ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/22/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

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Re: ENSO: CPC 12/4/17 update: Nino 3.4 down to -0.7C

#8721 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:09 am

Image
BOM has called it officially.
La Niña established in tropical Pacific
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8722 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:56 am

The 12/11 update maintains Nino 3.4 at -0.8C.


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Re: ENSO: CPC December update: La Niña thru mid/late spring/Neutral after that.

#8723 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 14, 2017 10:55 am

The monthly update by CPC of December has La Niña thru mid to late Spring and then Neutral after that.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 December 2017

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory


Synopsis: La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring.

La Niña strengthened during the past month, as indicated by an increasingly prominent pattern of below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -0.8°C, with the easternmost Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 indices at or below -1.0°C during much of the month [Fig. 2]. Sub-surface temperature anomalies weakened slightly during November, but remained significantly negative [Fig. 3] due to the anomalously shallow depth of the thermocline across the central and eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific Ocean also reflected La Niña, with convection suppressed near the International Date Line and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The low-level trade winds were stronger than average over the western and central Pacific, with anomalous westerly winds at upper-levels. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflects La Niña.

La Niña is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18 by nearly all models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] and in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME; [Fig. 7]). Based on the latest observations and forecast guidance, forecasters favor the peak of a weak-to-moderate La Niña during the winter (3-month Niño-3.4 values between 0.5°C and 1.5°C). In summary, La Niña is likely (exceeding ~80%) through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2017-18, with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely during the mid-to-late spring (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday December 21st). The outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the northern tier of the United States.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO: CPC December update: La Niña thru mid/late spring/Neutral after that

#8724 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 14, 2017 1:56 pm

As always,the CPC ENSO blogs have interesting things about their reasoning behind their updates.

An excerpt below: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

Our second La Niña year in a row is in full swing now, and is forecast to last through the winter. In November, the average surface water temperature in the Niño3.4 region of the central Pacific Ocean was about 1.0°C cooler than the long-term average. A “double-dip” La Niña is not uncommon—seven La Niña winters in the 1950-present historical record followed La Niña the previous winter: 1955, 1971, 1974, 1984, 1999, 2008, and 2011. In fact, two years, 1975 and 2000, were third-year La Niñas. Only four years, 1964, 1988, 1995, and 2005, were single-year La Niñas.

:darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ble-double


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Re: ENSO: CPC 12/18/17 update=Niño 3.4 at -0.8C

#8725 Postby cycloneye » Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:05 pm

Niño 3.4 remains at -0.8C in this update on 12/18/17 by CPC.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8726 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Dec 24, 2017 7:56 pm

Cold pool vs Warm pool battle has begun:

Image

Looks like it will again be a difficult task to predict ENSO for the upcoming hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8727 Postby Alyono » Sun Dec 24, 2017 10:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Cold pool vs Warm pool battle has begun:

Image

Looks like it will again be a difficult task to predict ENSO for the upcoming hurricane season.


I'd almost lean toward a niño. While we can be cold ENSO for 3 straight years, it does not usually occur. Plus, given the skill of the climate models to forecast the OPPOSITE of what is really going to happen this far in advance, the fact they are saying niña, makes me wonder if we will see a niño
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8728 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Dec 26, 2017 9:58 am

Nino 3.4 dropped a little to -1.0C on the 12/26 CPC update.


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Re: ENSO: CPC 12/26/17 update: Niño 3.4 down to -1.0C

#8729 Postby cycloneye » Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:44 am

The CPC update of 12/26/17 has Niño 3.4 going down from -0.8C of the past three weeks to -1.0C this week.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC 1/2/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C

#8730 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 02, 2018 9:38 am

The first CPC update of 2018 has Niño 3.4 going up from -1.0C last week to -0.6C on this week's update.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC 1/2/18 update: Niño 3.4 up to -0.6C

#8731 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:46 pm

@carl_schreck
While everyone's watching the cold, big changes are afoot in the tropical circulation. #LaNina dry in the Pacific redeveloping and spreading westward. Also big change in the Walker Circulation with a shift in upper level wind anomalies in the eastern Pacific.


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 https://twitter.com/carl_schreck/status/948275559817187328


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Re: ENSO Updates

#8732 Postby GeneratorPower » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:05 pm

This La Nina looks to continue for a while at least. My guess is we stay Nina through most of next year with a blockbuster Atlantic hurricane season for 2018. The more I learn, the more I think ENSO is *the* dominating factor for all hurricane seasons. Sure, you can get an Andrew in an off-year. But for quality and quantity of storms, you need a cool neutral to La Nina. And you need ATL and PAC ocean temp patterns to cooperate so you don't get a million storms all recurving at 50W longitude.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8733 Postby Alyono » Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:17 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:This La Nina looks to continue for a while at least. My guess is we stay Nina through most of next year with a blockbuster Atlantic hurricane season for 2018. The more I learn, the more I think ENSO is *the* dominating factor for all hurricane seasons. Sure, you can get an Andrew in an off-year. But for quality and quantity of storms, you need a cool neutral to La Nina. And you need ATL and PAC ocean temp patterns to cooperate so you don't get a million storms all recurving at 50W longitude.


1992 was a technical cool neutral. The EPAC MDR was simply well above average, similar to 1983.

I'd say its the EPAC MDR temps that are more important than ENSO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8734 Postby euro6208 » Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:46 pm

I would love to go back and read this thread but 11 years of it? :lol: Maybe time to start a new thread and sticky this one to the new one?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8735 Postby Kalrany » Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:04 am

euro6208 wrote:I would love to go back and read this thread but 11 years of it? :lol: Maybe time to start a new thread and sticky this one to the new one?


Not a bad idea, but I think this thread is still smaller than some for individual hurricanes. What would really be helpful (and likely a bit of work) would be to tag the start of each year. Then people looking for trends would be spared guessing across the decade as a aggregate.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8736 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:45 pm

euro6208 wrote:I would love to go back and read this thread but 11 years of it? :lol: Maybe time to start a new thread and sticky this one to the new one?


I think is not needed a new ENSO thread as all what you need to know about what is going on is in the first post graphics that update daily and weekly.Also I post the CPC and BoM updates at the title of thread with the relevant headline.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8737 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:09 am

NCDC PDO rose a little bit for December. JISAO usually follows suit
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8738 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:12 am

cycloneye wrote:
euro6208 wrote:I would love to go back and read this thread but 11 years of it? :lol: Maybe time to start a new thread and sticky this one to the new one?


I think is not needed a new ENSO thread as all what you need to know about what is going on is in the first post graphics that update daily and weekly.Also I post the CPC and BoM updates at the title of thread with the relevant headline.


Luis,

I think hotlinking the ONI table from the CPC on the first page would be useful. That folks can just hop onto the first page to see what years provided what ENSO event.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8739 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
euro6208 wrote:I would love to go back and read this thread but 11 years of it? :lol: Maybe time to start a new thread and sticky this one to the new one?


I think is not needed a new ENSO thread as all what you need to know about what is going on is in the first post graphics that update daily and weekly.Also I post the CPC and BoM updates at the title of thread with the relevant headline.


Luis,

I think hotlinking the ONI table from the CPC on the first page would be useful. That folks can just hop onto the first page to see what years provided what ENSO event.


Great idea and I did it that way.Is at the top of first post so all can find it fast.
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI data since 1950 at first post

#8740 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:08 pm

@PaulRoundy1
Seems to be more subseasonal/MJO amplitude in here than Niña (more propagating than stationary). It's just phasing nicely with the Niña.


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 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/950065303597273088


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