ENSO Updates

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/11/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C

#10261 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 11, 2019 5:46 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/11/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.4C

#10262 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:38 pm

+1C/+4C anomalies surfacing over Nino3 between 120W-100W.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10263 Postby NotSparta » Tue Feb 12, 2019 3:16 pm

Given SSTA trends, the ATL may actually put up some modest resistance to +ENSO this yr, but unless +ENSO forcing is also modest it should not prevent El Niño, rather keep it a bit weaker than it would be w/ a cold ATL
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10264 Postby Shell Mound » Wed Feb 13, 2019 1:57 pm

NotSparta wrote:Given SSTA trends, the ATL may actually put up some modest resistance to +ENSO this yr, but unless +ENSO forcing is also modest it should not prevent El Niño, rather keep it a bit weaker than it would be w/ a cold ATL

We could see a strong El Niño coupled with a solid +AMO this year. This combination actually occurred a number of times in the late nineteenth century.

Therefore, we may end up with a hyperactive EPAC season and a near-average Atlantic season, rather than a well-below-average outcome in the Atlantic.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10265 Postby NotSparta » Wed Feb 13, 2019 2:57 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
NotSparta wrote:Given SSTA trends, the ATL may actually put up some modest resistance to +ENSO this yr, but unless +ENSO forcing is also modest it should not prevent El Niño, rather keep it a bit weaker than it would be w/ a cold ATL

We could see a strong El Niño coupled with a solid +AMO this year. This combination actually occurred a number of times in the late nineteenth century.

Therefore, we may end up with a hyperactive EPAC season and a near-average Atlantic season, rather than a well-below-average outcome in the Atlantic.



Yeah, but I don't want to deal w/ absolutes wrt ENSO yet, there's still a lot to figure out
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10266 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:21 pm

I think the biggest effects of a full fledged El Nino towards the Atlantic hurricane season is wind shear. The SST configuration over the Atlantic can be a favorable setup but anything that gets into the Caribbean will likely get shredded.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10267 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Feb 13, 2019 3:30 pm

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1095652976050479104




GFS not budging on the WWB strength and is also beginning to verify.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10268 Postby cycloneye » Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:19 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10269 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 13, 2019 4:29 pm

Kingarabian wrote:https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1095652976050479104

GFS not budging on the WWB strength and is also beginning to verify.

https://i.imgur.com/h65X16z.png


Euro low-balled this going in. Starting to verify in real time kudos to the GFS.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10270 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Feb 13, 2019 5:30 pm

SOI tanking now. Should continue to tank through February. The 1st Thursday of March I believe the CPC will issue an El Nino advisory. That's because the 30 day avg for January was -2.24 and for February it'll be around -10 if not lower. I think that's what the CPC has been waiting to see. Don't have time to run numbers for the SOI but I'm sure it'll close February in El Nino territory (lower than -8).

I think this graphic says it all.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10271 Postby NotSparta » Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:46 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I think the biggest effects of a full fledged El Nino towards the Atlantic hurricane season is wind shear. The SST configuration over the Atlantic can be a favorable setup but anything that gets into the Caribbean will likely get shredded.


Yes, however, the SST pattern in the Atlantic also effects ENSO, tending to weaken +ENSO events
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10272 Postby NotSparta » Wed Feb 13, 2019 7:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1095652976050479104

GFS not budging on the WWB strength and is also beginning to verify.

https://i.imgur.com/h65X16z.png


Yeah, it's been impressive. Slight deviation to the mean, but quite strong nonetheless
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10273 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 13, 2019 8:00 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:I think the biggest effects of a full fledged El Nino towards the Atlantic hurricane season is wind shear. The SST configuration over the Atlantic can be a favorable setup but anything that gets into the Caribbean will likely get shredded.


