ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Yellow Evan]

You think its possible that the Nino peaks early? Say Oct? The mean of those models runs is very very impressive.

No, provided a new sub-surface pool emerges this fall.

But a new sub-surface pool has to form. Do they form every year?

Usually happens during El Niño.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There's actually another warm pool starting to form west but very close to the dateline, new Downwelling KW. Maybe the CFSv2 forecast panning out thanks to the Typhoon Craze from the WPac.

[Dean_175]

:uarrow: There's actually another warm pool starting to form west but very close to the dateline, new Downwelling KW. Maybe the CFSv2 forecast panning out thanks to the Typhoon Craze from the WPac.

Maybe, but I am becoming increasingly skeptical of the CFS/ECMWF forecast. Going to have to start warming very soon to verify the CFS and ECMWF's predictions that substantial warming of nino3.4 will begin in May. It is May 20th and we haven't seen any warming to speak of this month- maybe starting to even see some cooling.

[cycloneye]

2015 is more warmer as of May 20 when you compare it to 1997 and 2014.

[NDG]

About this time in '97 is when El Nino really started heating things up, lets see how things are 10-15 days from now, I bet '97 numbers will start surpassing this year's event by then.

[Dean_175]

:uarrow: About this time in '97 is when El Nino really started heating things up, lets see how things are 10-15 days from now, I bet '97 numbers will start surpassing this year's event by then.

Yeah I agree. One question though to anyone- 1997 and 2015 had similar subsurface conditions in April-May, and both years featured westerly wind anomalies near the dateline and some strong WWB events- yet 2015 stopped warming (as of yet) while 1997 started rapidly warming. Why?

[Ntxw]

Yeah I agree. One question though to anyone- 1997 and 2015 had similar subsurface conditions in April-May, and both years featured westerly wind anomalies near the dateline and some strong WWB events- yet 2015 stopped warming (as of yet) while 1997 started rapidly warming. Why?

This is a good question I'd like to know as well. Perhaps the southern ocean isn't participating as well? Doesn't look too different there though. Or maybe the Ocean climatology subset changed since 2010? The new set as a warmer base already so same temps would not equal same anomaly.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Regions will go back to warming as soon as the secondary pool grows. I think this is developing like 1982 and 1957, and VERY SIMILARLY to 1987, which means less rapid warming now on, but afterwards we get substantial warming up then resurgence to a strong/super Niño.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nice article from Bob Tisdale, talking about the Recent WWB over the WPAC

Https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2015/0 ... 6-el-nino/

[LarryWx]

Per Cowan, Niño 3.4 is down to +0.81, the lowest since mid April and down from the multiyear high at over +1.2. I'm assuming this is just a temporary cooling, especially considering how strongly negative has been the SOI in recent weeks:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 9m 9 minutes ago
GFS maxes out the scale with the westerly wind burst in the C/EPac -- so far east! #ElNino

[Ntxw]

Per Cowan, Niño 3.4 is down to +0.81, the lowest since mid April and down from the multiyear high at over +1.2. I'm assuming this is just a temporary cooling, especially considering how strongly negative has been the SOI in recent weeks:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png

I wouldn't trust the daily's at this point too much. I noticed this week the site had a weird down tick in all of the SST's not just the Pacific but for the Atlantic values as well. I wonder what happened there? NOAA's average doesn't show much of a change over the 5 day average

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/

[curtadams]

The model consensus forecast calls for basically continuous warming, so any cooling indicates it was overly bullish - which shouldn't be any surprise at all, as it's been *wildly* bullish 4 years in a row and it's been calling for the strongest Nino in history, which should make us suspicious in and of itself. With the west winds forecast, I'd favor a fairly strong Nino (not that I'm an expert) but honestly the forecast has been so off-base for so long I don't really consider it evidence of anything.

I saw a comparison of various El Nino episodes a few days back although I don't remember the link. This episode was most like 1986-7 with gradual warming and a fall start to a multiyear episode, but we're running behind. That peaked with trimonthlies of 1.6, so maybe we'll see a borderline strong episode come fall.

[cycloneye]

The Mid-May plume of models has a mean at peak of +1.6C but there is a spread.

[Ntxw]

The spread is high but all of them went higher than April. Of notice, even the typical bearish statistical models now average a moderate El Nino peaking at 1.2C compared to their previous idea of 0.9C in weak. The dynamical average is 1.8C or strong. The average of both is around 1.5C or moderate/strong borderline. So there is spread but the as mentioned they all went up.

[WALL-E]

Do we consider this as a WWB? it's rare to see such thing so early on the eastern pacific.

And also if you guys check the upper level wind, you'll see it's almost all easterly wind over the low latitude of eastern pacific, which is westerly wind usually.
I'm wondering if this is the atmosphere responding with the ocean?

[Kingarabian]

Do we consider this as a WWB? it's rare to see such thing so early on the eastern pacific.

And also if you guys check the upper level wind, you'll see it's almost all easterly wind over the low latitude of eastern pacific, which is westerly wind usually.
I'm wondering if this is the atmosphere responding with the ocean?

So what are the mb's for Easterlies and Westerlies? Can someone explain that to me?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

If I can recall before, a WWB is now approaching the central Pacific, which is likely to be associated with enhanced convection. And IIRC, WWBs rarely ever form (if ever) over the MDR of the EPac.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And I think there's something wrong now with the SST data used by TropicalTidbits, ESRL and OISST, which show a breakage (or split) between the warm anomalies from the CPac and ePac (part of Niño 3.4) and rapid cooling in that particular region. Meanwhile the TAO, and the rest don't show that and instead show the 1.5C and 2.0 anomalies spreading west. It's somewhat opposite of the rapid warming June last year

[Ntxw]

And I think there's something wrong now with the SST data used by TropicalTidbits, ESRL and OISST, which show a breakage (or split) between the warm anomalies from the CPac and ePac (part of Niño 3.4) and rapid cooling in that particular region. Meanwhile the TAO, and the rest don't show that and instead show the 1.5C and 2.0 anomalies spreading west. It's somewhat opposite of the rapid warming June last year

We'll find out on Tuesday. Monday is a national holiday so the update will be delayed.