ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC April update: Neutral by May

#11901 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:05 pm

Definitely gotta watch that potential WPAC system for the implications it could have downstream regarding ENSO, since it could very well determine how intense this upcoming WWB will get. Right now each of what I like to call the "big three" models on Tropical Tidbits are showing highly divergent scenarios. GFS has a super typhoon, Euro has a moderate TS impacting the Philippines, and CMC has absolutely nothing. GFS and CMC are basically extreme scenarios on opposite sides of the spectrum so if I were to favor a scenario at the moment I would personally lean towards the middle ground in the Euro's solution at the moment, but I suppose we'll see which model eventually caves to what.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC April update: Neutral by May

#11902 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:59 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Definitely gotta watch that potential WPAC system for the implications it could have downstream regarding ENSO, since it could very well determine how intense this upcoming WWB will get. Right now each of what I like to call the "big three" models on Tropical Tidbits are showing highly divergent scenarios. GFS has a super typhoon, Euro has a moderate TS impacting the Philippines, and CMC has absolutely nothing. GFS and CMC are basically extreme scenarios on opposite sides of the spectrum so if I were to favor a scenario at the moment I would personally lean towards the middle ground in the Euro's solution at the moment, but I suppose we'll see which model eventually caves to what.

It's the initial strength and duration of the couple of disturbance(s) near the equator that are going to be the most meaningful. The GFS appears to be keeping a fairly strong and active monsoon trough near the equator which is reflecting on its 850mb wind forecasts.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11903 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 10, 2021 2:39 am

The GFS has shown a rather significant WWB compared to its peers. It shows +25/+30 M/S while the Euro and CFS show no more than +10 M/S. Per RMM, all the models agree on the same MJO amplitude. The major difference between it and the other models had been its forecasts for strong TC's over the WPAC. Tonight's 00z runs, for the first time, show the major models all developing a significant WPAC typhoon within the next 10 days.

So with the models now seemingly in agreement on a significant WPAC Typhoon, does it mean the GFS WWB is likely to verify? The strong typhoon that the models are in agreement with will be deepening well north of 5N. When it comes to ENSO, the low level winds we watch for are situated between 5N and 5S. Remains to be seen whether the GFS WWB will verify... but the reason the Euro and Canadian are agreeing now, could be due to those models latching on to a strong WWB as well or it could simply be due to the incredible WPAC OHC? Something to watch for in the next 10 days.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11904 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:38 am

Kingarabian pretty much already mentioned this above but Euro definitely took a major step towards the GFS overnight with a significantly stronger system in the WPAC than in prior runs. However, two differences that still stand out are the location and size of the typhoon. GFS is far larger and further E than the Euro which allows for a greater extent of westerlies along the equator and thus a more intense WWB.
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Euro on the other hand is smaller and further W (close to the Philippines) so the westerlies aren't as strong or extensive.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11905 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 10, 2021 4:11 pm

DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Kingarabian pretty much already mentioned this above but Euro definitely took a major step towards the GFS overnight with a significantly stronger system in the WPAC than in prior runs. However, two differences that still stand out are the location and size of the typhoon. GFS is far larger and further E than the Euro which allows for a greater extent of westerlies along the equator and thus a more intense WWB.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bJcGcQ8/gfs-2021-04-10-06-Z-216-17-429-116-914-6-202-971-Vorticity-850-2.png[url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/Cs0cL35/gfs-u850a-Mean-wpac-6.png[url]

Euro on the other hand is smaller and further W (close to the Philippines) so the westerlies aren't as strong or extensive.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/S5dSkPP/ecmwf-2021-04-10-00-Z-216-17-429-116-914-6-202-971-Vorticity-850-2.png[url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/9V6pfW8/ecmwf-u850a-Mean-wpac-6.png[url]


I think you're on to something here. 12z Euro had the Typhoon more east compared to its 00z run, and the result was a bit more westerlies near the equator.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11906 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:07 am

CPC Weekly update has Niño 3.4 at -0.5C and ONI JFM down to -0.9C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11907 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:16 am

CFSv2 dips to La Niña by SON.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11908 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:55 pm

If the modeling pans out, I hope we see some case studies or papers on this MJO passage/WWB event that has spawned TD04 in the WPAC. While it's common to see decently low latitude TC origins in WWB induced systems, I can't find any spring STY origins this low and close to the equator. This WWB event is currently live and per the models, it will last for at least another 10-14 days. So we won't know the effects (if any) until about a month from now.

Image


Models also don't know what to do with the MJO signal, consistently having to retract the signal.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11909 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Apr 14, 2021 2:56 am

Despite the MJO presence over the Pacific, the 12z Euro had a pretty positive SOI setup for the next 10 days. Appears to be an averaged out +6 for the next 10 days, to be added to the 30 day average. 2008 and 2011 which were both failed El Nino/+ENSO attempt years had very positive SOI values for FMA.

