ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.

Doesn't seem like that to me. In March they were multiple °C apart, but the current differences can be chalked up to resolution differences

It's almost a 3.5C swing with those PENTAD/GODAS showing -2C @ the surface and the buoys showing a suppressed thermocline with +1.5C in between.

[cycloneye]

The blues are more dominating.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1129468716633210880

[Kingarabian]

Yeah, it's pretty likely El Niño ends, at least for a point. Just isn't enough heat anymore, and after this WWB, next round of Niño forcing doesn't look to arrive until June.


I think the February WWB made the Niño too strong, too early, rather than a month later like in 2015, so -ve feedbacks kicked in, which began the decay of El Niño

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.

Neither subsurface data source looks impressive for an oncoming El Niño though. The CPC graphic now shows subsurface anomalies to be in the negatives, and the TRITON data isn't too much different.

While the ONI will likely remain in El Niño thresholds through at least AMJ, ONI is a 3-month average and does not best represent the current conditions. Unless we get a round of Niño forcing in June, it's likely we dip into warm neutral at least temporarily.

Yeah I agree. Based on current conditions there's an equal possibility we will be in warm neutral for an extended time or remain in weak El Nino. Remember in 2017 we had a shallow thermocline from February 2017-June 2017 and the SST's over Nino 3.4 were hovering near +0.4C/+0.5C until the trades took over in July (or August?).

[Kingarabian]

The blues are more dominating.

https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1129468716633210880

I think this is how he's interpreting it:
 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1129468985056071685



 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1129479466441486336

[NotSparta]

We have the same problem again similar to March where the buoys and GODAS are showing different subsurface depictions.

Doesn't seem like that to me. In March they were multiple °C apart, but the current differences can be chalked up to resolution differences

It's almost a 3.5C swing with those PENTAD/GODAS showing -2C @ the surface and the buoys showing a suppressed thermocline with +1.5C in between.

Well, PENTAD has warm anomalies nearby, and a lot of TAO difference can be explained by resolution. In March, there were large differences in large areas

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1129779530955149312

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1129810383479480320

[weathaguyry]

Regardless of potential future warming, there is a plume of cold anomalies starting to surface around 105W, which will definitely have at least a short term cooling effect. Every CFS forecast shows warming until at least June, which will likely not verify at this point. IMO, something needs to happen pretty soon for the Nino to stick around into Hurricane Season, if not, the 3rd Nino bust in 3 years seems increasingly likely.

[NotSparta]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif

Regardless of potential future warming, there is a plume of cold anomalies starting to surface around 105W, which will definitely have at least a short term cooling effect. Every CFS forecast shows warming until at least June, which will likely not verify at this point. IMO, something needs to happen pretty soon for the Nino to stick around into Hurricane Season, if not, the 3rd Nino bust in 3 years seems increasingly likely.

That CFS fcast shows that because of many old members that predicted a lot of warming due to the WWB. The newer members say that SSTAs should remain steady into June.

[NotSparta]

The El Niño is taking on a bit of a Modoki look - but it's more the signature of a decaying event, especially given the look of the subsurface.



However it may have some time left w/ the effects from the WWB; would stave off a transition to neutral, which is becoming increasingly likely (I have seen some guidance pointing towards a reemergence of El Niño near the end of the yr, though, but there is considerable disagreement).

[Kingarabian]

The El Niño is taking on a bit of a Modoki look - but it's more the signature of a decaying event, especially given the look of the subsurface.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b2965bdbce404848f306d7750aeb105283b4af8efbdadda2474441dbd3a7a37.png

However it may have some time left w/ the effects from the WWB; would stave off a transition to neutral, which is becoming increasingly likely (I have seen some guidance pointing towards a reemergence of El Niño near the end of the yr, though, but there is considerable disagreement).

Definitely a CPAC based El Nino now although Nino 1+2 needs to be near -1.0C for it to be a true Modoki. Based on the buoys, the WWB did trigger a downwelling Kelvin wave which is currently eroding the western periphery of the upwelling Kelvin wave, and I think there will be enough warmth there to keep Nino 4 and possibly Nino 3.4 @ weak Nino levels through June and likely July.
Nino 3 and 1+2 will likely be at warm Neutral or Neutral levels until something changes.

Important to see how the background state evolves through May and June. CFS shows El Nino forcing remaining through the length of its forecast and interestingly spread some -VP200 anomalies over the EPAC. This is important because it all ties into the Walker circulation. If a raising branch situates over the EPAC rather than the CPAC, it'll likely mean more sinking motion over areas in the Atlantic.

[NDG]

Today's update will show that Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C

[SoupBone]

Today's update will show that Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C

This is not my area of knowledge at all, but Nino 3.4 at +0.7C would indicate El Nino positive again? Is there a layman's reading on this?

[NDG]

Today's update will show that Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C

This is not my area of knowledge at all, but Nino 3.4 at +0.7C would indicate El Nino positive again? Is there a layman's reading on this?

As an average it has been a weak El Nino since it started in late Fall, if anything this shows that it continues to remain a central based EL Nino and not the traditional eastern based El Ninos which cause even more windshear fro the Atlantic Basin.

[Chris90]

Today's update will show that Nino 3.4 is back up to +0.7C
Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C

This is not my area of knowledge at all, but Nino 3.4 at +0.7C would indicate El Nino positive again? Is there a layman's reading on this?

+0.7C is in the weak Nino range, but they don't make calls based on week-to-week evolutions, you have to look at the trimonthlies, the average temp in the 3.4 region averaged over 3 months. So far this year it has been right around +0.8C, so we'll have to see what the average is with the MAM (March-April-May) update.
Here's the ranges
0.0-0.5C warm neutral
0.5-1.0C weak Nino
1.0-1.5C moderate Nino
1.5-2.0C strong Nino
2.0C+ super Nino

It goes the same way for La Nina, just with negative values instead.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1130517573102133249

[SFLcane]

Wow we have come a long way from a very slow season or should i say " normal " to a possibly above average season. Could see some seasonal outlooks busts

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1130517573102133249

Not so sure I'd call that La Niña - but it's uncommonly far west for El Niño. It's looking more like Modoki Niño to me, and I mean the kind w/ a La Niña like EPAC.

Essentially, this is a La Niña pattern shifted west enough that the warm WPAC waters show up near and east of the dateline

[Kingarabian]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1130517573102133249[url]

Not so sure I'd call that La Niña - but it's uncommonly far west for El Niño. It's looking more like Modoki Niño to me, and I mean the kind w/ a La Niña like EPAC.

Essentially, this is a La Niña pattern shifted west enough that the warm WPAC waters show up near and east of the dateline

Its continuing a pattern we've seen since last year September. These tweets create some sort of confusion, as the start of this current El Nino was during the fall while there was quite a bit of sinking motion over the WPAC (based on that Ventrice graphic).

[NotSparta]

[url]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1130517573102133249[url]

Not so sure I'd call that La Niña - but it's uncommonly far west for El Niño. It's looking more like Modoki Niño to me, and I mean the kind w/ a La Niña like EPAC.

Essentially, this is a La Niña pattern shifted west enough that the warm WPAC waters show up near and east of the dateline

Its continuing a pattern we've seen since last year September. These tweets create some sort of confusion, as the start of this current El Nino was during the fall while there was quite a bit of sinking motion over the WPAC (based on that Ventrice graphic).

Looks new to me - the standing wave was in a canonical position until January