ENSO Updates

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NDG
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10021 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 17, 2018 6:10 am

On today's update Nino 3.4 stays at +0.3C
Nino 4 down to +0.4C
Nino 3 up to +0.4C
Nino 1+2 up to +0.2C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10022 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:34 am

I just saw the weekly update and see that OHC rose to a high for the year of near +1.00. That tells me that based on analogs that it is going to be difficult for there to not be El Niño as we proceed through this meteorological autumn. So, El Niño, despite the well forecasted pause til now, appears to be on track.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10023 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 17, 2018 8:38 am

CPC Weekly update text advisory as Niño 3.4 remains at +0.3C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10024 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 17, 2018 2:07 pm

NDG wrote:On today's update Nino 3.4 stays at +0.3C
Nino 4 down to +0.4C
Nino 3 up to +0.4C
Nino 1+2 up to +0.2C

Interesting.In regards to winter for California and Texas, it's possible for a wetter winter this year if Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 continue raising.

But we've yet to be able to sustain +0.5C consistently. At this point, we may run out of months to meet ONI. However with the sub surface this warm, I think if we continue to get that seasonal late winter strong WWB, it raises the chances to see a stronger El Nino materialize next year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10025 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 22, 2018 4:23 pm

Looks like a solid WWB west of the dateline on the latest GFS. Moving forward to next week we could see relaxed trades over the CPAC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10026 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:00 pm

El Nino is still very much on track imo. Besides the firm support already from the last several months of +0.80+ subsurface, the subsurface has actually been warming even further the last few weeks. It appears to be near +1.00 now and warming even more. With this latest warming, we’re just about to the point where there are no analogs that didn’t end up as El Niño by late autumn. The lone holdout had been 2012, but it didn’t warm to +1.00 in the subsurface around now. Instead it cooled from +0.80 in August to +0.40 in September. So, we can now say goodbye to 2012 as an analog and hello to El Niño in all likelihood. Keep in mind that this is following the Eurosip forecasts back to May, which had a hiatus in 3.4 SST warming in late summer before a resumption starting around now.

Modoki? Looking at where the subsurface warmth appears to be headed toward the surface and considering the TAO based buoy map, that is suggesting warmth concentrating more in the W portion than E portion of 3.4 currently. That tells me Modoki looking good.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10027 Postby NotSparta » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:12 pm

LarryWx wrote:El Nino is still very much on track imo. Besides the firm support already from the last several months of +0.80+ subsurface, the subsurface has actually been warming even further the last few weeks. It appears to be near +1.00 now and warming even more. With this latest warming, we’re just about to the point where there are no analogs that didn’t end up as El Niño by late autumn. The lone holdout had been 2012, but it didn’t warm to +1.00 in the subsurface around now. Instead it cooled from +0.80 in August to +0.40 in September. So, we can now say goodbye to 2012 as an analog and hello to El Niño in all likelihood. Keep in mind that this is following the Eurosip forecasts back to May, which had a hiatus in 3.4 SST warming in late summer before a resumption starting around now.

Modoki? Looking at where the subsurface warmth appears to be headed toward the surface and considering the TAO based buoy map, that is suggesting warmth concentrating more in the W portion than E portion of 3.4 currently. That tells me Modoki looking good.


Looks to be delayed, not denied given very warm subsfc
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10028 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Sep 22, 2018 8:18 pm

NotSparta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:El Nino is still very much on track imo. Besides the firm support already from the last several months of +0.80+ subsurface, the subsurface has actually been warming even further the last few weeks. It appears to be near +1.00 now and warming even more. With this latest warming, we’re just about to the point where there are no analogs that didn’t end up as El Niño by late autumn. The lone holdout had been 2012, but it didn’t warm to +1.00 in the subsurface around now. Instead it cooled from +0.80 in August to +0.40 in September. So, we can now say goodbye to 2012 as an analog and hello to El Niño in all likelihood. Keep in mind that this is following the Eurosip forecasts back to May, which had a hiatus in 3.4 SST warming in late summer before a resumption starting around now.

Modoki? Looking at where the subsurface warmth appears to be headed toward the surface and considering the TAO based buoy map, that is suggesting warmth concentrating more in the W portion than E portion of 3.4 currently. That tells me Modoki looking good.


