8716 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Nov 27, 2017 7:26 pm

How much longer below -.5c would it need to continue to be declared official?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8717 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Dec 02, 2017 3:42 pm

Back down to -1.0C this week?

Also looks like the +PDO streak from JISAO and JMA will be over soon based on eyeballing SST anomalies.

Trade winds also continue to dominate over the CPAC, so expect the cold pool at the subsurface to maintain.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8718 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 04, 2017 12:08 am

NCDC's PDO rose a bit from October so we should see JISAO rise a little as well. In theory the stretch looks to continue.

ONI for SON comes in at -0.7C which is the first trimonthly this year officially Nina value. 4 more in a row will be needed.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8719 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:59 am

The weekly update from CPC of 12/4/17 has Nino 3.4 down from -0.8C that was last week to -0.7C this week.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC 12/4/17 update: Nino 3.4 down to -0.7C

#8720 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Dec 04, 2017 5:21 pm

Pretty interesting that despite the recent positive surge in the SOI and the trade bursts that are analyzed and predicted by the GFS over the CPAC, have not cooled Nino 3.4 significantly.

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Last edited by Kingarabian on Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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