ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[TheStormExpert]

Good chance it’s going to be neutral in August

Even if it is Neutral wouldn’t it take awhile for the atmosphere to respond and catch-up?

[CyclonicFury]

Good chance it’s going to be neutral in August

Even if it is Neutral wouldn’t it take awhile for the atmosphere to respond and catch-up?

Well, yeah, there will likely be some lingering Niño effects even if it dissipates but the Niño is not very strong so it probably won't be enough to shut down the Atlantic.

[GeneratorPower]

Read this report from end of 2005 and note the progression of ENSO during 2005.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/enso/200513

[TheStormExpert]

Pray that this doesn’t pull a 2005 and go cool-Neutral or else watch out for an active season in the Atlantic!

[Kingarabian]

This is what we needed to have seen through the end of March and through the beginning of April to see a repeat of 2005:

See how many times the MJO traversed the Indian ocean and the Maritime Continent?

Instead the MJO has been stuck in the WPAC on those filtered 200VP anomalies hovmollers and stuck in the null phase on RMM.

This is where we're @ in 2019 so far based on RMM:


With a much more coherent +ENSO signal than in 2005, it's going to take a few MJO trips to the IO and MC before we see any REAL changes. Furthermore, if the Euro and CFS verify, there's nothing much to suggest El Nino forcing is coming to an end by August.

[NotSparta]

Look at the RMM plots for the GFS and Euro and CFS. GFS is the most bullish one so far.
GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/sFoC6wy.png
Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/pAYVQKU.png
CFS:
https://i.imgur.com/vnhcGxz.png

Gonna take a bit more than this to kill the El Nino. Because even if the MJO follows the GFS, and goes into the MC and triggers a large scale trade burst, there's still enough warmth at the subsurface for the El Nino to survive, and then it'll still move into the Pacific with at least some decent amplitude -- triggering another WWB. And then if it does what it did in late March and follows the current Euro and CFS forecasts, where it went from the IO back to the null phase, then the status quo remains the same.

Definitely going to be a big hit though, the IO MJO pulse is going to outdo the ENSO standing wave, and temporarily make it nearly indiscernible. Luckily for El Niño the pulse swings by the dateline, but still.

Sure there is enough subsfc warmth, but it's already falling - the EWB won't help & April is a transitional month for ENSO. Also, the EWB is coming at the perfect time for subsfc cooling as an upwelling KW has begun to propagate eastward. The EWB will add fuel to the fire.

The pulse is a bit of a paradox though - the stronger the pulse is the more it'll hurt El Niño due to trade activity, but that means a coherent structure may persist until the WP, where it would trigger +ENSO forcing.

I agree it'll take a lot to actually kill the El Niño though, but it'd be wise not to quite discount it yet

[Kingarabian]

Look at the RMM plots for the GFS and Euro and CFS. GFS is the most bullish one so far.
GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/sFoC6wy.png
Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/pAYVQKU.png
CFS:
https://i.imgur.com/vnhcGxz.png

Gonna take a bit more than this to kill the El Nino. Because even if the MJO follows the GFS, and goes into the MC and triggers a large scale trade burst, there's still enough warmth at the subsurface for the El Nino to survive, and then it'll still move into the Pacific with at least some decent amplitude -- triggering another WWB. And then if it does what it did in late March and follows the current Euro and CFS forecasts, where it went from the IO back to the null phase, then the status quo remains the same.

Definitely going to be a big hit though, the IO MJO pulse is going to outdo the ENSO standing wave, and temporarily make it nearly indiscernible. Luckily for El Niño the pulse swings by the dateline, but still.

Sure there is enough subsfc warmth, but it's already falling - the EWB won't help & April is a transitional month for ENSO. Also, the EWB is coming at the perfect time for subsfc cooling as an upwelling KW has begun to propagate eastward. The EWB will add fuel to the fire.