Looks to be delayed, not denied given very warm subsfc


Well to be honest the subsurface has been warm and El Nino-esque since the spring. We haven't seen a chain reaction of WWBs over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. So I dont know what's going on...
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10029 Postby NotSparta » Sat Sep 22, 2018 9:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
LarryWx wrote:El Nino is still very much on track imo. Besides the firm support already from the last several months of +0.80+ subsurface, the subsurface has actually been warming even further the last few weeks. It appears to be near +1.00 now and warming even more. With this latest warming, we’re just about to the point where there are no analogs that didn’t end up as El Niño by late autumn. The lone holdout had been 2012, but it didn’t warm to +1.00 in the subsurface around now. Instead it cooled from +0.80 in August to +0.40 in September. So, we can now say goodbye to 2012 as an analog and hello to El Niño in all likelihood. Keep in mind that this is following the Eurosip forecasts back to May, which had a hiatus in 3.4 SST warming in late summer before a resumption starting around now.

Modoki? Looking at where the subsurface warmth appears to be headed toward the surface and considering the TAO based buoy map, that is suggesting warmth concentrating more in the W portion than E portion of 3.4 currently. That tells me Modoki looking good.


Looks to be delayed, not denied given very warm subsfc


Well to be honest the subsurface has been warm and El Nino-esque since the spring. We haven't seen a chain reaction of WWBs over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. So I dont know what's going on...


I guess when you said this year's ENSO would be interesting, you were right :lol:

Still thinking the pent up heat allows a +ENSO event to get going in 2019
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10030 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:40 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10031 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 23, 2018 7:49 am

LarryWx wrote:I just saw the weekly update and see that OHC rose to a high for the year of near +1.00. That tells me that based on analogs that it is going to be difficult for there to not be El Niño as we proceed through this meteorological autumn. So, El Niño, despite the well forecasted pause til now, appears to be on track.


I'm not a big ENSO analyst but NOAA is looking at the S tier of CONUS to be stormy this winter and that usually means El Niño.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10032 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:32 am

CPC weekly update of 9/24/18 has Niño 3.4 remaining at +0.3C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10033 Postby tolakram » Mon Sep 24, 2018 9:48 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10034 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Sep 24, 2018 3:08 pm

This message is for the ones who know about elniño laniña, etc. Do we get to weak niño before winter starts or not? If not, how come? The euro has been consistent on us getting to that range sooner or later. Also, with either a neutral or weak niño for winter most likely, what do we need to watch for to signal a possibly cold and stormy winter may evolve? We can pretty much put 2009-10 to bed. Way too many things different about that one compared to this one imo.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10035 Postby NotSparta » Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:52 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10036 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 26, 2018 11:26 pm

Wow, look at how much 3.4 warmed per CDAS at Tidbits site just during the last 5 days!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.png
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10037 Postby NotSparta » Thu Sep 27, 2018 5:20 am

LarryWx wrote:Wow, look at how much 3.4 warmed per CDAS at Tidbits site just during the last 5 days!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.png


Since it updates 4x daily, I find it extremely noisy, but looking at the larger trend, it is a significant change
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10038 Postby Ntxw » Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:01 pm

El Nino has just about arrived. A bit late but came no less. By all figures next update on Monday should be 0.5C or greater. The winds, SOI all paint the picture. Given the seasonal tendencies and shifting climo it will be a steady climb until winter.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10039 Postby Ntxw » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:11 am

To follow up, it would not be surprising if things ramp up to moderate readings heading into late Fall. Things have really escalated the past week.

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One of the strangest things to look back on is 2009. In September the El Nino really fell off before making a deep run later. 2014 remained week but steady enough to get classified later in the winter. The quirks of the different flavors of El Nino.

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10040 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:19 am

Sep SOI comes in at El Niño favoring sub -8. I’m now giving 90% chance for ONI based El Niño.

Tidbits 3.4 back down to near +0.43 after being near +0.67 just 2 days ago.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.png

However, the drop is no surprise after the rapid 0.7 rise the prior 7 days. It is heading down further but this drop is very likely just a temporary correction of sorts related to the day to day noise/volatility. I fully expect a resumption of warming later this week.
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