ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Jim Cantore]

actually 1969 was a weak el nino year with the 3 month average for the April-June period +0.6C anomality

then for the next 3 sessions it was an average of 0.4C anomality

then the August-October period it reached el nino levels again

only 3 sessions in 1969 had levels of below el nino intensity but was only by about 0.1C

You're right.

I think Camille did occur during the neutral window though.

[wxmann_91]

So how many of you think there is "considerable uncertainty" for the time period after May, 2007? To put it another way, now that we are LEAVING an El Nino, what are the odds that El Nino conditions would return by July or August? I think it is interesting that we were in a La Nina this time last year and we went right in to a healthy El Nino in just a few months. Now, we are leaving El Nino, quite rapidly, and heading towards neutral conditions. Has there ever been a case when we left El Nino and then went right back to El Nino within the same calendar year? If not, then one could reasonably assume there is almost no chance of an El Nino being in place during THIS hurricane season.

I just wonder what the considerable uncertainty is all about.....

Yeah, I think a Nina's in the works for later this year. However, there has been a case where a strong Nino has weakened to neutral, and then rose back to strong Nino, all within one year. Not the same calender year but within one year.

92-93

Data starts from Dec-Jan 1992, ends at Nov-Dec 1993, left to right and then down.

MEI data. >0.5 is weak Nino, >1 is mdt, >1.5 is strong

1.714 1.849 2.004 2.248 2.107 1.798 1.025 0.605 0.485 0.591 0.518 0.619
0.638 0.926 0.954 1.377 1.98 1.57 1.136 1.064 1.022 1.051 0.835 0.601

[meteorologyman]

I have been paying very close attention to SST's and I have notice every day or two that somwhere in the Atlantic that temperature rised 1 to 2 degrees F.

I have been saving all the data under Microsoft word and have not been able to post it yet b/c I can't figure out how.

I have also been collecting data off of wind and pressure under word, and agian o cant figure out how to post it.

[meteorologyman]

If you have any suggestion on how to post Microsoft word into here, it will greatly be appreciated

[TheRingo]

If you have any suggestion on how to post Microsoft word into here, it will greatly be appreciated

You can upload the file here:

http://www.drivehq.com/express/ShareExpress.aspx

then post the link.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Yeah, I think a Nina's in the works for later this year. However, there has been a case where a strong Nino has weakened to neutral, and then rose back to strong Nino, all within one year. Not the same calender year but within one year.

92-93

Data starts from Dec-Jan 1992, ends at Nov-Dec 1993, left to right and then down.

MEI data. >0.5 is weak Nino, >1 is mdt, >1.5 is strong

1.714 1.849 2.004 2.248 2.107 1.798 1.025 0.605 0.485 0.591 0.518 0.619
0.638 0.926 0.954 1.377 1.98 1.57 1.136 1.064 1.022 1.051 0.835 0.601

Dear Wxman

It is interesting to point that according to MEI values this now dead El Niño reached the strong threshold (Klaus defined the episode as strong in his NOAA webpage late last year), but as we know the episode barely reached the moderate status.

[AussieMark]

the highest 3 month average from this episode was a +1.1C anomality

this is what BOM criteria is in regards to SSTS

+0.8 to +1.1°C: weak
+1.1 to +1.5°C: moderate
+1.5 to +2.2°C: strong
above +2.2°C: very strong

so if u look at SSTS alone it was borderline Weak/Moderate

[wxmann_91]

Yeah, I think a Nina's in the works for later this year. However, there has been a case where a strong Nino has weakened to neutral, and then rose back to strong Nino, all within one year. Not the same calender year but within one year.

92-93

Data starts from Dec-Jan 1992, ends at Nov-Dec 1993, left to right and then down.

MEI data. >0.5 is weak Nino, >1 is mdt, >1.5 is strong

1.714 1.849 2.004 2.248 2.107 1.798 1.025 0.605 0.485 0.591 0.518 0.619
0.638 0.926 0.954 1.377 1.98 1.57 1.136 1.064 1.022 1.051 0.835 0.601

Dear Wxman

It is interesting to point that according to MEI values this now dead El Niño reached the strong threshold (Klaus defined the episode as strong in his NOAA webpage late last year), but as we know the episode barely reached the moderate status.

Wait...Did you say that Mr. Wolter declared the Nino strong? I really doubt it, considering the bimonthly MEI values peaked around 1.3.

