ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10981 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:38 am

NDG wrote:The Euro is finally getting the picture.

https://i.imgur.com/gvr9taQ.png


Maybe the mean is Weak El Nino or Warm Neutral for ASO?

Looking at the buoys only (I know PENTAD is probably cooler and my not reflect this), the present regime of weak trades has slowed the present upwelling Kelvin wave's propagation to the east and we also do see warmer anomalies starting to fill back in.
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We'll see how long this continues.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10982 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:33 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:The Euro is finally getting the picture.

https://i.imgur.com/gvr9taQ.png


Maybe the mean is Weak El Nino or Warm Neutral for ASO?

Looking at the buoys only (I know PENTAD is probably cooler and my not reflect this), the present regime of weak trades has slowed the present upwelling Kelvin wave's propagation to the east and we also do see warmer anomalies starting to fill back in.
https://i.imgur.com/ZHDqHUE.gif

We'll see how long this continues.


It looks to me more like warm neutral for ASO, weak El Nino is out of the of the question with the Euro been warm biased as it is.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10983 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:20 am

CPC July Update calls for Neutral conditions in August or September

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
11 July 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory


Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.

During June, El Niño was reflected in the continued presence of above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. However, SST anomalies across most of the eastern Pacific decreased during the month. The latest weekly ENSO indices were +0.9°C in Niño-4 and +0.6°C in Niño-3.4, with smaller departures in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions [Fig. 2]. Upper-ocean subsurface temperatures (averaged across 180°-100°W) were above average at the beginning of June, but returned to near average by end of the month [Fig. 3], as anomalously cool waters expanded at depth [Fig. 4]. Weakly suppressed tropical convection continued over Indonesia, while weakly enhanced convection persisted near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies were near average over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the far eastern Pacific. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Indices were slightly negative. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with a weakening El Niño.

The latest plume of North American Multi-model Ensemble forecasts of the Niño-3.4 index [Fig. 6] shows a rapid transition toward ENSO-neutral by the late Northern Hemisphere summer, remaining neutral through fall and winter. Due to this model guidance and recent observations, the forecast consensus also favors a transition to ENSO-neutral during the next few months. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is expected in the next month or two, with ENSO-neutral most likely to continue through Northern Hemisphere fall and winter (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml


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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: El Niño ends in August or September

#10984 Postby StruThiO » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:26 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: El Niño ends in August or September

#10985 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:33 pm

StruThiO wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1149419596526440448[/rl]


Satellite derived estimates have been quite cool the past 2 weeks. Let's see if they're reflected on next week Monday's update.
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: El Niño ends in August or September

#10986 Postby StruThiO » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:47 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: El Niño ends in August or September

#10987 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:51 pm

We were literally coming off a super El Nino :uarrow:
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: El Niño ends in August or September

#10988 Postby Ntxw » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:53 pm

2016 also had a much warmer MC. At that time +SOI dominated the summer, signaling a stronger atmospheric response of the walker circulation shifting to the west.
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: El Niño ends in August or September

#10989 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 13, 2019 4:46 pm

12z Euro has a solid string of positive SOI readings from July19-23. Shows Darwin averaging near 1013.5 and Tahiti near 1015 for that period of time.
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: El Niño ends in August or September

#10990 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:08 pm

Forgot to post the ENSO Blog from CPC so here it is.As always a great discussion.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ll-go-walk
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Re: ENSO: CPC July update: El Niño ends in August or September

#10991 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jul 14, 2019 6:19 pm

Kingarabian wrote:12z Euro has a solid string of positive SOI readings from July19-23. Shows Darwin averaging near 1013.5 and Tahiti near 1015 for that period of time.

Well not anymore. Model has been flipflopping. Now shows Tahiti near 1014-1014.5mb from July 19-23. So we're likely going to see a good stretch of days where the SOI daily values are either weakly negative/positive.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10992 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 15, 2019 6:19 am

This week's update will show Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 up slightly to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.1C, Nino 4 remains unchanged at +0.9C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10993 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:20 am

NDG wrote:This week's update will show Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 up slightly to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.1C, Nino 4 remains unchanged at +0.9C

Wildcard is the MJO now. GFS and CFS show enough amplitude over the IO which would trigger a large and strong trade burst and end the El Nino quickly. Euro guidance doesn't show much amplitude over the IO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10994 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:28 am

I wonder if we have seen the last of +0.5°C values for Niño 3.4 for this event.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10995 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:33 am

Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:This week's update will show Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 up slightly to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.1C, Nino 4 remains unchanged at +0.9C

Wildcard is the MJO now. GFS and CFS show enough amplitude over the IO which would trigger a large and strong trade burst and end the El Nino quickly. Euro guidance doesn't show much amplitude over the IO.


IO forcing isn't enough. One thing to note, we are losing the forcing of a traditional Nino (to the east) but there isn't La Nina forcing either, in fact highly against it. The Maritime Continent (Nina favorite) is strongly prohibited by the extensive cold anomalies. Trade burst there going on will continue that trend.

If not for what is happening in the MC, this would easily transition to a Nina like 2016 or 2017. However not the case here.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10996 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 15, 2019 10:39 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#10997 Postby NotSparta » Mon Jul 15, 2019 1:16 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:This week's update will show Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 up slightly to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.1C, Nino 4 remains unchanged at +0.9C

Wildcard is the MJO now. GFS and CFS show enough amplitude over the IO which would trigger a large and strong trade burst and end the El Nino quickly. Euro guidance doesn't show much amplitude over the IO.


IO forcing isn't enough. One thing to note, we are losing the forcing of a traditional Nino (to the east) but there isn't La Nina forcing either, in fact highly against it. The Maritime Continent (Nina favorite) is strongly prohibited by the extensive cold anomalies. Trade burst there going on will continue that trend.

If not for what is happening in the MC, this would easily transition to a Nina like 2016 or 2017. However not the case here.


Yeah this Niño was too weak to start a Niña quickly, but had enough negative feedback to push into warm neutral. Definitely would be surprised to see even an attempt at La Niña as there are still too many +ENSO leaning indicators even into mid July
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10998 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:34 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:I wonder if we have seen the last of +0.5°C values for Niño 3.4 for this event.

Probably not until the upwelling Kelvin wave is allowed to erupt. Because north of those cool anomalies, there still remains +0.5C/+1.0c anomalies. Sso even if mixing with cooler anomalies occurs the net result would be near +0.5C.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 7/15/19: Niño 3.4 down to -0.4C

#10999 Postby StruThiO » Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:51 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11000 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 15, 2019 2:55 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
NDG wrote:This week's update will show Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C, Nino 1+2 up slightly to -0.2C, Nino 3 down to +0.1C, Nino 4 remains unchanged at +0.9C

Wildcard is the MJO now. GFS and CFS show enough amplitude over the IO which would trigger a large and strong trade burst and end the El Nino quickly. Euro guidance doesn't show much amplitude over the IO.


IO forcing isn't enough. One thing to note, we are losing the forcing of a traditional Nino (to the east) but there isn't La Nina forcing either, in fact highly against it. The Maritime Continent (Nina favorite) is strongly prohibited by the extensive cold anomalies. Trade burst there going on will continue that trend.

If not for what is happening in the MC, this would easily transition to a Nina like 2016 or 2017. However not the case here.

Well without the MC's cooperation we'll remain stuck between warm neutral/weak El Nino. With +ENSO forcing stronger in the Fall, I think there is a possibility for an El Nino rebound. However, a large scale trade burst if it happens soon while the upwelling Kelvin wave is coherent, would put a huge dent in allowing cooler anomalies to surface.
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