Code: Select all

Tahiti:
April 14:1012.50
April 15:1014.00
April 16:1013.50
April 17:1013.00
April 18:1014.50
April 19:1015.00
April 20:1014.00
April 21:1014.00
April 22:1014.00

Darwin:
April 14:1010.50
April 15:1010.75
April 16:1011.25
April 17:1011.25
April 18:1010.75
April 19:1010.00
April 20:1010.25
April 21:1011.50
April 22:1011.75
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11910 Postby TROPICALCYCLONEALERT » Thu Apr 15, 2021 11:52 am

TROPICALCYCLONEALERT wrote:Guess this is pertinent now. Would be a excellent way to obliterate the existing Niña, given verification of course. Some sort of weakened trade winds in that time period wouldn’t really surprise me, given the passage of MJO as KingArabian has alluded to earlier in this thread. PDO/PMM/WAM combination still isn’t incredibly favorable to the development of a niño, but I’d have to wonder how close we get.


A solid 12 days later, and we've reached some sort of verification. There is indeed a typhoon in the works north of the equator, but there is no relevant southern hemisphere counterpart. Westerlies....exist locally, as expected based on the presence of the cyclone and the MJO, but this is far from adequate to trigger a significant change in ENSO.
Image

First and foremost, these westerlies are located well to the west of where one would expect them to be had there been a genuine attempt at a Niño. This is a result of genesis within the monsoon trough occurring rather far west, closer to the Philippines (who are under threat from the cyclone) and away from the dateline. As a result, trade winds continue to make themselves known further east, despite large-scale rising motion over the Pacific (centered over the dateline). One could certainly argue that the exact placement of the westerlies shouldn't be relevant here, given that they're still occurring over the IPWP, which is true to an extent. However, the lack of a well organized southern component that would form an equatorial rossby wave along with TS Surigae means that the surge of westerly wind is located to the north of the equator.

Image

So while this probably won't have much of a longlasting impact on ENSO (other than bringing us to neutral, which was already anticipated), there's a chance that this could add to the development of a +PMM over the next few weeks (though again, it might be too far west to have a major impact). This development has arguably already begun, with marked warming occurring over the NEPAC and modeled weakened ridging in the coming weeks (potentially hinging upon the midlatitude impacts of Surigae as well!), but it remains to be seen if this becomes a persistent feature. With regards to the Atlantic hurricane season, this warming should be watched because +PMM could imply deep convection (potentially TC's) over the Eastern Pacific, that induce TUTT formation downstream through their anticyclonic outflow.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11911 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:35 pm

TROPICALCYCLONEALERT wrote:A solid 12 days later, and we've reached some sort of verification. There is indeed a typhoon in the works north of the equator, but there is no relevant southern hemisphere counterpart. Westerlies....exist locally, as expected based on the presence of the cyclone and the MJO, but this is far from adequate to trigger a significant change in ENSO.
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/832293693637525574/gfs_0N_hov_uanom_2021041506.png[url]

First and foremost, these westerlies are located well to the west of where one would expect them to be had there been a genuine attempt at a Niño. This is a result of genesis within the monsoon trough occurring rather far west, closer to the Philippines (who are under threat from the cyclone) and away from the dateline. As a result, trade winds continue to make themselves known further east, despite large-scale rising motion over the Pacific (centered over the dateline). One could certainly argue that the exact placement of the westerlies shouldn't be relevant here, given that they're still occurring over the IPWP, which is true to an extent. However, the lack of a well organized southern component that would form an equatorial rossby wave along with TS Surigae means that the surge of westerly wind is located to the north of the equator.

[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/832295579676704858/gfs_15N_hov_uanom_2021041506.png[url]

So while this probably won't have much of a longlasting impact on ENSO (other than bringing us to neutral, which was already anticipated), there's a chance that this could add to the development of a +PMM over the next few weeks (though again, it might be too far west to have a major impact). This development has arguably already begun, with marked warming occurring over the NEPAC and modeled weakened ridging in the coming weeks (potentially hinging upon the midlatitude impacts of Surigae as well!), but it remains to be seen if this becomes a persistent feature. With regards to the Atlantic hurricane season, this warming should be watched because +PMM could imply deep convection (potentially TC's) over the Eastern Pacific, that induce TUTT formation downstream through their anticyclonic outflow.
[url]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/832296981330001970/crw_ssta_change_nepac.png[url]
[url]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2021041506/gfs-ens_mslpaMean_npac_6.png[url]

Very interesting PMM developments for sure.

