ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11921 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:11 pm

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384171583023968259




Looks like as of recently an overwhelming number of models are calling for cool neutral, which can be just as "bad" as a weak Nina based on historic activity.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11922 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:29 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384171583023968259

Looks like as of recently an overwhelming number of models are calling for cool neutral, which can be just as "bad" as a weak Nina based on historic activity.


Here's an updated graph from the BOM that shows what the more reliable models are thinking for the next 4 months:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-sum ... ific-Ocean
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11923 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 19, 2021 4:32 pm

Another big sign that we're entering the neutral ENSO phase is the strong trades set to setup over the IO:
Image

This hasn't been the case for the past 5 months:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11924 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:52 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1384171583023968259

Looks like as of recently an overwhelming number of models are calling for cool neutral, which can be just as "bad" as a weak Nina based on historic activity.


Here's an updated graph from the BOM that shows what the more reliable models are thinking for the next 4 months:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-sum ... ific-Ocean

By August the models are split 50/50 between cool and warm neutral ENSO in NINO 3.4. August 2020 ended up at -0.42°C. Based on this, forecasts for August issued in April 2020 were mostly accurate, according to the mean, but the NOAA and BoM models (NASA’s is not running this time) were too cool, the UKMET was “spot on,” and METEO, CanSIPS, JMA, and ECMWF were too warm. Currently, the UK, JMA, and BoM are calling for warm neutral ENSO in August. So three of the four models with a warm bias last year are calling for either dead neutral (CanSIPS) or cool neutral (EC, METEO) ENSO by August 2021. However, the relatively reliable UK is calling for warm neutral ENSO by that time, as is the cool-biased BoM. So overall there is a fairly even split and wide spread among the possible solutions this year. Anything from borderline Niña to borderline Niño is still well within the range of possibility. However, the upcoming evolution over the IO may well tip the scale toward warm neutral vs. other solutions, and thus would portend potentially good news for storm-weary Atlantic residents, though not so for the Pacific basin.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11925 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Apr 20, 2021 9:53 am

45 day EPS is joining the CFS in killing the sinking branch near the dateline and attempting to setup a rising branch instead.

Image

Odd because both models are favoring cool neutral. So either their Walker circulation forecasts or their cool-neutral forecasts are going to bust.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11926 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Wed Apr 21, 2021 11:55 am

On a (somewhat) related note:
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1384912957763686402



Also you have to admit this is kinda funny:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11927 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Apr 22, 2021 2:43 am

Despite the appearance of this downwelling KW erupting below Nino 3 and Nino 1+2, it hasn't caused significant warming at the surface. Only Nino 4 has responded, the rest have been consistently cool. There will be a 2 week period of very weak trades across the entire Pacific, so we'll see if the rest of the Nino warm up.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1383742141432664067



 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1383742370290692109




The upcoming downwelling KW needs to come in warmer than what we're currently seeing if there is to be any chance of +ENSO this summer.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11928 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:06 pm

Models showing a pretty good looking trade burst on the way for most of the Pacific, east of 180:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11929 Postby SteveM » Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:18 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Models showing a pretty good looking trade burst on the way for most of the Pacific, east of 180:
https://i.imgur.com/rRbrb81.png


What does that mean for the ENSO?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11930 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Apr 24, 2021 4:27 pm

SteveM wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Models showing a pretty good looking trade burst on the way for most of the Pacific, east of 180:
https://i.imgur.com/rRbrb81.png


What does that mean for the ENSO?

This is an expected event because of the convectively suppressed MJO forecast to move over the Pacific. It'll very likely act to keep the surface temperatures over the Nino regions cool and probably negate some of the effects of this erupting downwelling KW.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11931 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Apr 25, 2021 3:07 am

Kingarabian wrote:
SteveM wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:Models showing a pretty good looking trade burst on the way for most of the Pacific, east of 180:
https://i.imgur.com/rRbrb81.png


What does that mean for the ENSO?

This is an expected event because of the convectively suppressed MJO forecast to move over the Pacific. It'll very likely act to keep the surface temperatures over the Nino regions cool and probably negate some of the effects of this erupting downwelling KW.

Do you think we’ll end up with cool neutral or warm neutral ENSO come ASO? Also, will the warmest SST be east-based or west-based, in your view?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11932 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Apr 25, 2021 7:25 pm

Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
SteveM wrote:
What does that mean for the ENSO?

This is an expected event because of the convectively suppressed MJO forecast to move over the Pacific. It'll very likely act to keep the surface temperatures over the Nino regions cool and probably negate some of the effects of this erupting downwelling KW.

Do you think we’ll end up with cool neutral or warm neutral ENSO come ASO? Also, will the warmest SST be east-based or west-based, in your view?


In the reliable satellite era it's rare to see a warm ENSO following a moderate La Nina. I know Eric Webb said historically (going back to the 1800s), first year La Nina's only have a 50% chance of being followed up with another La Nina. Meaning there's room for +ENSO... but I don't think we've seen this type of scenario in the last 50 years. I'm siding with recent climo on this one and I think we'll eventually see a return to cool-neutral conditions (currently: atmospherically out of La Nina, SST's are still at cool neutral levels) followed by a return to La Nina in the fall. I'm not that confident in this scenario as I was early on in the season and I wouldn't be surprised if we did see warm neutral, but I won't believe it till I see it. If that makes sense.


Some key variables in favor of a +ENSO:

The March-April-May (MAM) SOI value IF May ends up negative. So far March and April are weakly negative for 2021.

In the most recent double dip La Nina years, particularly years that follow a moderate or strong La Nina, those years have a much more positive 90 day SOI average during MAM than what we're observing.
2011 SOI MAM average: +14
2008 SOI MAM average: +3.6
2000 SOI MAM average: +9.3

This means that during this 90 day period, La Nina atmospheric forcing is typically in full effect for 2nd year La Nina's, and per the SOI it's non existent in the past the 60 days.

Downwelling Kelvin Waves
An erupting downwelling KW followed by another downwelling KW currently in the WPAC and set to move east. This will ensure a warm subsurface through July/August.

MJO activity.
The MJO has been active since February and again in April. Per the models, there will be another strong MJO passage over the WPAC by the 3rd week of May. ENSO changes are more likely to happen when the MJO starts playing a role.

Key variables against +ENSO:
SST's over the Nino regions have failed to warm. We seen something similar happen in 2011 when an erupting downwelling KW failed to warm the surface.
Climotology. This is the biggest inhibiting variable IMO.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Apr 26, 2021 2:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11933 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Apr 25, 2021 9:32 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:This is an expected event because of the convectively suppressed MJO forecast to move over the Pacific. It'll very likely act to keep the surface temperatures over the Nino regions cool and probably negate some of the effects of this erupting downwelling KW.

Do you think we’ll end up with cool neutral or warm neutral ENSO come ASO? Also, will the warmest SST be east-based or west-based, in your view?


In the reliable satellite era it's rare to see a warm ENSO following a moderate La Nina. I know Eric Webb said historically (going back to the 1800s), first year La Nina's only have a 50% chance of being followed up with another La Nina. Meaning there's room for +ENSO... but I don't think we've seen this type of scenario in the last 50 years. I'm siding with recent climo on this one and I think we'll eventually see a return to cool-neutral conditions (currently: atmospherically out of La Nina, SST's are still at cool neutral levels) followed by a return to La Nina in the fall. I'm not that confident in this scenario as I was early on in the season and I wouldn't be surprised if we did see warm neutral, but I won't believe it till I see it. If that makes sense.


Some key variables in favor of a +ENSO:

The March-April-May (MAM) SOI value IF May ends up negative. So far March and April are weakly negative for 2021.

In the most recent double dip La Nina years, particularly years that follow a moderate or strong La Nina, those years have a much more positive 90 day SOI average during MAM than what we're observing.
2011 SOI MAM average: +14
2008 SOI MAM average: +3.6
2000 SOI MAM average: +9.3

This means that during this 90 day period, La Nina atmospheric forcing is typically in full effect for 2nd year La Nina's, and per the SOI it's non existent in the past the 60 days.

Downwelling Kelvin Waves
An erupting downwelling KW followed by another downwelling KW currently in the WPAC and set to move east. This will ensure a warm subsurface through July/August.

MJO activity.
The MJO has been active since February and again in April. Per the models, there will be another strong MJO passage over the WPAC by the 3rd week of May. ENSO changes are more likely to happen when the MJO starts playing a role.

Key variables against +ENSO:
SST's over the Nino regions have failed to warm. We seen something similar happen in 2011 when an erupting downwelling KW failed to warm the surface.
Climotology. This is the biggest inhibiting variable IMO.


Very well explained! If I recall correctly, 2012 and 2013 both ended up as cool neutral years; the 2010-2011 La Nina was a remarkably profound event.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11934 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Apr 26, 2021 1:28 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:This is an expected event because of the convectively suppressed MJO forecast to move over the Pacific. It'll very likely act to keep the surface temperatures over the Nino regions cool and probably negate some of the effects of this erupting downwelling KW.

Do you think we’ll end up with cool neutral or warm neutral ENSO come ASO? Also, will the warmest SST be east-based or west-based, in your view?


In the reliable satellite era it's rare to see a warm ENSO following a moderate La Nina. I know Eric Webb said historically (going back to the 1800s), first year La Nina's only have a 50% chance of being followed up with another La Nina. Meaning there's room for +ENSO... but I don't think we've seen this type of scenario in the last 50 years. I'm siding with recent climo on this one and I think we'll eventually see a return to cool-neutral conditions (currently: atmospherically out of La Nina, SST's are still at cool neutral levels) followed by a return to La Nina in the fall. I'm not that confident in this scenario as I was early on in the season and I wouldn't be surprised if we did see warm neutral, but I won't believe it till I see it. If that makes sense.


Some key variables in favor of a +ENSO:

The March-April-May (MAM) SOI value IF May ends up negative. So far March and April are weakly negative for 2021.

In the most recent double dip La Nina years, particularly years that follow a moderate or strong La Nina, those years have a much more positive 90 day SOI average during MAM than what we're observing.
2011 SOI MAM average: +14
2008 SOI MAM average: +3.6
2000 SOI MAM average: +9.3

This means that during this 90 day period, La Nina atmospheric forcing is typically in full effect for 2nd year La Nina's, and per the SOI it's non existent in the past the 60 days.

Downwelling Kelvin Waves
An erupting downwelling KW followed by another downwelling KW currently in the WPAC and set to move east. This will ensure a warm subsurface through July/August.

MJO activity.
The MJO has been active since February and again in April. Per the models, there will be another strong MJO passage over the WPAC by the 3rd week of May. ENSO changes are more likely to happen when the MJO starts playing a role.

Key variables against +ENSO:
SST's over the Nino regions have failed to warm. We seen something similar happen in 2011 when an erupting downwelling KW failed to warm the surface.
Climotology. This is the biggest inhibiting variable IMO.

Personally, I would side with warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO 2021. The atmosphere and subsurface have clearly shifted out of La Niña and are aligned toward + ENSO. While significant surface warming has yet to occur, the last significant trade surge failed to yield substantial surface cooling. The upcoming downwelling Kelvin waves, coupled with the influence of the MJO and even a modest but sustained WWB, should be sufficient to result in warming of the surface, given that the proverbial “door” to + ENSO has already opened and nothing obvious seems to be resisting the overall trend. So I don’t think those negative SST anomalies are sustainable in the medium term. This year clearly isn’t comparable to either 2008 or 2011, much less 2000, given the SOI alone. I think this year has the highest “bust” potential for CSU’s forecast since 2015. For the first time since 2015 CSU’s forecast may turn out to be too bullish rather than insufficiently so. Bottom line: the weight of evidence, even via inertia, points toward future warming of the equatorial Pacific and a trend toward warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO 2021. I think people are being unduly influenced by last season and their forecasts are too aggressive as a result. But we shall see.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11935 Postby ClarCari » Mon Apr 26, 2021 4:15 am

Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Do you think we’ll end up with cool neutral or warm neutral ENSO come ASO? Also, will the warmest SST be east-based or west-based, in your view?


In the reliable satellite era it's rare to see a warm ENSO following a moderate La Nina. I know Eric Webb said historically (going back to the 1800s), first year La Nina's only have a 50% chance of being followed up with another La Nina. Meaning there's room for +ENSO... but I don't think we've seen this type of scenario in the last 50 years. I'm siding with recent climo on this one and I think we'll eventually see a return to cool-neutral conditions (currently: atmospherically out of La Nina, SST's are still at cool neutral levels) followed by a return to La Nina in the fall. I'm not that confident in this scenario as I was early on in the season and I wouldn't be surprised if we did see warm neutral, but I won't believe it till I see it. If that makes sense.


Some key variables in favor of a +ENSO:

The March-April-May (MAM) SOI value IF May ends up negative. So far March and April are weakly negative for 2021.

In the most recent double dip La Nina years, particularly years that follow a moderate or strong La Nina, those years have a much more positive 90 day SOI average during MAM than what we're observing.
2011 SOI MAM average: +14
2008 SOI MAM average: +3.6
2000 SOI MAM average: +9.3

This means that during this 90 day period, La Nina atmospheric forcing is typically in full effect for 2nd year La Nina's, and per the SOI it's non existent in the past the 60 days.

Downwelling Kelvin Waves
An erupting downwelling KW followed by another downwelling KW currently in the WPAC and set to move east. This will ensure a warm subsurface through July/August.

MJO activity.
The MJO has been active since February and again in April. Per the models, there will be another strong MJO passage over the WPAC by the 3rd week of May. ENSO changes are more likely to happen when the MJO starts playing a role.

Key variables against +ENSO:
SST's over the Nino regions have failed to warm. We seen something similar happen in 2011 when an erupting downwelling KW failed to warm the surface.
Climotology. This is the biggest inhibiting variable IMO.

Personally, I would side with warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO 2021. The atmosphere and subsurface have clearly shifted out of La Niña and are aligned toward + ENSO. While significant surface warming has yet to occur, the last significant trade surge failed to yield substantial surface cooling. The upcoming downwelling Kelvin waves, coupled with the influence of the MJO and even a modest but sustained WWB, should be sufficient to result in warming of the surface, given that the proverbial “door” to + ENSO has already opened and nothing obvious seems to be resisting the overall trend. So I don’t think those negative SST anomalies are sustainable in the medium term. This year clearly isn’t comparable to either 2008 or 2011, much less 2000, given the SOI alone. I think this year has the highest “bust” potential for CSU’s forecast since 2015. For the first time since 2015 CSU’s forecast may turn out to be too bullish rather than insufficiently so. Bottom line: the weight of evidence, even via inertia, points toward future warming of the equatorial Pacific and a trend toward warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO 2021. I think people are being unduly influenced by last season and their forecasts are too aggressive as a result. But we shall see.

Shell Mound,

I appreciate your discussion and love hearing different perspectives on meteorological happenings as long as they are sound. I think your input on the ENSO direction is farrrrrrr more informed than some Twitter wtx accounts may be. :lol:

Thusssss, I have to have a fun challenge and disagree with your assessment that the ENSO has a higher chance of being +ENSO for the hurricane season. :)

To put it simply, climo and stats and the current state of the ENSO doesn’t care about either of our opinions; there is almost no chance of even a Warm Neutral ENSO this season and any variation of a +ENSO.
I re-looked at past data, and discovered the UKMET model does indeed have a history of +ENSO bias during SPB despite you arguing otherwise.

Kingarabian said it best earlier, to get a +ENSO this year, there MUST be SUCCESSIVE CCKW activity to eeeeekkkk out a +ENSO switch and it’s an uphill battle.

There is ZERO substantial evidence for a +ENSO at this time.

Again this is a challenge and I love a good discussion when I say this, but you aren’t giving much evidence for us on this board for what you’re seeing. You seem to maybe take a bit too much stock into the +ENSO biased models and disregarding the -ENSO models which have more support by current data and climatology.

Kingarabian also said it best saying we all have our biases with these models and predictions. I very well may be no different. I’m just curious to understand your confidence in a +ENSO for the hurricane season at this time. There’s definitely alot to discuss here at least, no question.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11936 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Apr 26, 2021 5:15 am

ClarCari wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
In the reliable satellite era it's rare to see a warm ENSO following a moderate La Nina. I know Eric Webb said historically (going back to the 1800s), first year La Nina's only have a 50% chance of being followed up with another La Nina. Meaning there's room for +ENSO... but I don't think we've seen this type of scenario in the last 50 years. I'm siding with recent climo on this one and I think we'll eventually see a return to cool-neutral conditions (currently: atmospherically out of La Nina, SST's are still at cool neutral levels) followed by a return to La Nina in the fall. I'm not that confident in this scenario as I was early on in the season and I wouldn't be surprised if we did see warm neutral, but I won't believe it till I see it. If that makes sense.


Some key variables in favor of a +ENSO:

The March-April-May (MAM) SOI value IF May ends up negative. So far March and April are weakly negative for 2021.

In the most recent double dip La Nina years, particularly years that follow a moderate or strong La Nina, those years have a much more positive 90 day SOI average during MAM than what we're observing.
2011 SOI MAM average: +14
2008 SOI MAM average: +3.6
2000 SOI MAM average: +9.3

This means that during this 90 day period, La Nina atmospheric forcing is typically in full effect for 2nd year La Nina's, and per the SOI it's non existent in the past the 60 days.

Downwelling Kelvin Waves
An erupting downwelling KW followed by another downwelling KW currently in the WPAC and set to move east. This will ensure a warm subsurface through July/August.

MJO activity.
The MJO has been active since February and again in April. Per the models, there will be another strong MJO passage over the WPAC by the 3rd week of May. ENSO changes are more likely to happen when the MJO starts playing a role.

Key variables against +ENSO:
SST's over the Nino regions have failed to warm. We seen something similar happen in 2011 when an erupting downwelling KW failed to warm the surface.
Climotology. This is the biggest inhibiting variable IMO.

Personally, I would side with warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO 2021. The atmosphere and subsurface have clearly shifted out of La Niña and are aligned toward + ENSO. While significant surface warming has yet to occur, the last significant trade surge failed to yield substantial surface cooling. The upcoming downwelling Kelvin waves, coupled with the influence of the MJO and even a modest but sustained WWB, should be sufficient to result in warming of the surface, given that the proverbial “door” to + ENSO has already opened and nothing obvious seems to be resisting the overall trend. So I don’t think those negative SST anomalies are sustainable in the medium term. This year clearly isn’t comparable to either 2008 or 2011, much less 2000, given the SOI alone. I think this year has the highest “bust” potential for CSU’s forecast since 2015. For the first time since 2015 CSU’s forecast may turn out to be too bullish rather than insufficiently so. Bottom line: the weight of evidence, even via inertia, points toward future warming of the equatorial Pacific and a trend toward warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO 2021. I think people are being unduly influenced by last season and their forecasts are too aggressive as a result. But we shall see.

Shell Mound,

I appreciate your discussion and love hearing different perspectives on meteorological happenings as long as they are sound. I think your input on the ENSO direction is farrrrrrr more informed than some Twitter wtx accounts may be. :lol:

Thusssss, I have to have a fun challenge and disagree with your assessment that the ENSO has a higher chance of being +ENSO for the hurricane season. :)

To put it simply, climo and stats and the current state of the ENSO doesn’t care about either of our opinions; there is almost no chance of even a Warm Neutral ENSO this season and any variation of a +ENSO.
I re-looked at past data, and discovered the UKMET model does indeed have a history of +ENSO bias during SPB despite you arguing otherwise.

Kingarabian said it best earlier, to get a +ENSO this year, there MUST be SUCCESSIVE CCKW activity to eeeeekkkk out a +ENSO switch and it’s an uphill battle.

There is ZERO substantial evidence for a +ENSO at this time.

Again this is a challenge and I love a good discussion when I say this, but you aren’t giving much evidence for us on this board for what you’re seeing. You seem to maybe take a bit too much stock into the +ENSO biased models and disregarding the -ENSO models which have more support by current data and climatology.

Kingarabian also said it best saying we all have our biases with these models and predictions. I very well may be no different. I’m just curious to understand your confidence in a +ENSO for the hurricane season at this time. There’s definitely alot to discuss here at least, no question.


I may be misunderstanding you here but there is proof of successive downwelling KW's and there is a chance that we could get +ENSO this summer. Pretty substantial proof in fact if you look at the subsurface:
Image

Now the reason why climo favors double dip La Nina's vs +ENSO following a moderate La Nina, is because the La Nina base state over comes the intra seasonal variability that spawns downwelling KW's and occasional WWB's. It keeps a lid on significant changes over the Nino regions and by the time July comes in, the trade winds (in non +ENSO/El Nino years) become significantly stronger and the reversal from neutral to La Nina begins. This is something we can't really forecast and just ends up happening. We saw this happen in 2000, 2008, 2011, 2012, and even 2017. The only year that sorta broke this trend was 2006, but 2005 was nowhere near a moderate La Nina as 2020 was.

