LarryWx wrote:Kingarabian wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/z6AREqI.png[img]
2018's subsurface almost looks like a carbon copy of 2012's except that 2012 had a serious upwelling Kelvin wave at this point.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/I7Hmd3h.png[img]
2018 is eerily similar to 2012 not just in terms of subsurface and surface, but it also is similar in terms of a pretty solid negative June SOI/neutral July SOI. August of 2012 SOI went back to a pretty solid negative. Will 2018? OTOH, they aren't similar at all with regard to April-June OLR. Whereas 2012 was neutral, 2018 was the most positive of any year since at least 1975. Strongly +OLR in AMJ has a pretty good correlation to la Nina. 2012 is one of the main reasons I say not to yet bet the farm on El Nino later this year even though it is favored. Another reason is the record +OLR for AMJ. Based on that, alone, one could easily think La Nina is on the way.
Very good points, Larry. But so far this year, we haven't seen any oceanic response that would favor a La Nina. 2012 at this time, it was much easier to consider a La Nina due to a potent upwelling Kelvin Wave.