ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Icybubba]

WWB not looking very impressive in the latest forecast. Models have also backed off the idea of WPAC development which would also mean a weaker WWB. Fairly strong trades are expected to continue through early May. The subsurface warm pool is impressive but it is going to have a hard time reaching the surface if trades do not slow down east of the dateline soon.

It does seem like everyone is hellbent over what the ocean says and is talking about what the atmosphere says.
Anyways, yeah the trade winds are just too strong right now, the CFS is showing maybe El Nino by November

[NotSparta]

WWB not looking very impressive in the latest forecast. Models have also backed off the idea of WPAC development which would also mean a weaker WWB. Fairly strong trades are expected to continue through early May. The subsurface warm pool is impressive but it is going to have a hard time reaching the surface if trades do not slow down east of the dateline soon.

Look at 2014. It had a much warmer pool than 2018's with warmer starting SSTs. But the atmosphere wasn't in it, and it only produced modest warming. A full blown El Nino did not form until another warm pool came along with a much more favorable environment.

[Icybubba]

To lend to what I am saying, here's the latest CFS run, no sign of an El Nino during the peak season, this is likely due to the atmospheric conditions (Though keep in mind we are still behind the SPB

[Ntxw]

Some arguments could be made that 2014 was part of the larger multiyear Super event. ONI is unbroken from 2014-2016 in one swoop when OND hit. Some make it as a weak attempt, on the flip side it could be argued it was the early stages of something much bigger and longer lasting

As I mentioned earlier, some folks assume hurricane season is the meat of ENSO when that is not true, much longer

[Kingarabian]

I've been keeping a close eye on the Euro this past week. Its been walking a fine line between a negative or positive SOI for the first week of May. However its most recent runs have been getting more consistent and its showing much higher than normal pressures over Darwin. We're almost certain to see negative daily SOI values through Friday, so here's the numbers I derived from the 12z Euro starting on the 28th:

Code: Select all

Tahiti:               Darwin:         
April 28:1013.00         April 28:1011.50     -5
April 29:1013.00         April 29:1011.75     -5
April 30:1013.50         April 30:1012.50     -5
May 1:1014.00            May 1: 1012.50       -4
May 2:1014.00            May 2: 1012.50       -4
May 3:1014.00            May 3: 1012.75       -7
May 4:1013.25            May 4: 1013.00       -12
May 5:1013.50            May 5: 1013.25       -15
 

Please note that these are just estimates and with such high pressures in both Tahiti and Darwin, local pressure fluctuations will play a huge role on what the daily SOI value will be.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/989639876977950720

[StruThiO]

90 day SOI has gone from 5.81 to 2.46 (via longpaddock) in 2 weeks. The anticipation of if we get a strong WWB in May/June is killing me

[Kingarabian]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/jcUkYFw.png[/ig]

90 day SOI has gone from 5.81 to 2.46 (via longpaddock) in 2 weeks. The anticipation of if we get a strong WWB in May/June is killing me

Today's 00z Euro echos its previous runs and shows the SOI continuing to drop through its 10 day forecast period. Wouldn't surprise me if we see a WWB in the CPAC/EPAC come up on the models starting next week.

[NotSparta]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/989835815550320647




This would hurt any WWBs wanting to form

[stormlover2013]

so what are yall saying el nino will form or will it be neutral?

[NotSparta]

so what are yall saying el nino will form or will it be neutral?

imo El Nino should show up towards the end of the year

[stormlover2013]

thanks

[tolakram]

Mid May and maybe we have a better idea IMO, until then everything discussed, and it IS worth discussing, can change on a dime.


https://i.imgur.com/UcvHH6K.png

I don't think el nino is a foregone conclusion, even if just looking at the odds, which are more skillful this time of year than forecasts.

My guess, just for fun, is cold neutral rather than warm neutral. It would actually be unusual to have even a weak el nino this close to a very strong el nino. So far, since record keeping began, it hasn't happened. -< Not a lot of data though.

Will be very interesting to follow the progress, or lack thereof, over the coming months.