During the spring, strong MJO activity over the MC can aide +ENSO. The impacts of this ongoing WWB event was always going to be at the subsurface (if any). Even if a WWB is well west of the dateline, it can have a considerable impact on ENSO if it can trigger a downwelling KW. We recently saw this in February which had a brief but moderate strength WWB, and it ended up triggering a stout downwelling KW. This same downwelling K/W is responsible for flipping ENSO back to neutral.

We won't know until about 2-3 weeks after a WWB event in how it impacted the subsurface. This WWB event (at least the +8/+10 ms anomalies) still has about 7 days left. But we do know this particular event is stronger and has a longer duration compared to the February WWB. It's very likely that we're about to see back to back stout downwelling KW's. I'm not saying that's it going to happen but to get +ENSO, there has to be successive downwelling KW's.

Right now it's still up in the air on what's going to happen. It remains a very similar look to 2011. This is the 2011 July CFS:
Image
We need to watch the actual Nino region SST's and see if they warm up much more than they did back in 2011. In 2011 the subsurface had an abundant amount of positive anomalies but the actual surface temperatures failed to warm.

Down the line: The inactive/suppressed phase of the MJO is going to be setting up over the IO and likely move over the WPAC in a few weeks. Throughout the month of May, it's very possible that a strong trade burst is to setup over the dateline again -- and in theory it should promote upwelling. But the last strong trade burst in March failed to cause any significant upwelling below the surface. If this fails to occur then it might open up the door for +ENSO because the long range models show another strong MJO moving over the Pacific in June.
Image

I think the April Euro seasonal forecast for Nino 3.4 is spot on. It's a truly 50/50 chance for warm neutral and cool neutral come ASO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11912 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:58 pm

I will say that at least given the 5 analog years for 2021 (1996, 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2017), four of those years were followed by an El Nino year, so I do think regardless of what happens this year 2022 will have a decent chance of being an El Nino year. Of course just because an El Nino year is in place does not mean we should ignore the Atlantic and the "it only takes one" statement, although I would be very curious to see if in future years the WAM remains potent and actually blunts the effects and formations of a forming El Nino kind of like it did in 2018 and 2019. The WAM has been pretty strong for the past several years and is expected to be strong again this year, so sometimes I do wonder (assuming this pattern continues) whether future El Ninos may not be as detrimental to the Atlantic as they were in the past.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11913 Postby ClarCari » Sat Apr 17, 2021 5:28 am

Even with Surigae becoming possibly the strongest, if not one of the strongest in April, I doubt it signifies enough westerly activity to a +ENSO switch. It will already gain latitude by it’s peak, and Equatorial anomalies will experience negligible effects from the Typhoon and instead be more influenced by KW in the next few weeks. But it’s like rolling down a tall but almost level mountain; the ball rolling down won’t roll down fast and would need alot of push, which in this case is rather overly-excessive MJO and KW activity to the equatorial eastern-pacific regions. Then once you reach later May and into June and July the WAM and Trades become a giant leef-blower that blows that boulder rolling down back to the top, negating much of the effects of the westerly anomalies.
Warm ENSO by JJA or at latest JAS would be shocking. At best the ENSO tipping it’s toe into warm-neutral territory would happen by late this month or early May.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11914 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:24 am

ClarCari wrote:Even with Surigae becoming possibly the strongest, if not one of the strongest in April, I doubt it signifies enough westerly activity to a +ENSO switch. It will already gain latitude by it’s peak, and Equatorial anomalies will experience negligible effects from the Typhoon and instead be more influenced by KW in the next few weeks. But it’s like rolling down a tall but almost level mountain; the ball rolling down won’t roll down fast and would need alot of push, which in this case is rather overly-excessive MJO and KW activity to the equatorial eastern-pacific regions. Then once you reach later May and into June and July the WAM and Trades become a giant leef-blower that blows that boulder rolling down back to the top, negating much of the effects of the westerly anomalies.
Warm ENSO by JJA or at latest JAS would be shocking. At best the ENSO tipping it’s toe into warm-neutral territory would happen by late this month or early May.

Modeling and present + future observations strongly suggest that Nino 3.4 will be in warm neutral range for at least May and June. The present downwelling KW will be exhausted by the end of May/early June. It is very plausible that the climo July trades reverse the warming and cool down the Nino regions again. But It's also likely that a new downwelling KW will start right around the first week of May and, take about 2-3 months to reach the EPAC. Very tricky ENSO forecast.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11915 Postby cycloneye » Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:01 am

Kingarabian wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Even with Surigae becoming possibly the strongest, if not one of the strongest in April, I doubt it signifies enough westerly activity to a +ENSO switch. It will already gain latitude by it’s peak, and Equatorial anomalies will experience negligible effects from the Typhoon and instead be more influenced by KW in the next few weeks. But it’s like rolling down a tall but almost level mountain; the ball rolling down won’t roll down fast and would need alot of push, which in this case is rather overly-excessive MJO and KW activity to the equatorial eastern-pacific regions. Then once you reach later May and into June and July the WAM and Trades become a giant leef-blower that blows that boulder rolling down back to the top, negating much of the effects of the westerly anomalies.
Warm ENSO by JJA or at latest JAS would be shocking. At best the ENSO tipping it’s toe into warm-neutral territory would happen by late this month or early May.

