ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

1C coverage has made its way into Nino 3.4 from 140-120W along and just north of Equator on the buoys. This is a significant change even from a week ago. Don't be surprised if we hit 0.5C this week though 0.4C seems likely averaged out.

Event is becoming more of a when, and how strong vs a what if in my opinion moving past the summer solstice. In terms of coverage in the sub surface and surface, we are somewhere between 2006 and 2009 even if the numerical weekly numbers aren't there yet but will be shortly. 2014 had a weaker surface but stronger sub-surface. My early guess is we see a weak-mod Nino perhaps stronger than 2006 and less than 2009. A smaller hybrid to 2009 perhaps?



My guess is July or August the watch may be upgraded

[Kingarabian]

1C coverage has made its way into Nino 3.4 from 140-120W along and just north of Equator on the buoys. This is a significant change even from a week ago. Don't be surprised if we hit 0.5C this week though 0.4C seems likely averaged out.

Event is becoming more of a when, and how strong vs a what if in my opinion moving past the summer solstice. In terms of coverage in the sub surface and surface, we are somewhere between 2006 and 2009 even if the numerical weekly numbers aren't there yet but will be shortly. 2014 had a weaker surface but stronger sub-surface. My early guess is we see a weak-mod Nino perhaps stronger than 2006 and less than 2009. A smaller hybrid to 2009 perhaps?

[img]http://i66.tinypic.com/23p2zt.png[img]

My guess is July or August the watch may be upgraded

There's no question that the atmosphere has switched to El Nino, and that we've entered in an El Nino event.

Westerly wind anomalies have dominated the entire equatorial Pacific for the most of June. It's just a matter of time before the Nino regions SST readings shoot up.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/vMb6uF3
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[NotSparta]

1C coverage has made its way into Nino 3.4 from 140-120W along and just north of Equator on the buoys. This is a significant change even from a week ago. Don't be surprised if we hit 0.5C this week though 0.4C seems likely averaged out.

Event is becoming more of a when, and how strong vs a what if in my opinion moving past the summer solstice. In terms of coverage in the sub surface and surface, we are somewhere between 2006 and 2009 even if the numerical weekly numbers aren't there yet but will be shortly. 2014 had a weaker surface but stronger sub-surface. My early guess is we see a weak-mod Nino perhaps stronger than 2006 and less than 2009. A smaller hybrid to 2009 perhaps?

[img]http://i66.tinypic.com/23p2zt.png[img]

My guess is July or August the watch may be upgraded

There's no question that the atmosphere has switched to El Nino, and that we've entered in an El Nino event.

Westerly wind anomalies have dominated the entire equatorial Pacific for the most of June. It's just a matter of time before the Nino regions SST readings shoot up.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QUM4X81.png[/mg]

Sorry, but I want to nitpick a little since that's just me

Yes there are westerly wind anomalies, and the atmosphere has begun to cooperate. However, we are still in a neutral state, but it is transitioning nicely to Niño. Not that this would supress any Niño event, though. In fact, I'm starting to think a moderate El Niño is a definite possibility

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/0TYKwWX
Neutral.

[Kingarabian]

1C coverage has made its way into Nino 3.4 from 140-120W along and just north of Equator on the buoys. This is a significant change even from a week ago. Don't be surprised if we hit 0.5C this week though 0.4C seems likely averaged out.

Event is becoming more of a when, and how strong vs a what if in my opinion moving past the summer solstice. In terms of coverage in the sub surface and surface, we are somewhere between 2006 and 2009 even if the numerical weekly numbers aren't there yet but will be shortly. 2014 had a weaker surface but stronger sub-surface. My early guess is we see a weak-mod Nino perhaps stronger than 2006 and less than 2009. A smaller hybrid to 2009 perhaps?

[img]http://i66.tinypic.com/23p2zt.png[img]

My guess is July or August the watch may be upgraded

There's no question that the atmosphere has switched to El Nino, and that we've entered in an El Nino event.

