ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The anomalies may be weakening but they are expanding and increasing in depth over the past week. Looks like another Downwelling KW occurring

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow, looks like this forecast from August of last year is turning out right.

Some models has this el nino lasting until summer of next year...

What is the possibility this develops later this year and last until December 2015?

I am thinking that a weak el nino might develop and last until next year where it grows into moderate nino by June and a strong nino by late 2015...This should totally hamper any development in the atlantic but hyperdrives the pacific...Again, just my opinion...

[Ntxw]

It is becoming a traditional (canonical) El Nino. Westerly winds are east of the dateline now, which occurs in canonical events, and Nino 1+2 and 3 are warming rapidly. Whatever cooling at 3.4 (if there even is one officially) is not sustainable.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Indeed Ntxw, some warm anomalies coming back over eastern regions and westerlies

[Yellow Evan]

I agree it's extraordinary what is going on out there. The current warm pool will easily carry El Nino threshold for at least 2 months through early and mid summer. It's enough for us to get to moderate levels for El Nino during that time. WWB's will help but what we have to wait for to get a super El Nino comes the second half. ENSO goes through two transitional phases, first is the spring second is the fall followed by their peak in late fall and winter. Between these two transitions is when we see vulnerability, we've overcome the spring barrier quite easily. 2012 saw the first half go well then could not survive the second half come Aug/Sept. 1997 exploded in the fall after the transition from summer to fall from moderate-strong to super. If we can get moderate established by early summer we'll get tremendous feedback to really sustain it through the transition period.

June 1997 we had a full fledged moderate El Nino



August the pool waned due to the transition of the seasons



By October it exploded into a Super El Nino with resurgence



1982 behaved much the same in a lesser state. 2009 was our most recent El Nino and strongest since 2000. Based on the the warm pool size and evolution I think it's probable we will topple that one as it was not as deep, large, or as warm.

You noted a lot last year in posts like the above about how ENSO could explode if it reached moderate/strong status by Juneish and if a new subsurface pool formed.

[Ntxw]

You noted a lot last year in posts like the above about how ENSO could explode if it reached moderate/strong status by Juneish and if a new subsurface pool formed.

Yeah, however last year in June the sub-surface didn't get replenished, we do this year though! Lets wait and see what happens. It's easier to go higher when you start higher. In 1997 by June westerlies were well in control east of the dateline

[xtyphooncyclonex]

And now, the SOI is tanking like crazy, something May last year never had

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone know the record for lowest SOI?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Wow.

@EricBlake12
May 97 vs 2015-- westerly wind forcing notable stronger this year. June 1997 was really the kicker that year #ElNino



‏@EricBlake12
Second oceanic Kelvin wave taking shape-- extrapolation says ~early July for impact on western S America. #ElNino

[euro6208]

Wow, looks like this forecast from August of last year is turning out right.

Some models has this el nino lasting until summer of next year...

What is the possibility this develops later this year and last until December 2015?

I am thinking that a weak el nino might develop and last until next year where it grows into moderate nino by June and a strong nino by late 2015...This should totally hamper any development in the atlantic but hyperdrives the pacific...Again, just my opinion...

[Kingarabian]

Anyone know the record for lowest SOI?

I remember in 2009 that the SOI was -20 ish if I recall correctly.

[Yellow Evan]

Anyone know the record for lowest SOI?

I remember in 2009 that the SOI was -20 ish if I recall correctly.

IIRC 1982-83 has the lowest SOI, but I can't remember how long it got.

[Ntxw]

Anyone know the record for lowest SOI?

I remember in 2009 that the SOI was -20 ish if I recall correctly.

IIRC 1982-83 has the lowest SOI, but I can't remember how long it got.

Here is the monthly SOI archives from BOM that goes way back. 1982 is definitely the biggest/longest -SOI period in modern times. I noticed 1896 and 1905 had a couple of months in the -40s that was higher than 1982 though not the duration. Not sure how reliable it is way back then. So yeah 1997 was a very strong oceanic event but in terms of atmospheric strength 1982 had probably more severe global weather impacts, arguably.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/soihtm1.shtml

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Maybe 1.1C for this week

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Cebu province under state of Calamity due to the effects of the current El Niño and drought. This event caused at least PHP1 billion in damages in the southern Philippines alone. Dams here are approaching or just shy of their respective critical levels and which are essential for supplying power and water over the approaching areas. I wonder how much more this El Niño will unleash its effects here in the Philippines and SE Asia at its peak

[Ntxw]

Looks like it rose to 1.1C this week so some of the daily maps were not correct. No official update today though due to holiday, will be tomorrow.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Niño regions this week show a moderate El Niño in place, similar to 1997

Niño 4=+1.1C
Niño 3.4=+1.1C
Niño 3=+1.2C
Niño 1+2=+2.6C

[Ntxw]

Niño regions this week show a moderate El Niño in place, similar to 1997

Niño 4=+1.1C
Niño 3.4=+1.1C
Niño 3=+1.2C
Niño 1+2=+2.6C

Believe it or not the 1.1C is higher than 1997 on this date which had a reading of 0.8C back then. Nino 1+2 matches the same 2.6C reading that year. 1997 achieves 1.1C for the June 4th update. A moderate El Nino at the very least is now pretty much a promise. A strong Nino probability I'd say is quite likely. Which means weather patterns that have been occurring will intensify, drought over the Caribbean and Maritime continent and flooding rains persistent across southern China and the southern US.

[tolakram]

Impressive warmup, really fun watching how this one develops. It's unfortunate it means so much pain for people in the Philippines and surrounding areas.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Crazy WWB



Meanwhile here's 2014



1997