[CyclonicFury]

Mid May and maybe we have a better idea IMO, until then everything discussed, and it IS worth discussing, can change on a dime.


https://i.imgur.com/UcvHH6K.png

I don't think el nino is a foregone conclusion, even if just looking at the odds, which are more skillful this time of year than forecasts.

My guess, just for fun, is cold neutral rather than warm neutral. It would actually be unusual to have even a weak el nino this close to a very strong el nino. So far, since record keeping began, it hasn't happened. -< Not a lot of data though.

Will be very interesting to follow the progress, or lack thereof, over the coming months.

I agree with El Niño not being a “forgone conclusion.” There has been a lot of 2009 mentions on here. While 2009 had a similar base state to now, that does not mean that we will see an identical ENSO evolution to 2009. I would probably give at least a 50% chance of El Niño forming this year, but most likely not until September or later.

[Ntxw]

I certainly agree El Nino is not a foregone conclusion. In fact most here agree some sort of neutral the next few months is likely. What we are discussing is the progression of the Ocean and atmosphere and what it *MAY* do down the road beyond just what implications it may portray more than just the Atlantic hurricane season, as some here tends to base it by. We've seen some foundation shifts toward building an El Nino but there are stumbling blocks.

2009 is brought up because it has the closest set up to today. It does not mean we will achieve what 2009 did. If you see a better year we're all open to analogs!

[Ntxw]

Per TAO/Triton my best guess for Monday's update will be -0.1C

[LarryWx]

I certainly agree El Nino is not a foregone conclusion. In fact most here agree some sort of neutral the next few months is likely. What we are discussing is the progression of the Ocean and atmosphere and what it *MAY* do down the road beyond just what implications it may portray more than just the Atlantic hurricane season, as some here tends to base it by. We've seen some foundation shifts toward building an El Nino but there are stumbling blocks.

2009 is brought up because it has the closest set up to today. It does not mean we will achieve what 2009 did. If you see a better year we're all open to analogs!

That progression of the atmosphere as manifested by -SOIs in advance of Nino 3.4 SST anomalies actually getting into Nino territory also needs to be considered. Solid -SOI periods, even before El Nino starts, are generally not conducive toward active Atlantic periods as little as one month later.

Also, I've detected an overall subtle bias here of not wanting to interpret indicators as favoring an inactive Atlantic season. This doesn't at all apply to everyone but I think the subtle bias is real. I read things year after year like "this may have a quieting effect but not before the meat of the season." That's not surprising as this is a tropical forum that attracts people who prefer an active season. Regardless, I still think this is the best tropical wx forum out there by far.

[NDG]

Per TAO/Triton my best guess for Monday's update will be -0.1C

A more detailed image paints a different image, IMO.
Still a big chunk of -0.6C to -0.8C on the east side of Nino 3.4
I would say near -0.3C to -0.2C is the current reading, based on the average between areas of -0.8C to +0.4C, but I've been wrong before

[tolakram]

Also, I've detected an overall subtle bias here of not wanting to interpret indicators as favoring an inactive Atlantic season. This doesn't at all apply to everyone but I think the subtle bias is real. I read things year after year like "this may have a quieting effect but not before the meat of the season." That's not surprising as this is a tropical forum that attracts people who prefer an active season. Regardless, I still think this is the best tropical wx forum out there by far.

Maybe, with some, but I prefer slow seasons, less work. They pay here sucks, plus no overtime.

Statistically speaking I believe cold neutral is favored. This is completely ignoring current patterns and only looking at the past. That's why I think it's worthwhile to present data and arguments, so we can see how things turn out in a few months AND if we had any real clues early on.

[Ntxw]

Per TAO/Triton my best guess for Monday's update will be -0.1C

[img]http://i68.tinypic.com/qrhqie.png

A more detailed image paints a different image, IMO.
Still a big chunk of -0.6C to -0.8C on the east side of Nino 3.4
I would say near -0.3C to -0.2C is the current reading, based on the average between areas of -0.8C to +0.4C, but I've been wrong before

https://i.imgur.com/5MUamDV.png

I came to that conclusion extrapolating comparing the week prior. While I can agree on another -0.2C reading, I don't think the changes merit net cooling when comparing apples to apples.