ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11741 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Dec 25, 2020 3:22 pm

VP200 and 850mb wind along with the subsurface charts show that this La Nina continues to have a very strong grip on the atmosphere and the ocean.
Image

The Euro and GFS show very weak trades if not westerly winds in the EPAC for a little while. Likely won't do much to change anything but Nino regions 3 and 1+2 should start warming up soon.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11742 Postby cycloneye » Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:20 pm

Indeed, La Niña does not look to go away anytime soon.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11743 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Jan 03, 2021 11:18 am

cycloneye wrote:Indeed, La Niña does not look to go away anytime soon.

https://i.imgur.com/Tadaky1.png



Yeah, at this point should this continue there's an extremely low chance 2021 will be an El Nino year. I mean, we still have yet to reach the spring predictability barrier but there's a reason why the year right after the year a moderate La Nina forms has historically only been at most neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11744 Postby TROPICALCYCLONEALERT » Mon Jan 04, 2021 7:46 am

I'd think that this -ENSO event has just about peaked despite the EWB's. The enhanced trades should act to sustain the cold anomalies, but some of the coldest anomalies have already disappeared. Lack of a co-operative NPAC isn't doing it many favors either. Subsurface also seems to show the hallmarks of a peaking ENSO event with what's effectively a dipole forming between warm and cold anomalies. I'd be more comfortable saying a slow rise into neutral territories over the coming months, though I could be wrong + it's pretty early.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11745 Postby weeniepatrol » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:19 am

All regions cooled this week

Nino 1+2: -1.3C
Nino 3: -0.9C
Nino 3.4: -1.2C
Nino 4: -1.1C

This is the coolest weekly for nino 4 since February 2012.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11746 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 04, 2021 8:10 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11747 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jan 05, 2021 2:38 am


I think it's the likely outcome of a double dip La Nina, but not before ENSO shifts back to neutral territory. CFS is trying again for a month long relaxation of trades/WWB event from mid Feb -> mid March. This in theory will shift things back to neutral if it materializes. The CFS has been wrong quite a bit so far in its WWB projections. The Euro continues to have weak westerly anomalies in the EPAC heading into February and poops the everlasting easterly trade wind plume west of the dateline. This will help the Nino 3.4, Nino 3, and Nino 1+2 to warm back up.

But ovverall there's still a lot of things stacked against a warm ENSO event and it's mainly timing. IF this downwelling Kelvin wave manages to get into the CPAC and EPAC it will do so by April. Despite that, the base state will remain La Nina-ish because it takes time for a shift to happen. It will likely be very hard to get another full blown downwelling Kelvin wave in April and May. By June and July the trade winds will dominate again and Nino 3.4 should dip back and stay in negative territory. Don't be surprised to see positive Nino 3.4 anomalies and then a sudden shift back down to negative. This is very similar to what happened in 2012 and 2017.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11748 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jan 05, 2021 12:20 pm

La Niña does not going to go away anytime soon with this.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1346504860280246272


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11749 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:56 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11750 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jan 09, 2021 2:01 pm

ONI for OND came in at -1.3°C. This will be a solid moderate La Niña event in the record books - despite not being preceded by a significant El Niño.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11751 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:03 pm

Anyone know when ONI will be updated? I remember in a blog from the CPC back in Spring 2020 that they said they are confident that the ONI update will nerf the warm tri-monthlies and will not support an El Nino event for 2020. Curious to see if this will happen or not.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11752 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jan 09, 2021 3:56 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Anyone know when ONI will be updated? I remember in a blog from the CPC back in Spring 2020 that they said they are confident that the ONI update will nerf the warm tri-monthlies and will not support an El Nino event for 2020. Curious to see if this will happen or not.


Here is the OND update at -1.3C.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11753 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jan 09, 2021 5:05 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Anyone know when ONI will be updated? I remember in a blog from the CPC back in Spring 2020 that they said they are confident that the ONI update will nerf the warm tri-monthlies and will not support an El Nino event for 2020. Curious to see if this will happen or not.


Here is the OND update at -1.3C.

https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc ... ONI_v5.php

Yes sir but I'm wondering about the data set used for ONI.

Back in May 2020 this was in the CPC Blog:

Finally, there’s another issue that is likely coming into play here. The tropical Pacific is experiencing climate change along with the rest of the world, and it’s affecting the “average.” What counts as “average” is getting warmer over time. NOAA uses a 30-year period to define average, and right now that is 1986–2015 for the Oceanic Niño Index. In January of 2021, we’ll update the average period to 1991–2020. Lots more detail here and here.

