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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10781 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jun 08, 2019 9:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:So based on the 12z Euro, the SOI for the first 10 days of June will likely average out between -3 and -7, this is because of nearly identical high pressure numbers over Tahiti and Darwin. I'm saying between -3 and -7 due to identical pressures in the same region so it will come down to day by day observations. Days 10 through 20 of June will likely be a positive SOI due to the MJO entering the MC.


To update this post: Based on today's 12Z Euro, the next 4-5 days SHOULD be positive contributions to the SOI. After June 12, the model is showing a negative drop in the SOI once again because it builds back high pressure over Darwin. If it continues to show this solution (and verifies), there's a good possibility that a WWB sets up through the first week of July because through days 5-10 of the forecast, there's a growing amount of -VP200 anomalies building over the dateline. First 10 days of June will likely be near-5. But yeah I would've expected the SOI to be much more positive considering the strong pulse over the IO.


SOI continues to not cooperate and the Euro pressure forecasts continue to bust. I still believe it'll flip positive for a couple of days but we'll see.

Looking at the GFS 850mb wind Hovmoller, it's been about 8 days since the trade burst kicked off though there's yet to be a solid reflection on the buoys:
https://i.imgur.com/jzizAC6.png
Probably why anomalies continue to hold firm.


It did take like 3 weeks for any WWB effects to show up last time around, so it's not surprising. In addition it's only been 8 days in tiny spots. In most areas, the EWB's been around for at most 5 days
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10782 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jun 08, 2019 10:20 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
To update this post: Based on today's 12Z Euro, the next 4-5 days SHOULD be positive contributions to the SOI. After June 12, the model is showing a negative drop in the SOI once again because it builds back high pressure over Darwin. If it continues to show this solution (and verifies), there's a good possibility that a WWB sets up through the first week of July because through days 5-10 of the forecast, there's a growing amount of -VP200 anomalies building over the dateline. First 10 days of June will likely be near-5. But yeah I would've expected the SOI to be much more positive considering the strong pulse over the IO.


SOI continues to not cooperate and the Euro pressure forecasts continue to bust. I still believe it'll flip positive for a couple of days but we'll see.

Looking at the GFS 850mb wind Hovmoller, it's been about 8 days since the trade burst kicked off though there's yet to be a solid reflection on the buoys:
https://i.imgur.com/jzizAC6.png
Probably why anomalies continue to hold firm.


It did take like 3 weeks for any WWB effects to show up last time around, so it's not surprising. In addition it's only been 8 days in tiny spots. In most areas, the EWB's been around for at most 5 days

Effects yes, I'm talking about observed strong trades. Last WWB and EWB 5 days in and strong anomalies were present.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10783 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 09, 2019 5:07 pm

Looking at today's RMM plots:
Strong possibility that the length and strength of this trade burst in the long range is likely overdone by the GFS as it's showing too much amplification over the MC once again.

While not to the full extent, the GFS and Euro are trending towards the CFS's solution which is to keep the MJO alive with continued progression towards the WPAC. This continues the pattern we've been in since the spring. Looks likely a WWB will be on the way to close out the month and into July. Considering that the upwelling Kelvin wave continues to sit deep in the WPAC without much progression due to relaxed trades over the dateline, there is good reason to believe that the next WWB will mean a high chance El Nino lasts through the rest of the year.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to +1.0C

#10784 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jun 09, 2019 6:19 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
SOI continues to not cooperate and the Euro pressure forecasts continue to bust. I still believe it'll flip positive for a couple of days but we'll see.

Looking at the GFS 850mb wind Hovmoller, it's been about 8 days since the trade burst kicked off though there's yet to be a solid reflection on the buoys:
https://i.imgur.com/jzizAC6.png
Probably why anomalies continue to hold firm.


It did take like 3 weeks for any WWB effects to show up last time around, so it's not surprising. In addition it's only been 8 days in tiny spots. In most areas, the EWB's been around for at most 5 days

Effects yes, I'm talking about observed strong trades. Last WWB and EWB 5 days in and strong anomalies were present.


