ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[weathaguyry]

Yeah it's been pretty crazy. As noted before, we should not be anywhere near a Nino if going by historical perspective. Big Nino events (2015)are typically followed by multiple Nina events, so statistically speaking this year should have tilted for a second Nina. But that didn't happen, even in the face of trade bursts. Something in the background is not following the normal mantra, it could be the PDO but we've seen 2nd year Ninas before even within a +PDO period.

Any chance that the PDO would flip negative any time soon? It's been positive for a very long time, and it can't last forever

[Ntxw]

Yeah it's been pretty crazy. As noted before, we should not be anywhere near a Nino if going by historical perspective. Big Nino events (2015)are typically followed by multiple Nina events, so statistically speaking this year should have tilted for a second Nina. But that didn't happen, even in the face of trade bursts. Something in the background is not following the normal mantra, it could be the PDO but we've seen 2nd year Ninas before even within a +PDO period.

Any chance that the PDO would flip negative any time soon? It's been positive for a very long time, and it can't last forever

It's very hard to predict, it could last a decade or less, or more. Back in 2011 and 2012 if you were to tell me we would embark in the longest unbroken +PDO on record, I would not have believed you given how deeply negative it was. Usually it will take a big ENSO event to really flip it. You can argue the monster Nino duration event of 2014-2015 really made the flip. If you were to see a big flip to -PDO and sustain you would likely see a big Nina or series of Ninas to get it rolling. Much like 1998-99 and 2007-08 did. And since there is no big Nina this year I doubt it will flip negative and stay there at least in the foreseeable future.

[weathaguyry]

Yeah it's been pretty crazy. As noted before, we should not be anywhere near a Nino if going by historical perspective. Big Nino events (2015)are typically followed by multiple Nina events, so statistically speaking this year should have tilted for a second Nina. But that didn't happen, even in the face of trade bursts. Something in the background is not following the normal mantra, it could be the PDO but we've seen 2nd year Ninas before even within a +PDO period.

Any chance that the PDO would flip negative any time soon? It's been positive for a very long time, and it can't last forever

It's very hard to predict, it could last a decade or less, or more. Back in 2011 and 2012 if you were to tell me we would embark in the longest unbroken +PDO on record, I would not have believed you given how deeply negative it was. Usually it will take a big ENSO event to really flip it. You can argue the monster Nino duration event of 2014-2015 really made the flip. If you were to see a big flip to -PDO and sustain you would likely see a big Nina or series of Ninas to get it rolling. Much like 1998-99 and 2007-08 did. And since there is no big Nina this year I doubt it will flip negative and stay there at least in the foreseeable future.

Gotcha. IF we do end up seeing another substantial Nino this winter, then it makes you wonder if we would get a big La Nina next year

[Ntxw]

Gotcha. IF we do end up seeing another substantial Nino this winter, then it makes you wonder if we would get a big La Nina next year

It's a long way to go. There are some really good papers about the ENSO-PDO relationship. But generally it is thought that ENSO is the driver for the PDO and then the PDO can be a residual effects when you lack a strong mechanism to change it (another strong ENSO event). And then when you have years like this one the wind stress not favoring one or the other it reverts to the background state of the last strong ENSO event via the PDO

[weathaguyry]

Gotcha. IF we do end up seeing another substantial Nino this winter, then it makes you wonder if we would get a big La Nina next year

It's a long way to go. There are some really good papers about the ENSO-PDO relationship. But generally it is thought that ENSO is the driver for the PDO and then the PDO can be a residual effects when you lack a strong mechanism to change it (another strong ENSO event). And then when you have years like this one the wind stress not favoring one or the other it reverts to the background state of the last strong ENSO event via the PDO

Thanks for the info, the whole entire ENSO process is very fascinating

[RL3AO]

EPS shows a very strong MJO near the MC. Correlates with those strong trades in the central Pacific. There are some big MJO model differences right now. It probably makes the next month or so a lot less predictable than usual.

[WAcyclone]

July UKMET ENSO forecast is out:

[Kingarabian]

The subsurface pool animation updated for July 7th but the frame is broken. Sigh.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/884882535053918208




No disrespect to Eric Webb, but criticizing El Nino forecasts while the ocean currently resembles one and is leaning towards one based on historical data, is baseless.

[weathaguyry]

So it appears that in about 5 days we have developed the strongest La Nina by far on record

[AutoPenalti]

So it appears that in about 5 days we have developed the strongest La Nina by far on record

What the...? How?

[weathaguyry]

So it appears that in about 5 days we have developed the strongest La Nina by far on record

What the...? How?

The system glitched

[NDG]

Nino 3.4 has continued to cool down this week, + 0.8 C area continues to shrink.

[Kingarabian]

Nino 3 is warmer though. I think this week comes in at +0.6C or +0.7C.



Actually holding pretty steady using this one. Decent amount of +1.25C anomalies embedded in a large area of 1.0C anomalies that is also embedded in a larger area of +0.5C

[LarryWx]

^ I still don't understand why the two maps above don't agree near that area that is shown at warmer than +1.0 in the 2nd map. Is anyone else confused? I have no idea which is closer to reality though with the weekly coming at only +0.6 I have to wonder if the 2nd one is too warm there.

[NDG]

^ I still don't understand why the two maps above don't agree near that area that is shown at warmer than +1.0 in the 2nd map. Is anyone else confused? I have no idea which is closer to reality though with the weekly coming at only +0.6 I have to wonder if the 2nd one is too warm there.

Great question, is the second one a daily reading? Versus the other one which is a 5 day average, even then it does not make sense.

Edit: never mind, I see that the second one is also a 5 day average.

[Ntxw]

I can't find much of a difference between the two except latitude markers are different. Maybe the temperature space is different because of that?

[SoupBone]

EPS shows a very strong MJO near the MC. Correlates with those strong trades in the central Pacific. There are some big MJO model differences right now. It probably makes the next month or so a lot less predictable than usual.

Layman's terms, give it to me straight doc. What does this mean for the Atlantic hurricane season, and even more specifically Cape Verde, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean development individually.

[RL3AO]

Layman's terms, give it to me straight doc. What does this mean for the Atlantic hurricane season, and even more specifically Cape Verde, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean development individually.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[NDG]

I can't find much of a difference between the two except latitude markers are different. Maybe the temperature space is different because of that?

There is a difference in the temperatures, the first map the temp isotherms are withing 0.2 deg C, while the second map the temp isotherms are every 0.5 deg C.
So first of all the second map is not so detailed on SSTs, so the first map would had shown the + 1.0 deg C SSTs that the second map is showing. One of those maps is not correct.