ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[WALL-E]

Could you please tell me the link where you get the WWB forecast from?

Can see it here on Mike Ventrice's page : http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/hovmollers.html


Look for time longitude plot for 5N-5S of 850mb zonal wind (anomaly or totals).

Thank you.

I'm very curious about the up coming WWB, it's crucial for further boasting a super nino.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Could we see our first 1.5C reading on Monday??

[Dean_175]

GFS looks to be decreasing its forecast strength of the WWB.

Ntxw- what is your take on that?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

30 kt WWB going on now WOW



GFS showing a low-tracking monster typhoon over the WPAC too

[euro6208]

:uarrow: 30 kt WWB going on now WOW



GFS showing a low-tracking monster typhoon over the WPAC too

862 mb as a matter of fact!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

862? Holy Moly.

[Ntxw]

GFS looks to be decreasing its forecast strength of the WWB.

Ntxw- what is your take on that?

Actually the GFS is strengthening it, maxing out the scale on anomalies. This has been the case for the other WWBs, this is a major WWB similar to March and May

There needs to be serious consideration that we may have a potential super Nino >2c in the making.

[LarryWx]

Per the 0Z 6/22 Euro, there look to be more strongly -SOI days over the next few with a bottom ~6/25-6 in the high -30's to low -40's before a rise back to near the -15 to -10 range 6/30. Based on these projections, my first rough estimate for the June SOI as a whole is for -7 to -9, which would be quite a comeback into negative territory after having been +5 MTD as late as 6/15. Regarding how this June would compare to past either 2nd year Nino's that were strong to superstrong or standalone superstrong going back to 1877-8 (nine years in the sample..see list above), this would be in range but near the lowest magnitude of negative for June, which was -7.0 in 6/1877. The average for the sample of nine is -18. It will be interesting to see how July gets going. It looks to start pretty negative with perhaps -10's on 7/2.

The -SOI daily low peak for this drop was almost definitely today as tomorrow's should rise into the lower -40's and possibly up to the high -30's. It will mostly rise between now and 7/6, when it could be a small positive though it should still be negative come 6/30. (maybe near -15?)

Kudos to the Euro model for doing well in forecasting the SOI all of this month.

My current projection for June as a whole is for between -9 and -10, which represents quite an abrupt turnaround from the MTD of +5 as of 6/15. Also, compare this -9 to-10 to these strong El Nino June analogs:

1997: -24.3
1987: -17.9
1982: -17.2
1972: -10.9
1940: -17.2
1905: -27.7
1896: -27.0
1888: -14.4
1877: -7.0


So, it will end up similar to 1877 and 1972.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for the SOI updates Larry. Seeming the noisy SOI this month had little effect on the Nino as it continued to warm from the beginning of the month to the end despite the uptick, but quick turnaround now as you said.

Here is the raw wind totals, not anomalies. Big WWB

[euro6208]

Last 7 days and it's plummeting alright

[Ntxw]

Westerly wind burst forecasts continues to get stronger as the initiation has already occured. This is very impressive, huge oceanic kelvin wave will push another mass of warm waters below. CFSv2 is "hinting" at possible another WWB in August/Sept. You have to believe it folks, we may be watching a Super El Nino unfold. This is not your every day El Nino, classic traditional El Nino with readings that are not often seen this time of year.

[tstorm98]

The The Equatorial Pacific is on fire!

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino34.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... obal_1.png

[WALL-E]

Westerly wind burst forecasts continues to get stronger as the initiation has already occured. This is very impressive, huge oceanic kelvin wave will push another mass of warm waters below. CFSv2 is "hinting" at possible another WWB in August/Sept. You have to believe it folks, we may be watching a Super El Nino unfold. This is not your every day El Nino, classic traditional El Nino with readings that are not often seen this time of year.

That one looks stunning. It's going to boast a monster K wave.

[Ntxw]

Steady at 1.4C this week

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC 6/29/15 update that has Nino 3.4 at +1.4C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[weatherdude1108]

With a strong Nino forecast, I am thinking major (potentially serious) mudslides this coming Fall/Winter in California, especially where the vulnerable burn areas have been. Have some relatives out there.

Drought to deluge.

[CaliforniaResident]

What is the time frame between a strong WWB and the actual warming of the 3.4 region?
I'm guessing about two months? So we should see another rapid uptick of this region around late August or early September? Could the 3.4 hit the elusive 3.0 C mark around labor day or shortly after?

[Ntxw]

What is the time frame between a strong WWB and the actual warming of the 3.4 region?
I'm guessing about two months? So we should see another rapid uptick of this region around late August or early September? Could the 3.4 hit the elusive 3.0 C mark around labor day or shortly after?

This new massive WWB, may even be strongest this year, will keep pushing and warm things for the next 2 months. May see 2C by fall. 3C is such an extreme event though I doubt that will happen.

I wish we had more data on the 1982 Nino, it probably had some powerful WWB late summer and early fall that snuck up on everybody from weak Nino to rapid super Nino.

[Dean_175]

Ntxw- how much of an delay do you think there will be between the WWB and the beginning of its influence on nino3.4 temps?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw- how much of an delay do you think there will be between the WWB and the beginning of its influence on nino3.4 temps?

I'm not sure, I don't have too much experience with WWB and their direct influences on timing of ENSO. I think it's all depends on the surface winds in the eastern basin which is favorable for warming. Even though today's reading held steady from the CPC we can see warming occurring overspreading from Nino 3. The next reading should rise. The key I think is eventually to have the whole (actual SST's) warm mass to push all the way east where it is warmer over the eastern Pacific than western Pacific below.

Here is the look from 1997 at it's peak