The pulse is a bit of a paradox though - the stronger the pulse is the more it'll hurt El Niño due to trade activity, but that means a coherent structure may persist until the WP, where it would trigger +ENSO forcing.

I agree it'll take a lot to actually kill the El Niño though, but it'd be wise not to quite discount it yet

Couple of things. While the MJO pulse is going to be noticeable over the IO, the Euro and CFS have it just as strong and widespread over the entire Pacific ocean. The GFS is the only model that is bull whipping the MJO from the IO to the MC.

We've seen a similar situation (big pulse over the IO) back in February when the subsurface anomalies were near the current levels:

Only for there to be a huge WWB over the dateline.


So it's pretty much similar to what happened in 2017,the first nine months of 2018, and also to some extent in 2014. We would see successive WWB's only for the atmosphere to remain in La Nina/Neutral. So there is a chance as always, but It'll be tough unless what happened in 2005 happens again.

[stormlover2013]

We have 3 months before July, plenty of time..

[NotSparta]

Look at the RMM plots for the GFS and Euro and CFS. GFS is the most bullish one so far.
GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/sFoC6wy.png
Euro:
https://i.imgur.com/pAYVQKU.png
CFS:
https://i.imgur.com/vnhcGxz.png

Gonna take a bit more than this to kill the El Nino. Because even if the MJO follows the GFS, and goes into the MC and triggers a large scale trade burst, there's still enough warmth at the subsurface for the El Nino to survive, and then it'll still move into the Pacific with at least some decent amplitude -- triggering another WWB. And then if it does what it did in late March and follows the current Euro and CFS forecasts, where it went from the IO back to the null phase, then the status quo remains the same.

Definitely going to be a big hit though, the IO MJO pulse is going to outdo the ENSO standing wave, and temporarily make it nearly indiscernible. Luckily for El Niño the pulse swings by the dateline, but still.

Sure there is enough subsfc warmth, but it's already falling - the EWB won't help & April is a transitional month for ENSO. Also, the EWB is coming at the perfect time for subsfc cooling as an upwelling KW has begun to propagate eastward. The EWB will add fuel to the fire.

The pulse is a bit of a paradox though - the stronger the pulse is the more it'll hurt El Niño due to trade activity, but that means a coherent structure may persist until the WP, where it would trigger +ENSO forcing.

I agree it'll take a lot to actually kill the El Niño though, but it'd be wise not to quite discount it yet

Couple of things. While the MJO pulse is going to be noticeable over the IO, the Euro and CFS have it just as strong and widespread over the entire Pacific ocean. The GFS is the only model that is bull whipping the MJO from the IO to the MC.

We've seen a similar situation (big pulse over the IO) back in February when the subsurface anomalies were near the current levels:
https://i.imgur.com/rvo5twu.png
Only for there to be a huge WWB over the dateline.


So it's pretty much similar to what happened in 2017,the first nine months of 2018, and also to some extent in 2014. We would see successive WWB's only for the atmosphere to remain in La Nina/Neutral. So there is a chance as always, but It'll be tough unless what happened in 2005 happens again.

Good points. However, there are some differences. The first time was at the end of January. It sped across the IO, sticking around in the WP. This did indeed lead to a major WWB on the dateline which lead to a revitalization of the El Niño as well as a pop in the subsfc anomalies. The MJO then moved away, and did the same thing a month later, but differently.

It appears that the March MJO pulse stopped further west. What came out was quite a strange situation. There was a WWB, which stayed around the weak side, west of the dateline. To the east, were persistent enhanced trades, going all the way to the equator. The consequence? El Niño didn't seem to have a major change on the surface, and the subsurface appeared to not notice either.

