ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1645
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#9461 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 6:27 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

No offense to BAMWX, but they loosely use the word "Nina background forcing" on Twitter. Anytime they see easterlies on the Euro or the temperatures @ Nino 3.4 dropping they say Nina forcing. The overall background state is not La Nina anymore, when you look at the Nino regions, sub surface, and wind activity. We're in dead neutral.


Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#9462 Postby NDG » Thu May 24, 2018 6:42 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

No offense to BAMWX, but they loosely use the word "Nina background forcing" on Twitter. Anytime they see easterlies on the Euro or the temperatures @ Nino 3.4 dropping they say Nina forcing. The overall background state is not La Nina anymore, when you look at the Nino regions, sub surface, and wind activity. We're in dead neutral.


I agree we are dead neutral, but that is what neutral is all about when there are episodes when the atmosphere acts like a La Nina and episodes when it looks like an El Nino.
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 14933
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#9463 Postby NDG » Thu May 24, 2018 6:46 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

No offense to BAMWX, but they loosely use the word "Nina background forcing" on Twitter. Anytime they see easterlies on the Euro or the temperatures @ Nino 3.4 dropping they say Nina forcing. The overall background state is not La Nina anymore, when you look at the Nino regions, sub surface, and wind activity. We're in dead neutral.


Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising[/quote

Trade winds have actually picked up once again along the equator west of the dateline during the past week.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1645
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#9464 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 6:54 pm

NDG wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

No offense to BAMWX, but they loosely use the word "Nina background forcing" on Twitter. Anytime they see easterlies on the Euro or the temperatures @ Nino 3.4 dropping they say Nina forcing. The overall background state is not La Nina anymore, when you look at the Nino regions, sub surface, and wind activity. We're in dead neutral.


Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising[/quote

Trade winds have actually picked up once again along the equator west of the dateline during the past week.

Image



CDAS appears west biased or something, it shows weak MDR trades which is definitely NOT the case
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9465 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 6:56 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

No offense to BAMWX, but they loosely use the word "Nina background forcing" on Twitter. Anytime they see easterlies on the Euro or the temperatures @ Nino 3.4 dropping they say Nina forcing. The overall background state is not La Nina anymore, when you look at the Nino regions, sub surface, and wind activity. We're in dead neutral.


Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising


That graphic shows a temporarily feature, a CCKW situating over the IO moving into the WPAC. The correct term is Nina type forcing. If we were in a Nina background state, it would've been a permanent feature observed since the beginning of the year.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9466 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 6:58 pm

NotSparta wrote:
NDG wrote:
NotSparta wrote:


Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising[/quote

Trade winds have actually picked up once again along the equator west of the dateline during the past week.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W3lSqvM.gif[img]



CDAS appears west biased or something, it shows weak MDR trades which is definitely NOT the case


Its the average of the past 4 days. The GFS, Euro, and CFS both show the same thing.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1645
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#9467 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 6:58 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

No offense to BAMWX, but they loosely use the word "Nina background forcing" on Twitter. Anytime they see easterlies on the Euro or the temperatures @ Nino 3.4 dropping they say Nina forcing. The overall background state is not La Nina anymore, when you look at the Nino regions, sub surface, and wind activity. We're in dead neutral.


Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising


That graphic shows a temporarily feature, a CCKW situating over the IO moving into the WPAC. The correct term is Nina type forcing. If we were in a Nina background state, it would've been a permanent feature observed since the beginning of the year.


Do you know what the AAM has been like? I've heard that has been negative

Also, it's telling that CCKWs are able to produce Nina type forcing yet it's a struggle to have Nino like forcing
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9468 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 7:01 pm

NDG wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

No offense to BAMWX, but they loosely use the word "Nina background forcing" on Twitter. Anytime they see easterlies on the Euro or the temperatures @ Nino 3.4 dropping they say Nina forcing. The overall background state is not La Nina anymore, when you look at the Nino regions, sub surface, and wind activity. We're in dead neutral.


Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising[/quote

Trade winds have actually picked up once again along the equator west of the dateline during the past week.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W3lSqvM.gif[img]


Yeah they certainly have though nothing as potent as what the Euro and GFS were forecasting last week. Also the trades have been non existent in the EPAC for the majority of May.. Wondering why Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 haven't warmed yet.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1645
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#9469 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 7:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
NDG wrote:
Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising[/quote

Trade winds have actually picked up once again along the equator west of the dateline during the past week.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W3lSqvM.gif[img]



CDAS appears west biased or something, it shows weak MDR trades which is definitely NOT the case


Its the average of the past 4 days. The GFS, Euro, and CFS both show the same thing.


Still, the MDR has cooled a lot during the past 4 days. Does not happen with slow trades
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9470 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 7:03 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising


That graphic shows a temporarily feature, a CCKW situating over the IO moving into the WPAC. The correct term is Nina type forcing. If we were in a Nina background state, it would've been a permanent feature observed since the beginning of the year.


Do you know what the AAM has been like? I've heard that has been negative

Also, it's telling that CCKWs are able to produce Nina type forcing yet it's a struggle to have Nino like forcing


I believe we've had more Nino type forcing than Nina for the majority of the year. That's why we've seen repeated WWB's and two downwelling Kelvin wave in the subsurface.

But like NDG said, it's essentially what neutral-ENSO is. You're going to see both sides present until one eventually takes over.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1645
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#9471 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 7:04 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
NotSparta wrote:


Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising


Trade winds have actually picked up once again along the equator west of the dateline during the past week.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W3lSqvM.gif[img]


Yeah they certainly have though nothing as potent as what the Euro and GFS were forecasting last week. Also the trades have been non existent in the EPAC for the majority of May.. Wondering why Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 haven't warmed yet.[/quote]

Because trades are normal there, and all the nonexistent trades are further north, unrelated to ENSO. They're part of that CAG event
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9472 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 7:06 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:

CDAS appears west biased or something, it shows weak MDR trades which is definitely NOT the case


Its the average of the past 4 days. The GFS, Euro, and CFS both show the same thing.


Still, the MDR has cooled a lot during the past 4 days. Does not happen with slow trades


Yeah you're right, and that's a mystery. We have a lot to learn about the way the winds work in regards to warming or cooling SST's. Because the same can be said about Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. Non existent trades over these regions yet no warming.
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9473 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 24, 2018 7:12 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:
Maybe not, but those two graphics show Nina state atmospherically ( but not winds i think), which is not all that surprising


Trade winds have actually picked up once again along the equator west of the dateline during the past week.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W3lSqvM.gif[img]


Yeah they certainly have though nothing as potent as what the Euro and GFS were forecasting last week. Also the trades have been non existent in the EPAC for the majority of May.. Wondering why Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 haven't warmed yet.


Because trades are normal there, and all the nonexistent trades are further north, unrelated to ENSO. They're part of that CAG event[/quote]

I'm pretty certain there's been westerly anomalies for the majority of May, and before the CAG event between 5S-5N and 120W-90W (nino region coordinates).

Image
2 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 21484
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#9474 Postby Ntxw » Thu May 24, 2018 7:16 pm

I'm going to guess the next sig WWB event will occur near the DL sometime mid and late June. Following the movement of the MJO as well as 200hpa VP anomalies as forcing comes out of the Maritime/WPAC. Current WWB over the IO is part of this initiation.

Image
3 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1645
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#9475 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 7:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
That graphic shows a temporarily feature, a CCKW situating over the IO moving into the WPAC. The correct term is Nina type forcing. If we were in a Nina background state, it would've been a permanent feature observed since the beginning of the year.


Do you know what the AAM has been like? I've heard that has been negative

Also, it's telling that CCKWs are able to produce Nina type forcing yet it's a struggle to have Nino like forcing


I believe we've had more Nino type forcing than Nina for the majority of the year. That's why we've seen repeated WWB's and two downwelling Kelvin wave in the subsurface.

But like NDG said, it's essentially what neutral-ENSO is. You're going to see both sides present until one eventually takes over.



I feel like I may come off as argumentative here, but I do not mean to be. Just debating the complexity of ENSO :)

I'd say we've had equally Niño and Niña forcing this year. There definitely has been a good bit of the NINO forcing this year, but it has been balanced. That's why cool-neutral ENSO is currently in place instead of warm-neutral at this point in most Niño years.