Westerly wind anomalies have dominated the entire equatorial Pacific for the most of June. It's just a matter of time before the Nino regions SST readings shoot up.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QUM4X81.png[/mg]

Sorry, but I want to nitpick a little since that's just me

Yes there are westerly wind anomalies, and the atmosphere has begun to cooperate. However, we are still in a neutral state, but it is transitioning nicely to Niño. Not that this would supress any Niño event, though. In fact, I'm starting to think a moderate El Niño is a definite possibility

It's hard to see because very rarely does ENSO flip so suddenly, although we've had a lot of hints through late winter and the Spring (MJO activity, downwelling Kelvin's, lack of sustained strong trade bursts). It's almost impossible to see this much westerly anomalies dominating the entire Pacific ocean unless the background state allows it. Thus, I firmly believe it's almost impossible for ENSO to be in a neutral state, at least atmospherically. We may have been in neutral through May, but everything flipped during the first week of June.

[NotSparta]

There's no question that the atmosphere has switched to El Nino, and that we've entered in an El Nino event.

Westerly wind anomalies have dominated the entire equatorial Pacific for the most of June. It's just a matter of time before the Nino regions SST readings shoot up.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QUM4X81.png[/mg]

Sorry, but I want to nitpick a little since that's just me

Yes there are westerly wind anomalies, and the atmosphere has begun to cooperate. However, we are still in a neutral state, but it is transitioning nicely to Niño. Not that this would supress any Niño event, though. In fact, I'm starting to think a moderate El Niño is a definite possibility

It's hard to see because very rarely does ENSO flip so suddenly, although we've had a lot of hints through late winter and the Spring (MJO activity, downwelling Kelvin's, lack of sustained strong trade bursts). It's almost impossible to see this much westerly anomalies dominating the entire Pacific ocean unless the background state allows it. Thus, I firmly believe it's almost impossible for ENSO to be in a neutral state, at least atmospherically. We may have been in neutral through May, but everything flipped during the first week of June.

We are starting to get the factors for a Niño, especially towards the surface, but there appear to be a few factors missing. Usually, you don't get the complete coupling until a Niño event is underway, but that will come soon. Besides, there's enough support already to push it into Niño territory within a couple of months. I do agree with you though.

About those anomalies, it could be a dataset problem, I'm not seeing a robust signal like that anywhere else. However, trades are still weaker than normal there

[Kingarabian]

Sorry, but I want to nitpick a little since that's just me

Yes there are westerly wind anomalies, and the atmosphere has begun to cooperate. However, we are still in a neutral state, but it is transitioning nicely to Niño. Not that this would supress any Niño event, though. In fact, I'm starting to think a moderate El Niño is a definite possibility

It's hard to see because very rarely does ENSO flip so suddenly, although we've had a lot of hints through late winter and the Spring (MJO activity, downwelling Kelvin's, lack of sustained strong trade bursts). It's almost impossible to see this much westerly anomalies dominating the entire Pacific ocean unless the background state allows it. Thus, I firmly believe it's almost impossible for ENSO to be in a neutral state, at least atmospherically. We may have been in neutral through May, but everything flipped during the first week of June.

We are starting to get the factors for a Niño, especially towards the surface, but there appear to be a few factors missing. Usually, you don't get the complete coupling until a Niño event is underway, but that will come soon. Besides, there's enough support already to push it into Niño territory within a couple of months. I do agree with you though.

About those anomalies, it could be a dataset problem, I'm not seeing a robust signal like that anywhere else. However, trades are still weaker than normal there

The problem with index's like SST's and the SOI is that they have too much noise, and can be misleading. How I gauge the ENSO state is through the atmosphere and ocean, which is through MJO activity, sub surface activity, and 850mb wind activity. All three check out. It's a waiting game pretty much and I think the CPC agrees with their current update @ El Nino watch and the next update likely to be an El Nino warning.

[Twisted-core]

BOM

Southern Oscillation Index
The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) to 17 June was −2.2, and the 90-day SOI was +2.3. The SOI has been within the neutral range since late April.

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño. Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions.


https://imgur.com/I7Su6QL

Take the official data any way you wish too. But do consider it's actually scrutinized by scientists every month before official updates.


Sustained is the key word.