This round is also different from the last two. No break between WWBs as of late has had expansive easterly anomalies like what is about to begin. On your graphic, it looks like the MJO may propagate slower due to the slowing on the suppressed phase ahead of it. This will be a key thing to watch as there are now feedbacks beginning to show up. Lately, the far East Pacific has warmed, as well as the West Pacific, but the central Pacific SSTAs have fallen slightly. This has resulted in a more full basin look which makes it more difficult to focus the rising air over a small region. Anyway, the central Pacific cooling means the MJO is less attracted (& a weaker Niño base state). The EWB will exacerbate this, as it will likely continue to cool off the Central Pacific. So, the longer it takes for the MJO to come to the Pacific, the longer the trades stay, which means the MJO is less attracted, beginning a feedback loop (opposite is true).

As I said this is a different situation. Last time the MJO found itself in the IO a WWB was beginning, but now the opposite is true (ENSO transition attempt?). Looks like the trend of MJO will be quite important, as a borderline Niño in April is quite uncertain.

[Kingarabian]

Definitely going to be a big hit though, the IO MJO pulse is going to outdo the ENSO standing wave, and temporarily make it nearly indiscernible. Luckily for El Niño the pulse swings by the dateline, but still.

Sure there is enough subsfc warmth, but it's already falling - the EWB won't help & April is a transitional month for ENSO. Also, the EWB is coming at the perfect time for subsfc cooling as an upwelling KW has begun to propagate eastward. The EWB will add fuel to the fire.

The pulse is a bit of a paradox though - the stronger the pulse is the more it'll hurt El Niño due to trade activity, but that means a coherent structure may persist until the WP, where it would trigger +ENSO forcing.

I agree it'll take a lot to actually kill the El Niño though, but it'd be wise not to quite discount it yet

Couple of things. While the MJO pulse is going to be noticeable over the IO, the Euro and CFS have it just as strong and widespread over the entire Pacific ocean. The GFS is the only model that is bull whipping the MJO from the IO to the MC.

We've seen a similar situation (big pulse over the IO) back in February when the subsurface anomalies were near the current levels:
https://i.imgur.com/rvo5twu.png
Only for there to be a huge WWB over the dateline.


So it's pretty much similar to what happened in 2017,the first nine months of 2018, and also to some extent in 2014. We would see successive WWB's only for the atmosphere to remain in La Nina/Neutral. So there is a chance as always, but It'll be tough unless what happened in 2005 happens again.

Good points. However, there are some differences. The first time was at the end of January. It sped across the IO, sticking around in the WP. This did indeed lead to a major WWB on the dateline which lead to a revitalization of the El Niño as well as a pop in the subsfc anomalies. The MJO then moved away, and did the same thing a month later, but differently.

It appears that the March MJO pulse stopped further west. What came out was quite a strange situation. There was a WWB, which stayed around the weak side, west of the dateline. To the east, were persistent enhanced trades, going all the way to the equator. The consequence? El Niño didn't seem to have a major change on the surface, and the subsurface appeared to not notice either.

This round is also different from the last two. No break between WWBs as of late has had expansive easterly anomalies like what is about to begin. On your graphic, it looks like the MJO may propagate slower due to the slowing on the suppressed phase ahead of it. This will be a key thing to watch as there are now feedbacks beginning to show up. Lately, the far East Pacific has warmed, as well as the West Pacific, but the central Pacific SSTAs have fallen slightly. This has resulted in a more full basin look which makes it more difficult to focus the rising air over a small region. Anyway, the central Pacific cooling means the MJO is less attracted (& a weaker Niño base state). The EWB will exacerbate this, as it will likely continue to cool off the Central Pacific. So, the longer it takes for the MJO to come to the Pacific, the longer the trades stay, which means the MJO is less attracted, beginning a feedback loop (opposite is true).

As I said this is a different situation. Last time the MJO found itself in the IO a WWB was beginning, but now the opposite is true (ENSO transition attempt?). Looks like the trend of MJO will be quite important, as a borderline Niño in April is quite uncertain.

