Kingarabian wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:
That graphic shows a temporarily feature, a CCKW situating over the IO moving into the WPAC. The correct term is Nina type forcing. If we were in a Nina background state, it would've been a permanent feature observed since the beginning of the year.
Do you know what the AAM has been like? I've heard that has been negative
Also, it's telling that CCKWs are able to produce Nina type forcing yet it's a struggle to have Nino like forcing
I believe we've had more Nino type forcing than Nina for the majority of the year. That's why we've seen repeated WWB's and two downwelling Kelvin wave in the subsurface.
But like NDG said, it's essentially what neutral-ENSO is. You're going to see both sides present until one eventually takes over.
I feel like I may come off as argumentative here, but I do not mean to be. Just debating the complexity of ENSO
I'd say we've had equally Niño and Niña forcing this year. There definitely has been a good bit of the NINO forcing this year, but it has been balanced. That's why cool-neutral ENSO is currently in place instead of warm-neutral at this point in most Niño years.
While we have had WWBs this year, it seems that either they're incorrectly positioned, or dominated by trades that mostly neutralize them. IMO, there's really only been one WWB that has changed the ENSO state more than the normal seasonal warming at the end of a Niña, at the end of March. That's not a good sign, especially since there's always a WWB like that during that time of year (wasn't it the more amplified winter MJO?) anyway, that caused the current kelvin wave to warm though.
This last point is true, we have had subsurface activity, which is making me think we are destined for a weak El Niño during fall. It's whether it can move or stays stuck, but the warming towards the east is encouraging.
BTW, you seem to agree there will be El Niño this year. What kind of configuration are you thinking?
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and
in no way is official. Please refer to
http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.
My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon:
http://cyclonicwx.com