Kingarabian wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Kingarabian wrote:So based on the 12z Euro, the SOI for the first 10 days of June will likely average out between -3 and -7, this is because of nearly identical high pressure numbers over Tahiti and Darwin. I'm saying between -3 and -7 due to identical pressures in the same region so it will come down to day by day observations. Days 10 through 20 of June will likely be a positive SOI due to the MJO entering the MC.
To update this post: Based on today's 12Z Euro, the next 4-5 days SHOULD be positive contributions to the SOI. After June 12, the model is showing a negative drop in the SOI once again because it builds back high pressure over Darwin. If it continues to show this solution (and verifies), there's a good possibility that a WWB sets up through the first week of July because through days 5-10 of the forecast, there's a growing amount of -VP200 anomalies building over the dateline. First 10 days of June will likely be near-5. But yeah I would've expected the SOI to be much more positive considering the strong pulse over the IO.
SOI continues to not cooperate and the Euro pressure forecasts continue to bust. I still believe it'll flip positive for a couple of days but we'll see.
Looking at the GFS 850mb wind Hovmoller, it's been about 8 days since the trade burst kicked off though there's yet to be a solid reflection on the buoys:
Probably why anomalies continue to hold firm.
It did take like 3 weeks for any WWB effects to show up last time around, so it's not surprising. In addition it's only been 8 days in tiny spots. In most areas, the EWB's been around for at most 5 days