While we have had WWBs this year, it seems that either they're incorrectly positioned, or dominated by trades that mostly neutralize them. IMO, there's really only been one WWB that has changed the ENSO state more than the normal seasonal warming at the end of a Niña, at the end of March. That's not a good sign, especially since there's always a WWB like that during that time of year (wasn't it the more amplified winter MJO?) anyway, that caused the current kelvin wave to warm though.

This last point is true, we have had subsurface activity, which is making me think we are destined for a weak El Niño during fall. It's whether it can move or stays stuck, but the warming towards the east is encouraging.

BTW, you seem to agree there will be El Niño this year. What kind of configuration are you thinking?
2 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
NotSparta
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 1645
Age: 22
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#9476 Postby NotSparta » Thu May 24, 2018 7:26 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Trade winds have actually picked up once again along the equator west of the dateline during the past week.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/W3lSqvM.gif[img]


Yeah they certainly have though nothing as potent as what the Euro and GFS were forecasting last week. Also the trades have been non existent in the EPAC for the majority of May.. Wondering why Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 haven't warmed yet.


Because trades are normal there, and all the nonexistent trades are further north, unrelated to ENSO. They're part of that CAG event


I'm pretty certain there's been westerly anomalies for the majority of May, and before the CAG event between 5S-5N and 120W-90W (nino region coordinates).

Image[/quote]

Yes, there do appear to be those westerly anoms, but not as strong as northward. Maybe there's something causing the lack of warming in Niño 1+2, maybe southerly winds?
2 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, with lots of tropical wx graphics, including satellite and recon: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9477 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 25, 2018 2:07 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Do you know what the AAM has been like? I've heard that has been negative

Also, it's telling that CCKWs are able to produce Nina type forcing yet it's a struggle to have Nino like forcing


I believe we've had more Nino type forcing than Nina for the majority of the year. That's why we've seen repeated WWB's and two downwelling Kelvin wave in the subsurface.

But like NDG said, it's essentially what neutral-ENSO is. You're going to see both sides present until one eventually takes over.



I feel like I may come off as argumentative here, but I do not mean to be. Just debating the complexity of ENSO :)

I'd say we've had equally Niño and Niña forcing this year. There definitely has been a good bit of the NINO forcing this year, but it has been balanced. That's why cool-neutral ENSO is currently in place instead of warm-neutral at this point in most Niño years.

While we have had WWBs this year, it seems that either they're incorrectly positioned, or dominated by trades that mostly neutralize them. IMO, there's really only been one WWB that has changed the ENSO state more than the normal seasonal warming at the end of a Niña, at the end of March. That's not a good sign, especially since there's always a WWB like that during that time of year (wasn't it the more amplified winter MJO?) anyway, that caused the current kelvin wave to warm though.

This last point is true, we have had subsurface activity, which is making me think we are destined for a weak El Niño during fall. It's whether it can move or stays stuck, but the warming towards the east is encouraging.

BTW, you seem to agree there will be El Niño this year. What kind of configuration are you thinking
?


Not sure at the moment. Look under Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 on the buoys and you can see that warmth in these eastern regions is now just as comparable as the core of the subsurface pool.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9478 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 26, 2018 9:50 am

Eastern portion of the warm sub surface pool has finally responded to the lack of easterlies in this region. +3C anomalies quickly building and expanding.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 138973
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#9479 Postby cycloneye » Sun May 27, 2018 3:53 pm

CFSv2 is more bullish for El Niño to come by late Summer/Fall.

Image
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15432
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#9480 Postby Kingarabian » Sun May 27, 2018 4:18 pm

:uarrow: CFS getting very aggressive now calling for a weak but strengthening El Nino by ASO.

Seen some rapid development in regards to ENSO this past week:

The second downwelling Kelvin wave has now reached the EPAC:
Image

Drastic subsurface warming on the buoys:
Image

Due to the SOI being sharply positive this past week, the GFS is modeling out another trade burst over the CPAC but continues to have non existent trades in the EPAC for another week. So expect warming to continue in the subsurface:
Image

The Euro has the SOI negative all the way through the first week of June starting today or tomorrow. So after this trade burst, it's very likely we'll see another WWB in June.
3 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: duilaslol, Sciencerocks and 13 guests