ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

We're behind 2006 (0.0) and 2009 (-0.2) at this time of year.

-0.2 and -0.4C is not all that far off. You're looking at a difference of 0.2C. I do think neutral is going to be the game for another few months but depending on what perspective you look at, there have been warmer years (2012 and last year for example) that failed at El Nino on the other side of the coin if using just the surface.

[Kingarabian]

Saw it on the GFS this morning and it's interesting that it's almost a carbon copy of the late March event.

https://i.imgur.com/zSDsuN5.gif

Will be important to see if it stops the trade burst developing in the eastern Pacific.

If this WWB materializes, that means since the start of the year, we've seen four westerly wind bursts in as many months. And they've all been MJO driven. Gives us a hint on where the atmosphere may be leaning to.

Looks even further west

That’s what I was also going to say, that is further west (over the maritime continent to be exact) and weaker than previous WWBs. Also interesting that it ramps up the trades over the central and eastern Pacific (El Niño killer).

That's what happened in late March -- and almost every time when a WWB is generated due to MJO activity. As the MJO enters and leaves the MC, the westerly anomalies start shifting further east and closer to the dateline.

As for the trades, like I said maybe around a month ago, we're going to need a substantial enhancement of the trades for a long period of time to wipe out what has already developed and situated beneath the surface. What we've been seeing the past 4 weeks has been nothing but broken up easterlies that are only slightly enhanced compared to normal. That's why the warm pool has continued to strengthen and expand despite no WWB in the eastern Pacific.

[NotSparta]

Looks even further west

That’s what I was also going to say, that is further west (over the maritime continent to be exact) and weaker than previous WWBs. Also interesting that it ramps up the trades over the central and eastern Pacific (El Niño killer).

That's what happened in late March -- and almost every time when a WWB is generated due to MJO activity. As the MJO enters and leaves the MC, the westerly anomalies start shifting further east and closer to the dateline.

As for the trades, like I said maybe around a month ago, we're going to need a substantial enhancement of the trades for a long period of time to wipe out what has already developed and situated beneath the surface. What we've been seeing the past 4 weeks has been nothing but broken up easterlies that are only slightly enhanced compared to normal. That's why the warm pool has continued to strengthen and expand despite no WWB in the eastern Pacific.

Though it doesn't mean there won't be an El Niño, but a warm pool does not guarantee an El Niño or even a significant change in SSTAs.

Take 2014, for example - the 2015/16 El Niño did not really get going until another strong warm pool surfaced.

[Kingarabian]

That’s what I was also going to say, that is further west (over the maritime continent to be exact) and weaker than previous WWBs. Also interesting that it ramps up the trades over the central and eastern Pacific (El Niño killer).

That's what happened in late March -- and almost every time when a WWB is generated due to MJO activity. As the MJO enters and leaves the MC, the westerly anomalies start shifting further east and closer to the dateline.

As for the trades, like I said maybe around a month ago, we're going to need a substantial enhancement of the trades for a long period of time to wipe out what has already developed and situated beneath the surface. What we've been seeing the past 4 weeks has been nothing but broken up easterlies that are only slightly enhanced compared to normal. That's why the warm pool has continued to strengthen and expand despite no WWB in the eastern Pacific.

Though it doesn't mean there won't be an El Niño, but a warm pool does not guarantee an El Niño or even a significant change in SSTAs.

Take 2014, for example - the 2015/16 El Niño did not really get going until another strong warm pool surfaced.

[img]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f216f45e866ca2ecaa55bbdfe30d27a3c092a7f9493367af43f008eaecc8b4ca.gif[img]

I agree. But at the same time we can't dismiss it. Also 2014 was as an El Nino year and the Atlantic hurricane season that year had below average activity.

Historically speaking, we have till June to see if an El Nino will be here for the 2018 hurricane season.

[Kingarabian]

We're behind 2006 (0.0) and 2009 (-0.2) at this time of year.

The BOM has Nino 3.4 @ -0.2C

[NotSparta]

That's what happened in late March -- and almost every time when a WWB is generated due to MJO activity. As the MJO enters and leaves the MC, the westerly anomalies start shifting further east and closer to the dateline.

As for the trades, like I said maybe around a month ago, we're going to need a substantial enhancement of the trades for a long period of time to wipe out what has already developed and situated beneath the surface. What we've been seeing the past 4 weeks has been nothing but broken up easterlies that are only slightly enhanced compared to normal. That's why the warm pool has continued to strengthen and expand despite no WWB in the eastern Pacific.

Though it doesn't mean there won't be an El Niño, but a warm pool does not guarantee an El Niño or even a significant change in SSTAs.

Take 2014, for example - the 2015/16 El Niño did not really get going until another strong warm pool surfaced.

[img]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f216f45e866ca2ecaa55bbdfe30d27a3c092a7f9493367af43f008eaecc8b4ca.gif[img]

I agree. But at the same time we can't dismiss it. Also 2014 was as an El Nino year and the Atlantic hurricane season that year had below average activity.