Pretty good analysis. I like your view on things. ENSO is pretty tough to figure out and we'll just have to wait and see if these trades verify and how much strong of a pulse the MJO will have when it enters the Pacific. At least there's some MJO activity to track.

Current pressure pattern supports below average easterlies in the meantime and in a week or two there is a possibility of a dateline WWB when the SOI tanks again.

[NotSparta]

Couple of things. While the MJO pulse is going to be noticeable over the IO, the Euro and CFS have it just as strong and widespread over the entire Pacific ocean. The GFS is the only model that is bull whipping the MJO from the IO to the MC.

We've seen a similar situation (big pulse over the IO) back in February when the subsurface anomalies were near the current levels:
https://i.imgur.com/rvo5twu.png
Only for there to be a huge WWB over the dateline.


So it's pretty much similar to what happened in 2017,the first nine months of 2018, and also to some extent in 2014. We would see successive WWB's only for the atmosphere to remain in La Nina/Neutral. So there is a chance as always, but It'll be tough unless what happened in 2005 happens again.

Good points. However, there are some differences. The first time was at the end of January. It sped across the IO, sticking around in the WP. This did indeed lead to a major WWB on the dateline which lead to a revitalization of the El Niño as well as a pop in the subsfc anomalies. The MJO then moved away, and did the same thing a month later, but differently.

It appears that the March MJO pulse stopped further west. What came out was quite a strange situation. There was a WWB, which stayed around the weak side, west of the dateline. To the east, were persistent enhanced trades, going all the way to the equator. The consequence? El Niño didn't seem to have a major change on the surface, and the subsurface appeared to not notice either.

This round is also different from the last two. No break between WWBs as of late has had expansive easterly anomalies like what is about to begin. On your graphic, it looks like the MJO may propagate slower due to the slowing on the suppressed phase ahead of it. This will be a key thing to watch as there are now feedbacks beginning to show up. Lately, the far East Pacific has warmed, as well as the West Pacific, but the central Pacific SSTAs have fallen slightly. This has resulted in a more full basin look which makes it more difficult to focus the rising air over a small region. Anyway, the central Pacific cooling means the MJO is less attracted (& a weaker Niño base state). The EWB will exacerbate this, as it will likely continue to cool off the Central Pacific. So, the longer it takes for the MJO to come to the Pacific, the longer the trades stay, which means the MJO is less attracted, beginning a feedback loop (opposite is true).

As I said this is a different situation. Last time the MJO found itself in the IO a WWB was beginning, but now the opposite is true (ENSO transition attempt?). Looks like the trend of MJO will be quite important, as a borderline Niño in April is quite uncertain.

Pretty good analysis. I like your view on things. ENSO is pretty tough to figure out and we'll just have to wait and see if these trades verify and how much strong of a pulse the MJO will have when it enters the Pacific. At least there's some MJO activity to track.

Current pressure pattern supports below average easterlies in the meantime and in a week or two there is a possibility of a dateline WWB when the SOI tanks again.

Well, the trades will almost surely verify given how close the forecast is (only a couple days out). Yes, likely there will be another WWB given El Niño base state. Looks like around 5-10th of May that begins

[cycloneye]

Niño 3.4 is down from +0.9C last Monday to +0.8C in this weeks update.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[CyclonicFury]

Strong trades look likely to continue over the Niño regions for the next 7-10 days as the MJO is in the IO. El Niño won’t be getting much support during this time.

After that time, though, it appears as if a WWB may begin over the eastern IO/WPAC. This is crucial for Niño evolution. At the moment there are no new downwelling kelvin waves, and a WWB could trigger one. Will need to watch for any SPAC/WPAC TC activity to see if this potential WWB gets a boost. There's also a chance this potential WWB could fizzle, especially if it does not get any support from TCs, because it's about 2-3 weeks out.

[NotSparta]

Strong trades look likely to continue over the Niño regions for the next 7-10 days as the MJO is in the IO. El Niño won’t be getting much support during this time.

