ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[GeneratorPower]

The ENSO state is pretty much a done deal for this hurricane season. We need to consider how ENSO will affect 2018.

[Kingarabian]

This week the SST reading over Nino 3.4 might stay the same near +0.5C even though there's a spot of +1.0C over it because of negative numbers coming into its eastern section, Nino 3 continues with a big cool down with -1.0C showing up north of the equator.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/8Dt1wGB.png[img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/YeGzR2X.png[img]

Funny how Nino 3 is the one cooling despite the trade burst being closer to 140W.

Will be interesting to see if there will be enough to get a +0.5C reading this up coming week.

[abajan]

What is this? It looks like a WWB in the far WPAC!

http://imgur.com/cU11zw3

CFSv2 predicts we could see a sustained WWB through early August, although there does appear to be some disagreement on that. Only time will tell how it will unfold.

http://imgur.com/VjW64xJ

Edited for formatting. Also, I know this sounds like a really stupid question, but how do you place images directly on your post without having to link them elsewhere like I did here?

Hi tornado. You used the wrong link from imgur. There is one labeled "direct link" that you need to use. That will work with the IMG tags.

Good catch! I failed to spot the missing .png at the end of each URL.

[Ntxw]

At the update today Nino 3.4 has nudged a little down again from last week to 0.4C, the coolest reading since the week centered on June 7th

[cycloneye]

Any El Nino intent to come again is being stopped by the trade winds.

@MJVentrice
Ongoing trade surge continues to look impressive over the central Pacific, with continuation into the 15 day forecast.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/889453703471788032

[NDG]

El Niño fail.
If that -1.0C spot over Nino 3 keeps moving west I would expect Niño 3.4 to continue cooling during this week.

[cycloneye]

Text of the CPC Weekly update of 7.24/17 that has Nino 3.4 down to +0.4C and Nino 1+2 down to -0.1C.

[dexterlabio]

I myself am ready to throw in the towel for a rare El Nino to appear this year. Although it's fascinating that there were signals of possible El Nino re-emergence following a super event 2 years ago. In fact, most of the previous El Nino years were followed by a string of La Nina/cold ENSO events. Climatology is against another El Nino swing, but it still almost happened anyway.

[Ntxw]

I myself am ready to throw in the towel for a rare El Nino to appear this year. Although it's fascinating that there were signals of possible El Nino re-emergence following a super event 2 years ago. In fact, most of the previous El Nino years were followed by a string of La Nina/cold ENSO events. Climatology is against another El Nino swing, but it still almost happened anyway.

Swing and a miss it seems may be. Historically speaking you are right it is tilted to La Ninas after super Ninos for a few years. It is still possible to get a very weak event but its becoming more and more delayed. Delays are often shortcomings.

[Kingarabian]

El Niño fail.
If that -1.0C spot over Nino 3 keeps moving west I would expect Niño 3.4 to continue cooling during this week.

A little too early for this proclamation as next week just needs to come in at +0.5C or maybe even +0.4C to get a 2nd straight tri monthly on the ONI.

[cycloneye]

The bottomline for the North Atlantic 2017 peak of season ASO is that ENSO being in Neutral wont be a negative factor for those three peak months.Even if a Weak El Nino comes by the end of July is too late as the lagging time comes to play.

[NDG]

El Niño fail.
If that -1.0C spot over Nino 3 keeps moving west I would expect Niño 3.4 to continue cooling during this week.

A little too early for this proclamation as next week just needs to come in at +0.5C or maybe even +0.4C to get a 2nd straight tri monthly on the ONI.

I doubt it will go back up to +0.5C next week. IMO.

[Ntxw]

The next trimonthly will still be 0.5C or so since it is a 3 month average. The next trimonthly after will more likely be effected if August cools

[Kingarabian]

The next trimonthly will still be 0.5C or so since it is a 3 month average. The next trimonthly after will more likely be effected if August cools

Yeah. Buys it a few more weeks to give the SOI a chance to flip negative. But it's treading a fine line here.

[Kingarabian]

If the GFS is right, we should have a nice CCKW moving across the CPac soon. It would bring relief for the Nino regions and promote warming. This is what happened in late spring when the repeated trade bursts were beginning to cool the Nino regions and a Kelvin wave helped offset.

[Alyono]

IGNORE THE GFS


It has the EPAC under sinking air and upper convergence now. Not physically possible given the hurricane activity we are seeing.

I wouldn't sue it for wave tracking at all. I'd trust that 3 equals 5 more than I would trust the GFS right now

[Hunabku]

Yup, further into the distance wanes our niño. Seems our *sea dragon* is beginning the process of breathing more of her heat into the deep ocean in the west pac side versus into the atmosphere in the east pac side. Over the next several months, it will be interesting to watch for changes in the west-side's reservoir of deeper oceanic heat.

[Kingarabian]

IGNORE THE GFS


It has the EPAC under sinking air and upper convergence now. Not physically possible given the hurricane activity we are seeing.

I wouldn't sue it for wave tracking at all. I'd trust that 3 equals 5 more than I would trust the GFS right now

I believe Euro 200mb zonal wind totals has a sinking Kelvin over the EPac. This same suppressed Kelvin will be entering the Atlantic soon. The Euro shows raising totals situated west of the dateline and over the pacific. Naturally you would expect progression east and into the CPac/EPac. I think this is the same CCKW that the CFS is hinting on reaching the Atlantic and promoting activity at the end of August.

[LarryWx]

Looking at the 12Z model consensus, I still do not yet see a clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June. This takes us well into the first week of August. That's even after taking into account that my model consensus based Tahiti SLP estimates have been coming in about 1 mb too high at Tahiti.

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the 12Z model consensus, I still do not yet see a clear indication of anything resembling the sustained solid -SOI streak of June. This takes us well into the first week of August. That's even after taking into account that my model consensus based Tahiti SLP estimates have been coming in about 1 mb too high at Tahiti.

The MJO is currently camped in that region.