I have been paying very close attention to SST's and I have notice every day or two that somwhere in the Atlantic that temperature rised 1 to 2 degrees F.

I have been saving all the data under Microsoft word and have not been able to post it yet b/c I can't figure out how.

I have also been collecting data off of wind and pressure under word, and agian o cant figure out how to post it.

A La Nina (more specifically -PDO) correlates to higher SST's in the Atlantic.

If you want to upload the data, go to Fileden.
http://www.fileden.com/

[MetSul Weather Center]

Yes, Mr. Wolter said last December in his monthly post that the MEI value was in the El Niño strong threshold:

"In the context of continued growth of the current El Nino event, this section is now comparing current conditions against the seven biggest historic events since 1950. The most recent MEI value has increased to +1.29 standard deviations, bigger than any seasonal value of the earlier analog cases (1951-2, 1963-4, 1976-7, and 2002-3). Its rank has also moved up to 53rd highest out of 57 (5th highest for all October-November values). This is the highest ranked value since April-May 1998 (!), and solidly above the strong El Nino threshold for this season. Compared to the seven historic El Nino's, the current event has made up for a delayed start (by about one to two months) by continuing to grow well into the boreal fall season. Since July-August, it has grown by more than half a standard deviation, outpacing all historic events but 1982-3 for this time period (see numerical values of the MEI timeseries).

Positive SST anomalies are now found along the Equator from just west of the dateline to the South American coast in the latest weekly SST map. It is worth noting that (1) the North Atlantic is anomalously warm (positive AMO), and that (2) eastern equatorial SST anomalies are just about the warmest they have been since the 1997-98 event, leaving no doubt that the Peruvian coast is indeed experiencing El Nino conditions in the original sense of the term. "

[AussieMark]

well thats just plain wrong then.

I mean 2002/03 event was way stronger than the 2006/07 event

[MetSul Weather Center]

well thats just plain wrong then.

I mean 2002/03 event was way stronger than the 2006/07 event

True, it was stronger.

[Jim Hughes]

well thats just plain wrong then.

I mean 2002/03 event was way stronger than the 2006/07 event

Why because of the SST's? I am not arguing about whether this past event was stronger than the 02-03 event and do not think that I am. But this type of thinking is what got everybody in trouble last season.

Something is obviously lacking by using the SST readings alone. I can not say if the MEI, or the 90 day SOI average is better but they deserve more respect than what you might be giving them.

[MetSul Weather Center]

I agree Jim. All these indicators (SOI, SST, MEI) must be considered, but the 2002/2003 episode was stronger.

[P.K.]

Using the Nino 3, 3.4, 4, 90 day SOI, and MEI 2002/2003 was stronger in all cases apart from the MEI. This is shown well in some graphs I posted elsewhere a couple of weeks ago.

[Ptarmigan]

Got some questions. Are there any other climate factors that affect hurricanes besides ENSO, MEI, PDO, NAO/AO, and AMO? Also, I have seen MEI going back to 1950. Any MEI data going before 1950?

[AussieMark]

well thats just plain wrong then.

I mean 2002/03 event was way stronger than the 2006/07 event

Why because of the SST's? I am not arguing about whether this past event was stronger than the 02-03 event and do not think that I am. But this type of thinking is what got everybody in trouble last season.

Something is obviously lacking by using the SST readings alone. I can not say if the MEI, or the 90 day SOI average is better but they deserve more respect than what you might be giving them.

I was basing it on SOI, SSTS

and impacts globally were also more severe'

also I was disagreeing with Mr. Wolter saying it was strong when I said thats plain wrong

sorry for bad wording

and then when he said

This is the highest ranked value since April-May 1998 (!), and solidly above the strong El Nino threshold for this season

I was thinking that 2002/03 event was stronger than the 2006/07 event thus making me question this thats all.

Sorry if I came across as disrespectful

[chris_fit]

Has anyone noticed This?
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#current

Click on DEPTH anomolies. Looks like COOL ANOMALIES progressing eastward and upward. Could this be a sign of the development of La Nina later this year?

[AussieMark]

Check out the subsurface. Dated February 12 (AUS time)

[chris_fit]

Yea that could be some trouble this hurricane season....

[cycloneye]

The cooling of the pacific waters continues as shown at the latest data graphic.

Link