ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
StruThiO
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 486
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ENSO Updates

#10801 Postby StruThiO » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:52 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11005
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10802 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jun 12, 2019 5:04 pm

In regards to Modoki prospects for 2019, here's 2002 and 2004's Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 averaged anomalies from May-September:

2002 May-September Nino 1+2 average: -0.2C
2002 May-September Nino 3 average: +0.4C

2004 May-September Nino 1+2 average: -0.9C
2004 May-September Nino 3 average: -0.1C

Source: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indi ... oi.indices

Based on these numbers we're currently following 2002 very closely. If the predicted trade surge strength verifies and we don't see a WWB similar to May's, then I think we'll see Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 tank and see something similar to 2004.
2004's Modoki El Nino is the barometer. Every other west based El Nino acted like a classic El Nino for the most part.
4 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117029
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10803 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:17 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
13 June 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance).

During May, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly ENSO indices indicate the largest positive SST anomalies were within the central Pacific (+1.1°C in Niño-4 and +0.9°C in Niño-3.4) with smaller departures in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) were nearly average at the start of May, but positive anomalies increased toward the end of the month in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave [Fig. 3]. Thus, anomalies remained positive at depth in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, with negative anomalies evident in the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weak, enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western and east-central Pacific. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with El Niño.

The combined averages in the IRI/CPC plume predict El Niño to continue into Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20, but individual models span ENSO-neutral to El Niño outcomes (generally +0.0°C to +1.0°C; [Fig. 6]). The forecast consensus reflects this uncertainty, with slightly lower chances for El Niño compared to the previous month. Ongoing subseasonal variability within the tropical Pacific contributes to an overall murky picture, but the current downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave should fuel the persistence of El Niño at least in the short-term. In summary, El Niño is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2019 (66% chance), with lower odds of continuing through the fall and winter (50-55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


Image

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117029
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10804 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 13, 2019 3:10 pm

As always they discuss further about the update in the blog. :darrow:

ENSO BLOG
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11005
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10805 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:06 pm

Buoys showing-2C anomalies in that cold pool deep in the WPAC. Depending on how strong this El Nino can peak by the end of the year (stronger El Nino peaks usually followed by higher La Nina chances), I believe there will be a great chance to see a respectable La Nina in 2020.

12z Euro run today shows daily SOI contributions fluctuating between weakly negative/positive for the next couple of days, before tanking the SOI considerably from June 17/18.
4 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11005
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10806 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 14, 2019 5:13 pm

GFS taking its "over done" label to new extremes:
Image
2 likes   

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4540
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10807 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Jun 14, 2019 6:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS taking its "over done" label to new extremes:


That would be a WWB right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11005
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10808 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:24 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS taking its "over done" label to new extremes:


That would be a WWB right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This shows anomalously very strong -VP200 anomalies (rising air) over the dateline. Of course if this were to be true we would see a very strong WWB. But it looks to very overdone.
0 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1148
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10809 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:GFS taking its "over done" label to new extremes:


That would be a WWB right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This shows anomalously very strong -VP200 anomalies (rising air) over the dateline. Of course if this were to be true we would see a very strong WWB. But it looks to very overdone.


I understand why it would be there, there must be wicked llvl convergence where the EWB & WWB meet
0 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11005
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO: CPC June update: 66% chance of El Niño thru Summer / 50-55% thru Fall and Winter

#10810 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jun 14, 2019 9:58 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
WeatherEmperor wrote:
That would be a WWB right?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This shows anomalously very strong -VP200 anomalies (rising air) over the dateline. Of course if this were to be true we would see a very strong WWB. But it looks to very overdone.


I understand why it would be there, there must be wicked llvl convergence where the EWB & WWB meet

True but not to this extent @ 200mb. Looks related to the +AMM that it shows taking place soon.
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117029
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10811 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 15, 2019 11:21 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11005
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10812 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 16, 2019 2:44 pm

Was about to make a post that the thermocline is now rising and is responding to this EWB but Paul Roundy sums it up in this tweet:
 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1140008180723961856


1 likes   

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1148
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#10813 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:12 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Was about to make a post that the thermocline is now rising and is responding to this EWB but Paul Roundy sums it up in this tweet:
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1140008180723961856


Yeah the GFS backed way off of the WWB. Mostly had it because of twin TCs which it doesn't show anymore. However, looks like that region will have relaxed trades. East of the dateline, trades remain strong, reinforcing Modoki signature
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117029
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10814 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:22 pm

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11005
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#10815 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 16, 2019 11:30 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Was about to make a post that the thermocline is now rising and is responding to this EWB but Paul Roundy sums it up in this tweet:
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1140008180723961856


Yeah the GFS backed way off of the WWB. Mostly had it because of twin TCs which it doesn't show anymore. However, looks like that region will have relaxed trades. East of the dateline, trades remain strong, reinforcing Modoki signature

Massive spread between the models in regards to the MJO so its tough to know if there will be a WWB or not. The Euro and GFS forecast erratic movement of the MJO showing it retrograding while the CFS shows progression into phase 6 and 7. Just have to wait and see.
1 likes   

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17223
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO Updates

#10816 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:38 am

0.7C this week
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
NotSparta
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1148
Age: 17
Joined: Fri Aug 18, 2017 8:24 am
Location: Naples, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#10817 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jun 17, 2019 6:42 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Was about to make a post that the thermocline is now rising and is responding to this EWB but Paul Roundy sums it up in this tweet:
https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1140008180723961856


Yeah the GFS backed way off of the WWB. Mostly had it because of twin TCs which it doesn't show anymore. However, looks like that region will have relaxed trades. East of the dateline, trades remain strong, reinforcing Modoki signature

Massive spread between the models in regards to the MJO so its tough to know if there will be a WWB or not. The Euro and GFS forecast erratic movement of the MJO showing it retrograding while the CFS shows progression into phase 6 and 7. Just have to wait and see.


I'll lean on GFS/ECMWF. It's been difficult to trust the CFS, and it doesn't help it's got known biases that'll move things that way
1 likes   
This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for official tropical analysis and advisories.

My website, tropical wx graphics and blogs: http://cyclonicwx.com

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117029
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#10818 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:48 am

1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117029
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.7C

#10819 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 17, 2019 8:51 am

The CPC Weekly update text that has Niño 3.4 going down to +0.7C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 17223
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to +0.7C

#10820 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jun 17, 2019 9:42 am

The Modoki structure, at the moment, is really in place. There is disconnect between the eastern Pacific equatorial winds and the high latitude wavetrain structure. Stronger Aleutian low (cool waters east of Japan) summer time persistent -NAO.

Despite the strong passage over the IO, the SOI was unimpressed.
4 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K



Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: cajungal, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricaneman, HurricaneMaster_PR, pepecool20, StormPyrate, stormzilla and 27 guests