The EWB would have done more damage had the El Nino died out in the Spring, but it didn't. This EWB likely stalled it more than anything until the next WWB. That's why there is seasonal variability, timing with it.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10785 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looking at today's RMM plots:
Strong possibility that the length and strength of this trade burst in the long range is likely overdone by the GFS as it's showing too much amplification over the MC once again.

While not to the full extent, the GFS and Euro are trending towards the CFS's solution which is to keep the MJO alive with continued progression towards the WPAC. This continues the pattern we've been in since the spring. Looks likely a WWB will be on the way to close out the month and into July. Considering that the upwelling Kelvin wave continues to sit deep in the WPAC without much progression due to relaxed trades over the dateline, there is good reason to believe that the next WWB will mean a high chance El Nino lasts through the rest of the year.


Relaxed trades over the dateline? What's showing that?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10786 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:22 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Looking at today's RMM plots:
Strong possibility that the length and strength of this trade burst in the long range is likely overdone by the GFS as it's showing too much amplification over the MC once again.

While not to the full extent, the GFS and Euro are trending towards the CFS's solution which is to keep the MJO alive with continued progression towards the WPAC. This continues the pattern we've been in since the spring. Looks likely a WWB will be on the way to close out the month and into July. Considering that the upwelling Kelvin wave continues to sit deep in the WPAC without much progression due to relaxed trades over the dateline, there is good reason to believe that the next WWB will mean a high chance El Nino lasts through the rest of the year.


Relaxed trades over the dateline? What's showing that?

Buoys. Hence why the downwelling Kelvin wave continues to garner more amplitude and there's some +3C anomalies popping up.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10787 Postby CyclonicFury » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Looking at today's RMM plots:
Strong possibility that the length and strength of this trade burst in the long range is likely overdone by the GFS as it's showing too much amplification over the MC once again.

While not to the full extent, the GFS and Euro are trending towards the CFS's solution which is to keep the MJO alive with continued progression towards the WPAC. This continues the pattern we've been in since the spring. Looks likely a WWB will be on the way to close out the month and into July. Considering that the upwelling Kelvin wave continues to sit deep in the WPAC without much progression due to relaxed trades over the dateline, there is good reason to believe that the next WWB will mean a high chance El Nino lasts through the rest of the year.


Relaxed trades over the dateline? What's showing that?

Buoys. Hence why the downwelling Kelvin wave continues to garner more amplitude and there's some +3C anomalies popping up.

The buoys don't appear to show "relaxed" trades, it's more about average-slightly above average trades. Ventrice's Hovmoller shows a sizable trade burst ongoing.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10788 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 09, 2019 7:34 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Relaxed trades over the dateline? What's showing that?

Buoys. Hence why the downwelling Kelvin wave continues to garner more amplitude and there's some +3C anomalies popping up.

The buoys don't appear to show "relaxed" trades, it's more about average-slightly above average trades. Ventrice's Hovmoller shows a sizable trade burst ongoing.

Those Hovmollers are based on the GFS's analysis. On the buoys between 180 and 145 there are very little hints of 5-6Ms anomalous trades that the GFS Hovmoller has been showing since June 1.
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Here's the 2017 May EWB comparison that killed any chance of El Nino:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10789 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 10, 2019 6:43 am

Going to be 0.9C this week.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10790 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:06 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10791 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 10, 2019 8:47 am

Ntxw wrote:Going to be 0.9C this week.


Text.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10792 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:28 am


As usual with Ventrices tweets:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1138069577777274880




And also we can see pretty relaxed trades or early signs of a WWB around June 20. Interestingly this is what the CFS has been showing for weeks in regards to that trade surge over the EPAC. Starting today differences in MJO forecasts will begin so we'll see which model is right.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.9C / Niño 1+2 down to -0.4C

#10793 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jun 10, 2019 10:40 am

Daily SOI up to +8.15. First positive daily value I've seen in a while.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.9C / Niño 1+2 down to -0.4C

#10794 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:51 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Daily SOI up to +8.15. First positive daily value I've seen in a while.