After that time, though, it appears as if a WWB may begin over the eastern IO/WPAC. This is crucial for Niño evolution. At the moment there are no new downwelling kelvin waves, and a WWB could trigger one. Will need to watch for any SPAC/WPAC TC activity to see if this potential WWB gets a boost. There's also a chance this potential WWB could fizzle, especially if it does not get any support from TCs, because it's about 2-3 weeks out.
https://i.imgur.com/rSGEAIzl.jpg

Yes, El Niño has become much less certain lately (mostly due to the failure of the last WWB to generate downwelling KWs and warmer anomalies), and as we are headed into a seasonal transition period, the coming WWB could really make or break the event, imo

[CyclonicFury]

UKMET backing off its El Niño forecast.

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/1121097427367473154

[stormlover2013]

my meteorologist has been saying since December he felt El nino was being blown out of proportion.

[Kingarabian]

Strong trades look likely to continue over the Niño regions for the next 7-10 days as the MJO is in the IO. El Niño won’t be getting much support during this time.

After that time, though, it appears as if a WWB may begin over the eastern IO/WPAC. This is crucial for Niño evolution. At the moment there are no new downwelling kelvin waves, and a WWB could trigger one. Will need to watch for any SPAC/WPAC TC activity to see if this potential WWB gets a boost. There's also a chance this potential WWB could fizzle, especially if it does not get any support from TCs, because it's about 2-3 weeks out.
https://i.imgur.com/rSGEAIzl.jpg

It's interesting that there are no strong trades present on the buoys:


Also looking at RMM, the GFS continues to be the only model showing strong amplification over the MC compared to the Euro and CFS. Euro takes it back to the circle after 5-7 days and then tries to bring the MJO over the Pacific ocean in the long range. CFS doesn't even get to the MC and takes the MJO right back to the circle. The MJO needs to end up over the MC for there to be strong trades that hurt El Nino's.

[CyclonicFury]

Interesting conflict signals here as Paul Roundy noted. The overall atmospheric pattern looks like that of a young Niño event, but the subsurface looks like a decaying event.

[Kingarabian]

Interesting conflict signals here as Paul Roundy noted. The overall atmospheric pattern looks like that of a young Niño event, but the subsurface looks like a decaying event.

Yeah they're (Roundy/Ventrice)counting on a substantial WWB within 2 weeks that will generate a downwelling Kelvin wave by June and keep the El Nino going for hurricane season. I think that's what the CFS is reflecting.

It's also what I've said before. Really need repeated attempts by the MJO to amplify considerably over the MC to kill off the El Nino.

[NotSparta]

Strong trades look likely to continue over the Niño regions for the next 7-10 days as the MJO is in the IO. El Niño won’t be getting much support during this time.

After that time, though, it appears as if a WWB may begin over the eastern IO/WPAC. This is crucial for Niño evolution. At the moment there are no new downwelling kelvin waves, and a WWB could trigger one. Will need to watch for any SPAC/WPAC TC activity to see if this potential WWB gets a boost. There's also a chance this potential WWB could fizzle, especially if it does not get any support from TCs, because it's about 2-3 weeks out.
https://i.imgur.com/rSGEAIzl.jpg

It's interesting that there are no strong trades present on the buoys:
https://i.imgur.com/sCVFhxc.png

Also looking at RMM, the GFS continues to be the only model showing strong amplification over the MC compared to the Euro and CFS. Euro takes it back to the circle after 5-7 days and then tries to bring the MJO over the Pacific ocean in the long range. CFS doesn't even get to the MC and takes the MJO right back to the circle. The MJO needs to end up over the MC for there to be strong trades that hurt El Nino's.

I think the buoys don't show it because it is a five day mean ending yesterday, which means there weren't much enhanced trades except for near the dateline, where the buoys do show enhanced trades. And I'm not sure about that last part, because IO convection also causes destructive forcing for El Niños.