[Twisted-core]

https://imgur.com/RsoJS9S

Of note is the westerlies forecast in the ATL md.r

[hamburgerman7070]

Ntxw, wasn't the 2009-10 elniño more west based? I think it was. What about 2006-2007 niño?

[NDG]

'09 El Nino started eastern based in the summer then became central based in the fall & winter.

Code: Select all

              Nino1+2      Nino3        Nino3.4        Nino4
08JUL2009     23.0 1.1     26.7 0.9     28.0 0.7     29.2 0.4
28OCT2009     21.6 0.5     26.1 1.2     28.1 1.4     30.0 1.3

[Kingarabian]

BOM up to +0.48C.

[Ntxw]

Will be up to 0.4C later this morning with the CPC update

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 6/25/18 has Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C and that is up from the +0.2C that was in the June 18 update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NotSparta]

Subsurface warmed a bit too

[LarryWx]

The June Eurosip recently updated and is a little warmer than the May update with low end weak El Niño (near +0.5 in Niño 3.4) for ASO averaged out with it warming to near +0.6 in Oct. This near +0.5 compares to near +0.35 for ASO in the May update.

Consistent with this warming, it has even higher pressures in the MDR for ASO from near 30W westward through the Caribbean and the GOM vs the already pretty high pressures shown in the May update. This update now has slightly higher pressure than the June ASO forecast for 2014. The June forecast for ASO 2015 is still somewhat higher with the pressures and is the only June forecast showing higher ASO pressures vs 2018. The message is clearly to expect a pretty quiet season in the MDR through the GOM overall with perhaps near normal north of 30-35N east of the CONUS to possibly up to near the NE US/SE Canada assuming this forecast has a decent clue.

[NotSparta]

The June Eurosip recently updated and is a little warmer than the May update with low end weak El Niño (near +0.5 in Niño 3.4) for ASO averaged out with it warming to near +0.6 in Oct. This near +0.5 compares to near +0.35 for ASO in the May update.

Consistent with this warming, it has even higher pressures in the MDR for ASO from near 30W westward through the Caribbean and the GOM vs the already pretty high pressures shown in the May update. This update now has slightly higher pressure than the June ASO forecast for 2014. The June forecast for ASO 2015 is still somewhat higher with the pressures and is the only June forecast showing higher ASO pressures vs 2018. The message is clearly to expect a pretty quiet season in the MDR through the GOM overall with perhaps near normal north of 30-35N east of the CONUS to possibly up to near the NE US/SE Canada assuming this forecast has a decent clue.

Are you still thinking warm neutral for ASO? It's looking increasingly like El Niño to me

[LarryWx]

The June Eurosip recently updated and is a little warmer than the May update with low end weak El Niño (near +0.5 in Niño 3.4) for ASO averaged out with it warming to near +0.6 in Oct. This near +0.5 compares to near +0.35 for ASO in the May update.

Consistent with this warming, it has even higher pressures in the MDR for ASO from near 30W westward through the Caribbean and the GOM vs the already pretty high pressures shown in the May update. This update now has slightly higher pressure than the June ASO forecast for 2014. The June forecast for ASO 2015 is still somewhat higher with the pressures and is the only June forecast showing higher ASO pressures vs 2018. The message is clearly to expect a pretty quiet season in the MDR through the GOM overall with perhaps near normal north of 30-35N east of the CONUS to possibly up to near the NE US/SE Canada assuming this forecast has a decent clue.

Are you still thinking warm neutral for ASO? It's looking increasingly like El Niño to me

i'm going to do some more analysis when I get a chance and I'll try to get back to you with my updated opinion. If I were to maintain warm neutral prediction for ASO, it would be with less confidence. But I may decide to abandon that and just assume that the May Eurosip ASO Nino 3.4 prediction will for the first time turn out to be one category too cool.

[Eric Webb]

The Eurosip has an obvious +ENSO bias however this should be a warning/lesson to all here that you shouldn't put all your eggs into one basket especially when it comes to ENSO. Forecasting ENSO based on large-scale conditions at hand is one thing, but forecasting the conditions based on the expected tendencies of the model that's predicting ENSO is definitely not the way to approach this because it implants another unnecessary layer of error into said forecast.