ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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cycloneye
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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10061 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:08 pm

CPC October update has 70%-75% chance of El Niño by November or December.

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during September, but with increasingly more widespread regions of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. Over the last month, all four Niño index values increased, with the latest weekly values in each region near +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also increased during the last month [Fig. 3], due to the expansion and strengthening of above-average temperatures at depth across the equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Convection was increasingly suppressed over Indonesia and around the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident over the western and east-central Pacific, with some of the strongest anomalies occurring over the eastern Pacific during the past week. Upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Overall, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions reflected ENSO-neutral, but with recent trends indicative of a developing El Niño.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to form during the fall and continue through the winter [Fig. 6]. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, consistent with the recent strengthening of westerly wind anomalies and positive temperature trends in the surface and subsurface ocean. In summary, El Niño is favored to form in the next couple of months and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (70-75% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10062 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:11 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10063 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:32 pm

The ENSO blog offers more analysis to what CPC has in the monthly update.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... k-or-treat
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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10064 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:52 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10065 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:35 pm

:uarrow:

In other words, we probably don't really know what this thing is going to do? :P
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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10066 Postby chaser1 » Thu Oct 11, 2018 8:27 pm

AnnularCane wrote::uarrow:

In other words, we probably don't really know what this thing is going to do? :P


Funny, AND legit. Hopefully this won't turn into the
(Hurricane) "Michael of all Nino's"
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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10067 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:49 am

We know well what is happening, one doesn't really need to guess. 1C has overspread basically all regions (bound by 5N-5S where ENSO is calculated) with 1.5C regions are starting to pop up. Given the slow nature of SSTs this will persist for many more weeks and months to come, it will be enough for 5 trimonthly, it will be declared after the first or second trimonthly especially if we are sitting in the 0.7 to 1C range by OND.

Image

Below the surface 4C has inked. As it pushes east, those 4C anomalies will turn 5C+ as climo there is different. OHC now fully supports a moderate El Nino.

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Spatially using the same week we are close to if not ahead of 2009. Ahead of 2014, and just behind 2002.

2002
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2009
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2014
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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10068 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:15 am

Looks like a nudge down to 0.6C at the update
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/15/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.6C

#10069 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:17 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/15/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.6C

#10070 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:50 am

Here is the text of the CPC Weekly update of 10/15/18 update that has Niño 3.4 at +0.6C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/15/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.6C

#10071 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 16, 2018 4:31 pm

The latest OHC release has it now warmer than +1.50 C! That is actually warm enough to not just support weak El Nino, but it even allows for a good chance for the rapidly building moderate El Nino that the newest UKMET has. Here's why I say that:

Oct OHC > +1/year/Nino strength
+2.56/1997/super
+2.07/1982/super
+1.91/2015/super
+1.72/2002/moderate
+1.50/2018/????
+1.41/1991/strong
+1.12/1994/moderate
+1.04/2009/strong
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/15/18: Niño 3.4 down to +0.6C

#10072 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Oct 16, 2018 5:33 pm

LarryWx wrote:The latest OHC release has it now warmer than +1.50 C! That is actually warm enough to not just support weak El Nino, but it even allows for a good chance for the rapidly building moderate El Nino that the newest UKMET has. Here's why I say that:

Oct OHC > +1/year/Nino strength
+2.56/1997/super
+2.07/1982/super
+1.91/2015/super
+1.72/2002/moderate
+1.50/2018/????
+1.41/1991/strong
+1.12/1994/moderate
+1.04/2009/strong


These statistics and the strong downwelling Kelvin wave moving through could put us in contention to see a strong El Nino event. Let's see if the atmosphere allows it.
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Re: ENSO: CPC monthly update: El Niño comming in next couple of months

#10073 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Oct 17, 2018 10:17 pm



The warm Pacific is likely a factor for flooding in Texas.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10074 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:13 am

Big jump this week to 0.9C at the update
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/22/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10075 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:21 am

Text of the CPC Weekly update that has Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/22/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10076 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:38 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/22/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10077 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:37 am

Ntxw, I have a question. I know niño went up today to .9, but do we like it the way it is or do we want more warming further west still for a better chance at tropical forcing that would favor colder winter for us?
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/22/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10078 Postby Ntxw » Mon Oct 22, 2018 12:47 pm

hamburgerman7070 wrote:Ntxw, I have a question. I know niño went up today to .9, but do we like it the way it is or do we want more warming further west still for a better chance at tropical forcing that would favor colder winter for us?


We'd like a warming to continue a bit more. Somewhere in the 1.3 to 1.5C on the weeklies for a moderate Nino. If you are referring to good Texas snow winters.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/22/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10079 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Mon Oct 22, 2018 2:19 pm

Ntxw wrote:
hamburgerman7070 wrote:Ntxw, I have a question. I know niño went up today to .9, but do we like it the way it is or do we want more warming further west still for a better chance at tropical forcing that would favor colder winter for us?


We'd like a warming to continue a bit more. Somewhere in the 1.3 to 1.5C on the weeklies for a moderate Nino. If you are referring to good Texas snow winters.


I'm referring to the southern plains and deep south mainly since that is where we live.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 10/22/18: Niño 3.4 up to +0.9C

#10080 Postby storminabox » Mon Oct 22, 2018 7:59 pm

I haven’t looked at this thread for quite awhile, but it looks like an El Niño has finally gotten going. It is about time that this happened, especially after the tease that was this summer. I’m curious to see just how long it will persist.
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