Should be positive for the next few days if the observed pressures match the Euro forecast.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.9C / Niño 1+2 down to -0.4C

#10795 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jun 10, 2019 3:23 pm

Can't underestimate the power of Equatorial Rossby Waves.
You can see how an ERW in association with the conducive MJO phase looks to be triggering a strong WWB over the WPAC/DL/CPAC and another ERW in association with the suppressed MJO phase is triggering a strong trade burst (strongest we've seen in a while) over the EPAC.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.9C / Niño 1+2 down to -0.4C

#10796 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Can't underestimate the power of Equatorial Rossby Waves.
You can see how an ERW in association with the conducive MJO phase looks to be triggering a strong WWB over the WPAC/DL/CPAC and another ERW in association with the suppressed MJO phase is triggering a strong trade burst (strongest we've seen in a while) over the EPAC.

-snip-


Possibly a Modoki on the way?
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 at +0.9C / Niño 1+2 down to -0.4C

#10797 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:45 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Can't underestimate the power of Equatorial Rossby Waves.
You can see how an ERW in association with the conducive MJO phase looks to be triggering a strong WWB over the WPAC/DL/CPAC and another ERW in association with the suppressed MJO phase is triggering a strong trade burst (strongest we've seen in a while) over the EPAC.

-snip-


Possibly a Modoki on the way?


That was my thinking in late May:

Kingarabian wrote:GFS now takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Has a sizeable trade surge that extends to the dateline but keeps trades weak and relaxed over the EPAC for the forecast period:
[url]https://i.imgur.com/FniTWBW.png[url]

CFS also takes the MJO into phase 2, similar to the Euro. Doesn't show much of an easterly component in its forecasts, keeps trades or westerlies blowing over the dateline, but has a strong trade burst over the EPAC:
[url]https://i.imgur.com/UplNhlo.png[url]

So if the GFS solution materializes, a weak traditional El Nino will likely persist due to the trades blowing over an area that has sufficient warmth while weaker trades don't encourage much cooling over the EPAC.
If the CFS solution materializes the weak traditional El Nino signature over the Pacific ocean will surely disappear and a Modoki-esque signature will take over.


Looks like a blend of the above two solutions is what will happen based on models and present observations.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10798 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:52 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10799 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:04 pm

In regards to Modoki prospects for 2019, here's 2002 and 2004's Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 averaged anomalies from May-September:

2002 May-September Nino 1+2 average: -0.2C
2002 May-September Nino 3 average: +0.4C

2004 May-September Nino 1+2 average: -0.9C
2004 May-September Nino 3 average: -0.1C

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... oi.indices

Based on these numbers we're currently following 2002 very closely. If the predicted trade surge strength verifies and we don't see a WWB similar to May's, then I think we'll see Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 tank and see something similar to 2004.
2004's Modoki El Nino is the barometer. Every other west based El Nino acted like a classic El Nino for the most part.
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Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10800 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:17 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 June 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance).

During May, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly ENSO indices indicate the largest positive SST anomalies were within the central Pacific (+1.1°C in Niño-4 and +0.9°C in Niño-3.4) with smaller departures in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) were nearly average at the start of May, but positive anomalies increased toward the end of the month in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave [Fig. 3]. Thus, anomalies remained positive at depth in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies evident in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weak, enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and east-central Pacific. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with El Niño.

The combined averages in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20, but individual models span ENSO-neutral to El Niño outcomes (generally +0.0°C to +1.0°C; [Fig. 6]). The forecast consensus reflects this uncertainty, with slightly lower chances for El Niño compared to the previous month. Ongoing subseasonal variability within the tropical Pacific contributes to an overall murky picture, but the current downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave should fuel the persistence of El Niño at least in the short-term. In summary, El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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