ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11141 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:59 pm

NDG wrote:ENSO regions cooled down last week:

Nino 1+2 down to -1.0C
Nino 3 down to -0.1C
Nino 3.4 slightly down down to +0.4C
Nino 4 slightly down to +0.9C


GFS is starting to show the strong trade burst event that's sitting over the IO move east into the WPAC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11142 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 19, 2019 8:05 pm

This sudden cool to warm switch for ENSO reminds me of the warm to cool switch back in May. Very abrupt and probably not in most peoples forecasts.It's probably going to disturb winter weather patterns.

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There's still a chance that a strong trade wind burst makes it over the main Nino regions but it continues to be confined mainly over the IO.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11143 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:13 pm

Latest
Nino 4 +1.1C
Nino 3.4 +0.8C
Nino 3 +0.4C
Nino 1.2 -0.2C

I wonder if CPC is going to have to re-issue an El Nino watch. This was unexpected, considering Nino 3.4 briefly dipped into cold neutral territory last month.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11144 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 21, 2019 2:40 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:Latest
Nino 4 +1.1C
Nino 3.4 +0.8C
Nino 3 +0.4C
Nino 1.2 -0.2C

I wonder if CPC is going to have to re-issue an El Nino watch. This was unexpected, considering Nino 3.4 briefly dipped into cold neutral territory last month.

This is going to mess with ONI for sure. But unless there's a full fledged WWB, I doubt they will. There's also a pretty good chance that above average trades will soon return over the main Nino regions and that probably means all this warming may be paused.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11145 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:39 pm

Where did you get the info. on the 3.4@.8c. Tropical tidbits has it at .26
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/ :roll:
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11146 Postby StruThiO » Mon Oct 21, 2019 3:59 pm

HURRICANELONNY wrote:Where did you get the info.


Tidbits is superseded by CPC.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11147 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 26, 2019 4:40 pm

Buoys showing a possible upwelling Kelvin wave beginning to push east.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11148 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 28, 2019 7:16 am

Eastern ENSO regions have cooled down once again.

Code: Select all

               Nino1+2      Nino3         Nino3.4       Nino4
 Week          SST SSTA     SST SSTA      SST SSTA      SST SSTA
23OCT2019     19.7 -1.3     25.0 +0.1     27.3 +0.6     29.7 +1.0
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11149 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:05 am

A very volatile Nino 3.4 tells me that the ENSO state is still perfectly neutral.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11150 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:12 pm

Todays update has Nino 3.4 up to +0.7C.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11151 Postby StruThiO » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:15 pm

ONI for ASO is +0.1C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11152 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:25 pm

StruThiO wrote:ONI for ASO is +0.1C

Just based off ONI, ENSO is still warm neutral... Hanging by a thread.

Current 850mb wind forecast from the GFS is also abnormal. Strong westerlies over the WPAC and strong easterlies over the dateline and CPAC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11153 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:14 am

The up and down continues.

Nino 1+2 down to -0.6C
Nino 3 down to +0.3C
Nino 3+4 down to +0.5C
Nino 4 down to +07C
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11154 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Nov 13, 2019 6:41 pm

NDG wrote:The up and down continues.

Nino 1+2 down to -0.6C
Nino 3 down to +0.3C
Nino 3+4 down to +0.5C
Nino 4 down to +07C


Also a solid dateline/CPAC WWB seems to be on the way, continuing the seesawing:
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Re: ENSO: CPC November update: Neutral thru Spring 2020

#11155 Postby cycloneye » Thu Nov 14, 2019 9:08 am

Here is the November CPC update that has Neutral conditions thru the Spring of 2020.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 November 2019

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance).

Near-to-above average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were observed in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean during October [Fig. 1]. In the most recent week, the SST indices in the westernmost Niño-4 and Niño-3.4 regions were +0.7°C and +0.5°C, respectively, while farther east in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions they were near-to-below average (+0.3°C and -0.6°C respectively; [Fig. 2]). The subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) were above average during the month [Fig. 3] as a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that began in September continued progressing eastward into the eastern Pacific [Fig. 4]. Low-level winds were near average during October, while easterly upper-level wind anomalies were observed over the eastern Pacific. Finally, tropical convection was suppressed near the Date Line and also over Indonesia, while somewhat enhanced convection prevailed over the western Pacific, northeast of Papua New Guinea [Fig. 5]. Overall, despite the recent anomalous warming across the east-central equatorial Pacific, the overall oceanic and atmospheric system reflected ENSO-neutral.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Many dynamical forecast models, including the NCEP CFSv2, suggest Niño-3.4 SST index values will remain near +0.5°C during November before decreasing toward zero. Forecasters believe this recent warmth reflects sub-seasonal variability and is not indicative of an evolution toward El Niño. The chances for El Niño are predicted to be near 25% during the winter and spring. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2019-20 (~70% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (60 to 65% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11156 Postby cycloneye » Mon Nov 18, 2019 11:49 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11157 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 18, 2019 4:04 pm


Looks to be followed by a modest upwelling Kelvin wave as can be seen on the Pentad sub-surface and TAO buoy plots:

Image
Image

So I think the net result will remain warm neutral. There are some new warm anomalies beginning to pop up in the WPAC subsurface though.

Also if someone has the CPC's phone number and can get in touch with them to reverse there graphics back to the old format... would be nice.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11158 Postby NotSparta » Thu Nov 21, 2019 10:24 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

Looks to be followed by a modest upwelling Kelvin wave as can be seen on the Pentad sub-surface and TAO buoy plots:

https://i.imgur.com/mzOZ2ZX.png
https://i.imgur.com/gs4VAe8.png

So I think the net result will remain warm neutral. There are some new warm anomalies beginning to pop up in the WPAC subsurface though.

Also if someone has the CPC's phone number and can get in touch with them to reverse there graphics back to the old format... would be nice.



Yeah, the new format is terrible. I tried to see if I could make my own one with a non-terrible color scheme... nope. They only publish data when it's > 1 week old, days after it shows up on the site
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11159 Postby AJC3 » Fri Nov 22, 2019 6:23 am

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:[url]https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1196470036119949312[url]

Looks to be followed by a modest upwelling Kelvin wave as can be seen on the Pentad sub-surface and TAO buoy plots:

https://i.imgur.com/mzOZ2ZX.png
https://i.imgur.com/gs4VAe8.png

So I think the net result will remain warm neutral. There are some new warm anomalies beginning to pop up in the WPAC subsurface though.

Also if someone has the CPC's phone number and can get in touch with them to reverse there graphics back to the old format... would be nice.


viewtopic.php?f=31&t=92137&start=11080#p2755093

My post from this past summer has a link to submit comments. Many folks here already did, but, unfortunately, it didn't result in a reversion, or a change to something better.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11160 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 25, 2019 6:37 pm

Today's NINO SST update from the CPC:
Niño 4: 1.0ºC
Niño 3.4: 0.7ºC
Niño 3?: 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2:-0.1ºC
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