Modeling and present + future observations strongly suggest that Nino 3.4 will be in warm neutral range for at least May and June. The present downwelling KW will be exhausted by the end of May/early June. It is very plausible that the climo July trades reverse the warming and cool down the Nino regions again. But It's also likely that a new downwelling KW will start right around the first week of May and, take about 2-3 months to reach the EPAC. Very tricky ENSO forecast.


And the tricky spills to the Atlantic hurricane season forecasts.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11916 Postby ClarCari » Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Even with Surigae becoming possibly the strongest, if not one of the strongest in April, I doubt it signifies enough westerly activity to a +ENSO switch. It will already gain latitude by it’s peak, and Equatorial anomalies will experience negligible effects from the Typhoon and instead be more influenced by KW in the next few weeks. But it’s like rolling down a tall but almost level mountain; the ball rolling down won’t roll down fast and would need alot of push, which in this case is rather overly-excessive MJO and KW activity to the equatorial eastern-pacific regions. Then once you reach later May and into June and July the WAM and Trades become a giant leef-blower that blows that boulder rolling down back to the top, negating much of the effects of the westerly anomalies.
Warm ENSO by JJA or at latest JAS would be shocking. At best the ENSO tipping it’s toe into warm-neutral territory would happen by late this month or early May.

Modeling and present + future observations strongly suggest that Nino 3.4 will be in warm neutral range for at least May and June. The present downwelling KW will be exhausted by the end of May/early June. It is very plausible that the climo July trades reverse the warming and cool down the Nino regions again. But It's also likely that a new downwelling KW will start right around the first week of May and, take about 2-3 months to reach the EPAC. Very tricky ENSO forecast.

I think you and I agree that theres some good potential for a short-term (and I mean really short) warm-neutral like response in Nino 3.4 for about a month, maybe slightly more.
And the amount of KW needed to substantially warm the ENSO thru JAS, ASO, and onwards to needs to be successive, one after the otherrrrr.
I think it’s tricky between a double-dip weak La Niña, most likely Cool-Neutral, and the slighter chance of Warm-Neutral. But there is fairly good consensus that a even a Weak El Niño isn’t really possible until 2022.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11917 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Apr 17, 2021 4:39 pm

I also sincerely think the WAM in recent times has been quite a driving force in allowing the Atlantic to be active even in meh years like 2018 and 2019 which possessed El Nino-linked limitations like shear. We'll have to watch if the WAM is potent again next year, although I certainly would be very curious to see (hypothetically speaking) how active the Atlantic could get next year assuming an El Nino is trying to form but the WAM remains strong. Although obviously this would be a later issue to examine, let alone it happening.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11918 Postby tolakram » Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:12 pm

ClarCari wrote:I think you and I agree that theres some good potential for a short-term (and I mean really short) warm-neutral like response in Nino 3.4 for about a month, maybe slightly more.
And the amount of KW needed to substantially warm the ENSO thru JAS, ASO, and onwards to needs to be successive, one after the otherrrrr.
I think it’s tricky between a double-dip weak La Niña, most likely Cool-Neutral, and the slighter chance of Warm-Neutral. But there is fairly good consensus that a even a Weak El Niño isn’t really possible until 2022.



We're still in April, model output is literally meaningless. :D The spring barrier should teach us all never to be surprised by surprises, and never believe any consensus. On May 15th we'll see what everything is saying as the skills start to rise a bit.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11919 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Sun Apr 18, 2021 11:17 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:I also sincerely think the WAM in recent times has been quite a driving force in allowing the Atlantic to be active even in meh years like 2018 and 2019 which possessed El Nino-linked limitations like shear. We'll have to watch if the WAM is potent again next year, although I certainly would be very curious to see (hypothetically speaking) how active the Atlantic could get next year assuming an El Nino is trying to form but the WAM remains strong. Although obviously this would be a later issue to examine, let alone it happening.

This was posted in the indicators thread but that is basically what the Euro shows - the African Standing Wave comes roaring back by the beginning of the summer and dominates the global pattern into the fall. Should this come to fruition then yes, it would help to provide resistance against any significant progression towards a warmer ENSO state (El Niño in particular).
 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1382415610479583232


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Re: ENSO Updates

#11920 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 19, 2021 8:20 am

Niño 3.4 at -0.4C on CPC weekly update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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