Historically speaking, we have till June to see if an El Nino will be here for the 2018 hurricane season.

Yes it could change things but it won't always. It definitely needs to be watched.

El Niño did develop, but not until OND. And yes, due to the hyperactive EPAC that year, the ATL had shear and dry/sinking air so activity was greatly reduced, so El Niño is not the only factor.

It is early still, so we'll see how things evolve. El Niño and neutral seem reasonable for this year, imo unlikely that another Niña comes into place with atmosphere beginning to shift against another

[NotSparta]

We're behind 2006 (0.0) and 2009 (-0.2) at this time of year.

The BOM has Nino 3.4 @ -0.2C

I'm using CPC weekly data for both, just so that it is an apples-to-apples comparison, since BoM could have differences

[Kingarabian]

Though it doesn't mean there won't be an El Niño, but a warm pool does not guarantee an El Niño or even a significant change in SSTAs.

Take 2014, for example - the 2015/16 El Niño did not really get going until another strong warm pool surfaced.

[img]https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f216f45e866ca2ecaa55bbdfe30d27a3c092a7f9493367af43f008eaecc8b4ca.gif[img]

I agree. But at the same time we can't dismiss it. Also 2014 was as an El Nino year and the Atlantic hurricane season that year had below average activity.

Historically speaking, we have till June to see if an El Nino will be here for the 2018 hurricane season.

Yes it could change things but it won't always. It definitely needs to be watched.

El Niño did develop, but not until OND. And yes, due to the hyperactive EPAC that year, the ATL had shear and dry/sinking air so activity was greatly reduced, so El Niño is not the only factor.

It is early still, so we'll see how things evolve. El Niño and neutral seem reasonable for this year, imo unlikely that another Niña comes into place with atmosphere beginning to shift against another

I agree with you completely. +PMM and EPAC activity plays a huge role. Depends on where the walker cell situates itself this year.

[Kingarabian]

Also want to point out that the GFS and other models do not always verify in their 850mb wind forecasts:

Here is the GFS's prediction for April 13-14 which had enhanced trades:


And here is what actually happened:


Also we can see that the deeper westerly anomalies are gone in today's forecast.

[Kingarabian]

Snapshot of the buoys @ 120 Meters deep:

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/986198151777300480



 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/986555734279184385




Interestingly, the JMA forecast maintains a slightly-cooler-than-average NINO 1+2 and strengthens a –PDO through August. Setup looks to be warm neutral or perhaps Modoki.

[Kingarabian]

12Z Euro run shows a negative to neutral SOI for the next 7 days. Let's see if future runs show the same setup. Would coincide well with the CFS 850MB wind forecast of below normal trades/weak westerlies returning in the EP near the beginning of May.

[NDG]

Those cooler surface waters over Nino 1+2 are making their way westward, now over Nino 3
Those -0.8 C are still lingering.
Also notice that the easterly trades are still pretty strong across the eastern Pacific, this could cancel the warmer than average subsurface waters as they reach the surface.

[CyclonicFury]

12Z Euro run shows a negative to neutral SOI for the next 7 days. Let's see if future runs show the same setup. Would coincide well with the CFS 850MB wind forecast of below normal trades/weak westerlies returning in the EP near the beginning of May.

Next WWB looks much weaker than the last two. Trades do look likely to slow but to me it just does not scream El Niño before the fall. Yes, the subsurface warm pool is impressive, but I think it would take more than that to get an El Niño going.

[gatorcane]

I am thinking we won't be seeing an El Nino during the peak month of the Atlantic hurricane season. Perhaps warmer than normal SSTs further west out in the Central Pacific and perhaps a borderline "Modoki" El Nino. Neutral conditions look likely to me. The colder than normal SSTs just off the coast of South America look to be expanding and the Eastern EPAC south of Central America is really not above normal either.

[SFLcane]

That's quite the different in sst's across the main development region compared to 2017. But we shall see ways to go before ASO.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/987043199251353601




 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/987045094497898496

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

https://imgur.com/ywvMNzz


https://imgur.com/hcNuSTD
ENSO/SST Tracker (04/18/2018)

https://imgur.com/2ghlwJT

[Alyono]

This is looking like a rare setup where things could be favorable for both the Atlantic and for storms near Hawaii

Recon may be quite busy this year. May see something similar to 2016 where Hermine didn't get the normal coverage because there were far more important things to fly

[TheStormExpert]

This is looking like a rare setup where things could be favorable for both the Atlantic and for storms near Hawaii

Recon may be quite busy this year. May see something similar to 2016 where Hermine didn't get the normal coverage because there were far more important things to fly

The SST configuration looks anything but favorable for the Atlantic. Cooler than average SST’s in both the far north and off Africa in the MDR doesn’t scream favorable to me.

What’s your thoughts?