ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Another jump up to +1.1C

[cycloneye]

Text from the Weekly CPC update of 10/29/18 that has Niño 3,4 up to +1.1C.In fact all the areas are on positive. IMO,the November CPC update (November 8) will have the first El Niño advisory.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[boca]

I wasn’t sure were to post this but why is the NAO always positive and occasionally negative?

[NotSparta]

I wasn’t sure were to post this but why is the NAO always positive and occasionally negative?

Usually it flucuates between the two, but this year it has been persistently positive

[Macrocane]

I wasn’t sure were to post this but why is the NAO always positive and occasionally negative?

Actually is a long term trend, it used o fluctuate more between positive and negative but in recent years it has stayed more in the positive phase.

[Ntxw]

Will be +1.2C with the update.

[cycloneye]

Will be +1.2C with the update.

IMO,this Thrusday's CPC monthly update will have the first El Niño advisory.

[Ntxw]

Will be +1.2C with the update.

IMO,this Thrusday's CPC monthly update will have the first El Niño advisory.

ASO came in at +0.4 which is pretty close which means 0ND will be the official start of the Nino and extend for 5+ trimonthlies.

[cycloneye]

CPC text of the weekly update:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1059504242485088257

[cycloneye]

No El Niño declaration yet on this November update.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
8 November 2018

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch


Synopsis: El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance).

ENSO-neutral continued during October, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All four Niño regions showed increased SST anomalies in October, with the latest weekly values near +1.0°C in the Niño-4, Niño-3.4 and Niño3 regions, and +0.2°C in the Niño-1+2 region [Fig. 2]. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) also continued [Fig. 3], due to the persistence of above-average temperatures at depth across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. However, atmospheric convection remained slightly suppressed near the Date Line and over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level westerly wind anomalies were observed over the eastern Pacific during October, while weak upper-level westerly wind anomalies were present over the far western Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were near zero. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through the rest of the fall and winter and into spring [Fig. 6]. The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~80% chance) and into spring (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

[cycloneye]

This is the CPC ENSO Blog where they discuss why no El Niño advisory yet.Below are extracts:

To qualify as El Niño conditions, though, we have to see evidence that the atmosphere is responding to the warm sea surface temperatures.

Another way to monitor the atmospheric circulation in the Pacific is to look at the amount of clouds or rainfall in the equatorial region. If the Walker circulation had weakened, we’d expect more clouds than average in the central Pacific, and less cloudiness over Indonesia. However, the cloud cover in the central Pacific was a little less than average last month. The amount of clouds/rainfall is also important because this drives the teleconnections that impact the Pacific-North America region. Right now there’s no evidence we’re seeing those teleconnections despite the ocean conditions being favorable.

It’s expected that the atmosphere will respond to the warmer surface temperatures… when it does, El Niño conditions will have arrived. In 2014, the ocean was above the El Niño threshold for several months, but the atmosphere was slow to respond. There are some key differences this time around (sea surface temperatures are a little warmer, and subsurface temperatures are much warmer), so we’re not predicting an identical outcome. Plus, one thing you can bet on is that nature will never behave exactly the same way twice.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -repeating

[Kingarabian]

At this rate, El Nino will be declared during late winter...

What's interesting is that we've yet to observe a legit cold pool develop in the western Pacific.



2015, 2009, and 2006 all had cold pools by this time, because normally around early winter is when El Nino's typically peak and the transition towards cold-neutral/La-Nina begins.

2015:


2009:


2006:



This past spring, I brought up the possibility of a double-dip El Nino or an extended warm-Enso phase going into the summer of 2019. I think there could be a legit chance at this happening as long as this El Nino continues to take its time.

[Ntxw]

Interesting they didn't pull the trigger, given the weeklies are already at moderate readings and well ahead of 2014 when they pulled the trigger late after it already happened by March. Regardless though consensus is a Nino is happening and already got going a little over a month ago at the surface.

[NotSparta]

Interesting they didn't pull the trigger, given the weeklies are already at moderate readings and well ahead of 2014 when they pulled the trigger late after it already happened by March. Regardless though consensus is a Nino is happening and already got going a little over a month ago at the surface.

It was mostly the atmosphere lagging which kept them from pulling the trigger

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1060867427817455616

[cycloneye]

Well,I am going to throw this question ahead but maybe is not going to have effect. Will the smoke from the CA wildfires affect the sst's to cool them affecting the PDO?

[StruThiO]

[NDG]

Today's update will show that the central Pacific has cooled down while Nino 1+2 warmed up nicely.

Nino 3.4 down to +0.8C

Nino 1+2 up to +0.8C

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf