ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12181 Postby WiscoWx02 » Thu Nov 11, 2021 12:34 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:This might be an early clue as to what the ENSO state for 2022-2023 might be. The CanSIPS is showing very faint +ENSO conditions by September. There is a +PMM present, which could help trigger an El Niño event. It is early, but I will say that the CanSIPS caught -ENSO of 2021-2022 as early as October 2020.

https://i.postimg.cc/TYmJDT1d/cansips-ssta-noice-global-12.png

However, I will also say that the SST map conflicts with the VP map, which shows a solid La Niña-esque VP pattern during September. -VP across Africa and the Indian Ocean is to be expected, but +VP across the East Pacific during a +ENSO year seems absurd. As always when trying to forecast ENSO a year out, it is too early to say.

https://i.postimg.cc/5yykVTSH/cansips-chi200-global-12.png


I think there is a pretty good possibility we will be in El Nino this time next year. Sea temperature anomalies at depth are already showing a strong downwelling Kelvin Wave attempting to make it across the Pacific. Also a majority of the models are hinting at a possible El Nino and have been for some time. The only thing going against the possibility is that that the Pacific is in more of a -PDO than anything with all the anomalous warmth displaced in the subtropics. This could change though of course. For now though I'm assuming El Nino will return next fall regardless.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12182 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Nov 11, 2021 4:12 pm

DW KW's this time of the year typically don't really matter for next season +ENSO prospects. It's during the late winter and early spring months that matter. But IMO, it will help in keeping this La Nina from getting too strong. But it's really hard to get +ENSO with the PDO that cold as we enter the winter season. The PMM is also marginally warm. Need a significantly warmer PDO or PMM to kick off a believable trend towards +ENSO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12183 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 12, 2021 5:01 am

With -6C subsurface anomalies, this La Niña still has more juice left than I’d like for me to think next year will even make it into warm neutral territory especially with the presumed presence of an ASW during the boreal summer.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12184 Postby cycloneye » Fri Nov 12, 2021 10:53 am

The latest CPC proyection is for La Niña to hang around until May and then cold neutral comes. The question is if it goes to warm neutral by ASO.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12185 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:31 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:With -6C subsurface anomalies, this La Niña still has more juice left than I’d like for me to think next year will even make it into warm neutral territory especially with the presumed presence of an ASW during the boreal summer.


Maybe not.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1459222411899916289




 https://twitter.com/wxpatel/status/1459239837416964098




 https://twitter.com/worldclimatesvc/status/1459228650352619520


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12186 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 13, 2021 9:58 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12187 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Nov 13, 2021 7:56 pm

This is pathetic at this point:
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With all the missing data, and no government/organization wanting to fix the broken buoys, might as well shut it down. Who knows what's REALLY happening at the subsurface.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12188 Postby Chris90 » Sat Nov 13, 2021 9:05 pm

Kingarabian wrote:This is pathetic at this point:
https://i.postimg.cc/jjr63B64/sst-wind-anom-5day-ps32-2.gif

With all the missing data, and no government/organization wanting to fix the broken buoys, might as well shut it down. Who knows what's REALLY happening at the subsurface.


Considering ENSO affects global weather patterns, this is something the WMO should address, and urgently. It's not exactly a passion project for research that is helpful but not necessary, ENSO data is essential as it can have very negative and costly effects for different locations depending upon ENSO state. I'm surprised this isn't being addressed with more urgency.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12189 Postby aspen » Sat Nov 13, 2021 9:25 pm

Chris90 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:This is pathetic at this point:
https://i.postimg.cc/jjr63B64/sst-wind-anom-5day-ps32-2.gif

With all the missing data, and no government/organization wanting to fix the broken buoys, might as well shut it down. Who knows what's REALLY happening at the subsurface.


Considering ENSO affects global weather patterns, this is something the WMO should address, and urgently. It's not exactly a passion project for research that is helpful but not necessary, ENSO data is essential as it can have very negative and costly effects for different locations depending upon ENSO state. I'm surprised this isn't being addressed with more urgency.

Perhaps we’re already seeing the impact of missing data: this Nina resulting in a very unexpected suppressive global base state for TCG, and data that would’ve hinted towards this earlier in the season just wasn’t gathered because so many buoys aren’t working.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12190 Postby cycloneye » Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:04 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12191 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:51 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12192 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Nov 22, 2021 1:50 pm

A low latitude WPAC typhoon could go a long wave for putting the pause button on this Niña right now.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12193 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 23, 2021 12:12 pm

Wow, very negative PDO number for October. 2021-10-01T00:00:00Z -2.55

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/ ... e?time,PDO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12194 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:44 pm

So far doesn't look like this La Nina will go much lower than -1.0C. GODAS looks like it really is overcooking the cool anomalies. We should've seen a reading < -1.0C by now if those subsurface anomalies were legit.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12195 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:13 am

Kingarabian wrote:So far doesn't look like this La Nina will go much lower than 1.0C. GODAS looks like it really is overcooking the cool anomalies. We should've seen a reading < -1.0C by now if those subsurface anomalies were legit.


Makes me buy the idea of El Niño more next year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12196 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:33 am

Something I have noticed is that the years most commonly compared with this year in terms of the mass reduction in late season global TC activity, let alone major cyclones, include 2011, 2007, and 1977; all three years were followed with a year that was either neutral or a weak La Nina. 2012, 2008, and 1978 were not El Nino years. Also I am not sure if it's right, but isn't it typical for the WPAC to burst into life and produce many strong TCs late in the year as an indicator that the following year is likely going to head towards a warm ENSO state (2013 being a good example of this)? That does not seem to be the case at all for this year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12197 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:35 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Something I have noticed is that the years most commonly compared with this year in terms of the mass reduction in late season global TC activity, let alone major cyclones, include 2011, 2007, and 1977; all three years were followed with a year that was either neutral or a weak La Nina. 2012, 2008, and 1978 were not El Nino years. Also I am not sure if it's right, but isn't it typical for the WPAC to burst into life and produce many strong TCs late in the year as an indicator that the following year is likely going to head towards a warm ENSO state (2013 being a good example of this)? That does not seem to be the case at all for this year.



2008 was pretty lackluster in the last quarter in the Pacific but that year was followed by an El Niño. 2017, too...except for one Cat1 in December, the year-end was good as dead in WPAC, but 2018 came.

Also now could be the best time to look at the WPAC to test that theory. We now have a Cat1 Nyatoh that could turn into a major, and if the models are right this time (lol) we could see a low rider major typhoon after Nyatoh. Could these two potential major typhoons be enough to spawn a game-changing WWBs? Interesting days ahead.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12198 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Dec 05, 2021 1:19 am

Strong WWB @ 150W on the EPS. Strong trade bursts near the dateline continue. This means the subsurface will warm up quite a bit heading into January, but there will be little reflection at the surface due to the strong trades over the CPAC/EPAC.

PDO/PMM continue to look negative. PDO doesn't look like it's going to budge off the negative line but maybe the PMM will become more positive. Just by looking at PDO/PMM data from the past 30 yearsish, for there to be an El Nino or +ENSO you typically need one of the two (PMM/PDO) to be positive during Dec/Jan/Feb. The main El Nino year in this time period that had both variables negative was 2009.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12199 Postby Category5Kaiju » Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:02 pm

Just curious, but could somebody clarify how reliable or unreliable this site is regarding ENSO? They seem pretty confident that El Nino will happen next year, but I thought you cannot predict such this far in advance without passing the SPB?

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/la-nina-update-cold-enso-winter-season-el-nino-2022-forecast-fa/
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12200 Postby cycloneye » Thu Dec 09, 2021 1:00 pm

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