ENSO Updates

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Visioen
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 115
Joined: Sat Sep 02, 2017 2:08 pm
Location: Belgium, Europe

Re: ENSO Updates

#11621 Postby Visioen » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:07 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Visioen wrote:
Kingarabian wrote: Its the difference of the pressure readings over Darwin Australia and Tahiti.
Not much effects on the Atlantic hurricane season. Maybe indirect effects? It has more effects on CONUS winter. A 90 day SOI +/- 8 means present El Nino or La Nina conditions. A 30 day SOI +/- 8 usually means a present active or in active intra-seasonal signal over the WPAC and Dateline (MJO/CCKW). However the 30 day SOI can be noisy and show illusions of an inactive or active phase.

And this means the current value of -9.1 would be more indicative of El Nino then La Nina, which could raises some questions about the current ENSO forecast.
As for the Atlantic hurricane season, it is known that El Nino suppresses tc development.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ane-season

The present -9.1 value is the 30 day calculation. The 90 day SOI is the El Nino or La Nina indicator to monitor. Right now it's at a -3.34, or in neutral territory. It's been obvious that the atmosphere is lagging behind the ocean in terms of La Nina. But IMO it'll eventually get there. In regards to Atlantic hurricane development, the hardest hitting Atlantic hurricane seasons have generally been when ENSO was in a state of weak La Nina or cool neutral by ASO. Which is what's currently happening.

Thanks for the correction and clarification.
1 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11686
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#11622 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 22, 2020 6:28 am

All ENSO Regions warmed up last week. This will be today's update:

Nino 1+2 up to -0.5C
Nino 3 up to -0.7C
Nino 3.4 up to -0.4C
Nino 4 up to +0.2C
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates: CPC Weekly Update= Niño 3.4 up to -0.4C

#11623 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 22, 2020 10:33 am

Image

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates: BoM Update issues La Niña Watch

#11624 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 23, 2020 5:26 am

2 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#11625 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 25, 2020 8:58 am

Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
aspen
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 928
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm

Re: ENSO Updates

#11626 Postby aspen » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:00 am

cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.
0 likes   
I am a meteorology enthusiast, not a professional meteorologist; take what I say lightly and look to your local weather agency (NHC, CPHC, JTWC, etc) or the pros for better information.

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#11627 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:09 am

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.


I dont know a lot about the Kelvin Waves, MJO, IOD etc so I will punt to those who know more that do good discussions in this thread.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4623
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#11628 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:19 am

aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.


I was about to pose the same question. Perhaps Kingarabian can chime in. He is one of the best we have at Storm2K about Enso details


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1631
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Port Saint Lucie, FL
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11629 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:40 am

Looks to me that the cooler portion of this ENSO event is yet to happen. Looks like late July into October?

 http://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1274693635875975170


0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11450
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11630 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:37 pm

toad strangler wrote:Looks to me that the cooler portion of this ENSO event is yet to happen. Looks like late July into October?

http://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1274693635875975170?s=20

La Nina's usually peak around early winter while El Nino's usually peak just before the start of spring.
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11913
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: ENSO Updates

#11631 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:13 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.


I was about to pose the same question. Perhaps Kingarabian can chime in. He is one of the best we have at Storm2K about Enso details


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Passage of the MJO/CCKW over the region?
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11450
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11632 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jun 25, 2020 5:39 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
aspen wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Niño 3.4 keeps warming and if it goes up a little bit more it will be at warm neutral.

https://i.imgur.com/j9G2IWf.png

Why is Niño 3.4 warming so much? The equatorial Pacific is still cooler than average, and I haven’t heard of the same mechanisms that caused the previous warming spike.


I was about to pose the same question. Perhaps Kingarabian can chime in. He is one of the best we have at Storm2K about Enso details


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It's due to a prolonged period of generally relaxed trades and the upcoming trade burst seems to be centered well west of the dateline:
Image

Nino 3.4 is the barometer that the CPC/BOM use to gauge where ENSO is leaning towards El Nino or La Nina or Neutral. During moderate or strong El Nino or La Nina events, Nino 3.4 is pretty stable and will reflect current conditions. When it's cool-neutral or warm-neutral, Nino 3.4 can become noisy and intraseasonal variability effects it more (which is what's happening as Yellow Evan posted).

But the main regions that have direct impact towards the Atlantic hurricane season are Nino 3 and Nino 1+2. Both regions remain quite negative and that's all that matters.
12 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO Updates

#11633 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jun 28, 2020 2:16 pm

Kingarabian ,the trade winds are still relaxed as Niño 3.4 keeps warming almost at 0.0C.
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

WeatherEmperor
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4623
Age: 36
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
Location: South Florida

Re: ENSO Updates

#11634 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sun Jun 28, 2020 3:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian ,the trade winds are still relaxed as Niño 3.4 keeps warming almost at 0.0C.


Can you provide an update on Nino 3 and Nino 1+2?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11450
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ENSO Updates

#11635 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Jun 28, 2020 4:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian ,the trade winds are still relaxed as Niño 3.4 keeps warming almost at 0.0C.

The recent 850mb wind forecasts show a favorable setup that in theory should keep Nino 3.4 cool. Nino 3 and Nino 1+2 may warm up a bit this week due to the lingering MJO/CCKW enhancing westerly anomalies. But the overall ENSO setup is still similar to 2005 and 2017. ENSO is a longterm oscillation so we shouldn't worry about weekly noise. ENSO's status for ASO will be at least cool neutral through ASO. There's enough cool subsurface water to support it.
8 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11686
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ENSO Updates

#11636 Postby NDG » Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:22 am

Last week warming continued across central Nino Regions, this is today's update:

Nino 1+2 down to -0.8C
Nino 3 up to -0.4C
Nino 3.4 up to +0.1C
Nino 4 up to +0.5C
1 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 118982
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 up to warm neutral at +0.1C

#11637 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:25 am

New week and keeps warming. Last week's CPC had it at -0.4C and today is at +0.1C and that is a rapid rise in only one week. Now what?

Image

Image
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, aspen, BYG Jacob, CyclonicFury, Google Adsense [Bot], hurricanes1234, jconsor, JetFuel_SE, lilbump3000, Siker, TheProfessor, TheStormExpert and 45 guests