So will it happen again this year? Probably. But it doesn't mean we completely disregard what's happening beneath the surface. There are no absolutes in meteorology, the climate, and the weather in general.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11937 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:12 am

Kingarabian wrote:
ClarCari wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Personally, I would side with warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO 2021. The atmosphere and subsurface have clearly shifted out of La Niña and are aligned toward + ENSO. While significant surface warming has yet to occur, the last significant trade surge failed to yield substantial surface cooling. The upcoming downwelling Kelvin waves, coupled with the influence of the MJO and even a modest but sustained WWB, should be sufficient to result in warming of the surface, given that the proverbial “door” to + ENSO has already opened and nothing obvious seems to be resisting the overall trend. So I don’t think those negative SST anomalies are sustainable in the medium term. This year clearly isn’t comparable to either 2008 or 2011, much less 2000, given the SOI alone. I think this year has the highest “bust” potential for CSU’s forecast since 2015. For the first time since 2015 CSU’s forecast may turn out to be too bullish rather than insufficiently so. Bottom line: the weight of evidence, even via inertia, points toward future warming of the equatorial Pacific and a trend toward warm neutral or + ENSO by ASO 2021. I think people are being unduly influenced by last season and their forecasts are too aggressive as a result. But we shall see.

Shell Mound,

I appreciate your discussion and love hearing different perspectives on meteorological happenings as long as they are sound. I think your input on the ENSO direction is farrrrrrr more informed than some Twitter wtx accounts may be. :lol:

Thusssss, I have to have a fun challenge and disagree with your assessment that the ENSO has a higher chance of being +ENSO for the hurricane season. :)

To put it simply, climo and stats and the current state of the ENSO doesn’t care about either of our opinions; there is almost no chance of even a Warm Neutral ENSO this season and any variation of a +ENSO.
I re-looked at past data, and discovered the UKMET model does indeed have a history of +ENSO bias during SPB despite you arguing otherwise.

Kingarabian said it best earlier, to get a +ENSO this year, there MUST be SUCCESSIVE CCKW activity to eeeeekkkk out a +ENSO switch and it’s an uphill battle.

There is ZERO substantial evidence for a +ENSO at this time.

Again this is a challenge and I love a good discussion when I say this, but you aren’t giving much evidence for us on this board for what you’re seeing. You seem to maybe take a bit too much stock into the +ENSO biased models and disregarding the -ENSO models which have more support by current data and climatology.

Kingarabian also said it best saying we all have our biases with these models and predictions. I very well may be no different. I’m just curious to understand your confidence in a +ENSO for the hurricane season at this time. There’s definitely alot to discuss here at least, no question.


I may be misunderstanding you here but there is proof of successive downwelling KW's and there is a chance that we could get +ENSO this summer. Pretty substantial proof in fact if you look at the subsurface:
https://i.postimg.cc/8C1BQ0ZH/paintskilzzz.png

Now the reason why climo favors double dip La Nina's vs +ENSO following a moderate La Nina, is because the La Nina base state over comes the intra seasonal variability that spawns downwelling KW's and occasional WWB's. It keeps a lid on significant changes over the Nino regions and by the time July comes in, the trade winds (in non +ENSO/El Nino years) become significantly stronger and the reversal from neutral to La Nina begins. This is something we can't really forecast and just ends up happening. We saw this happen in 2000, 2008, 2011, 2012, and even 2017. The only year that sorta broke this trend was 2006, but 2005 was nowhere near a moderate La Nina as 2020 was.

So will it happen again this year? Probably. But it doesn't mean we completely disregard what's happening beneath the surface. There are no absolutes in meteorology, the climate, and the weather in general.


Whatever happens this year, I personally do believe that all of that warmth in the depths of the Pacific has the potential to give rise to a very solid El Nino, although I still don't think an El Nino is likely this year. I am still willing to bet on an increase to dead neutralish or warm neutral sometime this summer, followed by a decline into cool neutral by the hurricane season heart. However, and I have said this several times in the past, but I think there really is a possibility that next year or 2023 could involve an El Nino as we are overdue for one that does not die quickly like the 2018-2019 one, although the WAM is going to be another interesting factor to take into consideration.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11938 Postby euro6208 » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:22 am

In summary, the WPAC will have a very active season (number wise or strongest of the year...It only takes one?) no matter what the state of ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11939 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:29 am

euro6208 wrote:In summary, the WPAC will have a very active season no matter what the state of ENSO.


Even last year, the WPAC got 23 named storms; unless you have something go very wrong like in 2010 or 2017, the WPAC really does not "care" about the ENSO state; in fact, as seen in years like 2008, 2010, and 2020, even if conditions are unfavorable for the WPAC, there has only been like three or four documented years when no Cat 5 super typhoon was every generated.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11940 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Apr 26, 2021 8:31 am

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/TEQMon.gif

Also by the way, this is what the CFV2 is predicting in terms of equatorial sst anomalies.
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