Yes, however, the SST pattern in the Atlantic also effects ENSO, tending to weaken +ENSO events


Atlantic does indeed influence, also does Indonesia. If anything the past 90 days or so Indonesia has been a deflector stunting the Nino growth late Fall and early Winter.
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Re: ENSO: Breaking News=CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10274 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 14, 2019 9:10 am

CPC issues El Niño Advisory

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 February 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: Weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

El Nino conditions formed during January 2019, based on the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The weekly Nino indices remained above average during the month, although decreasing in the Nino-3 and Nino-3.4 regions [Fig. 2]. However, the Nino-4 region remained elevated, with a value of +0.8°C in early February. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180?-100?W) increased in the last couple weeks [Fig. 3], in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave that contributed to above-average temperatures in the central Pacific [Fig. 4]. Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line, while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies became westerly across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Nino conditions.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Nino 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave and the forecast of westerly wind anomalies, most forecasters expect SST anomalies in the east-central Pacific to increase slightly in the upcoming month or so. Because forecasts through the spring tend to be more uncertain and/or less accurate, the predicted chance that El Nino will persist beyond the spring is 50% or less. In summary, weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO: Breaking News=CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10275 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 14, 2019 10:29 am

Here is the ENSO Blog where they discuss about how they came to the determination to issue El Niño Advisory.Excerpts below:

What’s new over the past month is that we’re seeing signs of El Niño-related changes in the atmosphere, with increased clouds and rain in the central Pacific indicating a weaker Walker circulation. One measurement of the strength of the Walker circulation, the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index, was -0.6 during January, indicating more rising air than average over the eastern Pacific, and less than average over the western Pacific. These changes are enough evidence that the atmosphere is responding to the warmer ocean, leading us to conclude we have El Niño conditions!


The future remains to be seen, but forecasters give weak El Niño conditions the edge through the spring. After that, chances of a continued El Niño drop below 50%. It’s tough to make a successful forecast for later in the year, due in large part to the “spring predictability barrier,” a notoriously tricky obstacle for computer models. Spring is a time of year when ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño and La Niña system) is often transitioning, making it especially difficult to predict what comes next.


Weak El Niño conditions means that El Niño isn’t dominating the global circulation, and there is a lower probability of El Niño-related global temperature and precipitation effects through the next few months. Other players, including the Madden-Julian Oscillation, may continue to affect weather patterns


https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... s-are-here
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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10276 Postby Ntxw » Thu Feb 14, 2019 12:21 pm

A bit late to the party. ONI had reached the threshold SON in the Fall late. They declared it a bit sooner than 2014-2015 but you could see the similarities. I don't think the CPC had a choice given ONI was going to get there despite mixed signals from the atmosphere.

I think Mike Ventrice has the better idea of noting ENSO as a spectrum with unique differences. Weak-Mod-Strong Nino/Nina by ONI is a good standard but there is a better way in a spectrum that captures the subtle differences and nuances of atmospheric coupling.
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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10277 Postby wxman57 » Thu Feb 14, 2019 2:31 pm

Official declaration requires SST anomalies in Nino 3.4 to be +0.5C or greater for a 3-month period. As January data are now in, the period of Nov-Jan qualified for El Nino, even though El Nino has already peaked.
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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10278 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 14, 2019 6:04 pm

Looks like the previous graphic I posted did not have all the members included. This graphic has more members showing El Nino conditions for the start of the hurricane season, with the mean centered near a moderate strength El Nino. We'll see if this happens as the ECMWF calls for an El Nino every year.

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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10279 Postby NotSparta » Thu Feb 14, 2019 8:56 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looks like the previous graphic I posted did not have all the members included. This graphic has more members showing El Nino conditions for the start of the hurricane season, with the mean centered near a moderate strength El Nino. We'll see if this happens as the ECMWF calls for an El Nino every year.

https://i.imgur.com/gNmRk0x.png


Accounting for bias, would look like weak-mod (imo) El Niño, which makes sense. Anywhere from La Niña to borderline strong El Niño makes sense to me so far. Definitely lots of uncertainty once again.
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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10280 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:43 am

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