Ntxw wrote:NotSparta wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Simply looking at the CHI200 on the GFS and Euro, the models still show sinking motion left over the EPAC. But in regards to the SOI, the SOI technically lags a bit and the positive daily's should've been much more and prolonged with the MJO now over the MC.
Yeah SOI is really noisy so it might not reflect what you think it will
While it is true the SOI is noisy, especially the daily, it can give you some hints if taken in context over longer periods and trends. It's not useless per say. If the negatives continue to weigh heavily against positives (when forecast says otherwise) there is a disconnect which means one should re-evaluate if the totality of the atmosphere is cooperating with the surface winds and/or SSTA. About 1-2 months ago many were ready to write off the Nino, but the long term SOI told us to hold up and hold steady.
I find the SOI to be more noisy during late winter through April as it becomes very prone to noise caused by seasonal changes and TC's or low pressure systems. It becomes pretty solid through the month of May, as it starts to correctly reflect current conditions, while SOI forecasts also give an idea on what is likely to happen in regards to ENSO. I remember in 2017, Larry correctly called an El Nino cancel before anything happened just by utilizing SOI numbers. At this time of the year its very important to pay attention to the SOI especially when things are seesawing back and forth.