This update will result in changes to the ONI values dating back to 2006. Some seasons that were warm enough to qualify as El Niño when compared to the older (cooler) average won’t be when compared to the more recent (warmer) average. Since winter 2019–2020 was right on the edge, it’s likely that at least one season will drop to 0.4°C, and we’ll no longer have five consecutive seasons at or above the El Niño threshold.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... -road-trip

To me it seemed like they're banking on a season not meeting the threshold due to the upcoming change, and that'll back up their call of no El Nino for the 2019-2020 winter.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11754 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:43 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11755 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Jan 13, 2021 6:33 pm

GFS and Euro show a moderate and expansive EPAC WWB that will last for 2 weeks.

Image

In regards to ENSO what matters most is the wind anomalies near the dateline @ 180. Even in the 850mb wind charts It's clear and obvious that La Nina is in full control. But this EPAC WWB will help to slow down upwelling over the Nino 3+4, Nino 3, and Nino 1+2 regions. It looks substantial enough to bring SST anomalies in those regions back to neutral because it will also have help from a downwelling Kelvin wave. In the next few months current downwelling Kelvin wave should be in the CPAC and EPAC. Some of those anomalies will reach the surface and it's possible to see positive anomalies by mid/end of Spring.

After that time it's very unlikely we'll see any more downwelling Kelvin waves because the base state is clearly La Nina. As we enter the summer, the July trades should come back and help the La Nina recover. For reference, this is what happened in 2012 and 2017.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11756 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 14, 2021 9:21 am

CPC January update has La Niña dominating but a possible change to ENSO Neutral may occur by late Spring or Summer. Notice that the blue line that is La Niña goes up slightly by JAS and ASO.

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https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11757 Postby JetFuel_SE » Thu Jan 14, 2021 4:08 pm

Kingarabian wrote:GFS and Euro show a moderate and expansive EPAC WWB that will last for 2 weeks.

https://i.postimg.cc/6QRnb7Fg/gfsw-wbs.png

In regards to ENSO what matters most is the wind anomalies near the dateline @ 180. Even in the 850mb wind charts It's clear and obvious that La Nina is in full control. But this EPAC WWB will help to slow down upwelling over the Nino 3+4, Nino 3, and Nino 1+2 regions. It looks substantial enough to bring SST anomalies in those regions back to neutral because it will also have help from a downwelling Kelvin wave. In the next few months current downwelling Kelvin wave should be in the CPAC and EPAC. Some of those anomalies will reach the surface and it's possible to see positive anomalies by mid/end of Spring.

After that time it's very unlikely we'll see any more downwelling Kelvin waves because the base state is clearly La Nina. As we enter the summer, the July trades should come back and help the La Nina recover. For reference, this is what happened in 2012 and 2017.

Looking like a more west-based one right now, and with the WWB over the EPAC, it'll be interesting to see how it develops.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11758 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jan 14, 2021 6:36 pm

As always, the ENSO Blog offers a general perspective of how are things going and what to expect.

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... stinations
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11759 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jan 17, 2021 4:23 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Looking at the subsurface, since the summer there has been downwelling Kelvin waves developing but getting shunted before reaching the dateline. That's due to the prolonged strong trades near the dateline. Have to watch and see what happens in December and January, if trades can slow down and this ample amount of subsurface warmth can breach 180 and get to the CPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/OGDzwMS.png


I know this is a little old but this seems usual for La Niña (especially ones that aren't weak) as the water gets piled up there. I remember going through data from the La Niña in the late 1990s and you had warm pool attempts but they never got far with the La Niña atmospheric base state. As you said though, it really depends on the trades
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11760 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jan 18, 2021 4:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:CPC January update has La Niña dominating but a possible change to ENSO Neutral may occur by late Spring or Summer. Notice that the blue line that is La Niña goes up slightly by JAS and ASO.

https://i.imgur.com/2SMW1EE.png

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml


Yeah to be fair, imho a "double dip" La Nina seems like the most likely scenario, where 2020 is a solidly moderate La Nina and 2021 is a weak La Nina with a slight increase to neutral in between both hurricane seasons (which would then drop to La Nina territory by the time the 2021 season ends at least). Not sure if an El Nino this year is likely, although I personally would be more curious to see if this current La Nina base state is so strong 2022 is another La Nina or neutral year or if the base state weakens and makes 2022 an El Nino-prone year.
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