ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Hunabku]

Keep in mind that in addition to delaying the onset of El Niño, trade surges also serve to help pile up more heat in key WWB areas. Although the current trade surges are kind of a little too far west, they still might be a double edged sword since future WWBs don't matter much if there's not enough heat for them to push westward.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/845618086137004032

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/845684827877752832

[Ntxw]

Down a bit to 0.2C. All areas saw a little cooling but nothing significant. Overall the onset of El Nino if there is to be one seems to be delayed for the time being as trades continues to blow over the equatorial Pacific with another trade burst possible early April. The odds of having El Nino during ASO the past month has decreased, in my opinion as trade winds continue.

[gatorcane]

Not a surprise El Nino appears to not be materializing. Seemed strange to get another El Nino on the heels of such a strong El Nino just two years ago. Still thinking Atlantic could be quite active this season with all of the latent heat buildup in the atmosphere from the 2015 El Nino not to mention the second year after El Nino is usually more active. I think you can still argue there were some residual El Nino effects across the Atlantic basin in 2016 (at least the first half) which we wouldn't expect this year being 2 years past the 2015 event.

[Ntxw]

Not a surprise El Nino appears to not be materializing. Seemed strange to get another El Nino on the heels of such a strong El Nino just two years ago. Still thinking Atlantic could be quite active this season with all of the latent heat buildup in the atmosphere from the 2015 El Nino not to mention the second year after El Nino is usually more active. I think you can still argue there were some residual El Nino effects across the Atlantic basin in 2016 (at least the first half) which we wouldn't expect this year being 2 years past the 2015 event.

Spring barrier and MJO can be noisy. Arrow is still pointing to El Nino vs another Nina all things considered. It will just take longer and lessen the possibility of a bigger event. Needless to say uncertainty is high.

[dexterlabio]

The signals look mixed, not to mention the spring barrier, but my only question for now is how an El Nino this year would be unprecedented? I notice most of the EN episodes for the past 2-3 decades followed La Nina's. I know we just came out of a super El Nino in 2015, but with the appearance of La Nina last year, another EN this year doesn't sound so unusual..

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Waters off the coast of SA in the pacific seemed to have cooled DRASTICALLY according to SST temps on tidbits website. This could effect our weather over the next few weeks.

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of Nino 3.4 is down to +0.2C and Nino 1+2 down to +2.2C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/847146424404000774

[Kingarabian]

Looking at the latest dailys, I think it's safe to say that the trade winds haven't done much to cool the Nino regions. Let's see how they do in April since more should be around the corner.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/847195104968413184

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/847482341404454912

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

K/W moving over the EQ.

[cycloneye]

Great new tool from Levi.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/848651299327549440

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Nino 3.4 creeping up to +0.3C.It was at +0.2C last week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hurricaneman]

There is a cold pool forming at the subsurface around 160w and that's one thing that needs to be watched as that could possibly stop an El Niño if it spreads and the trade winds continue

[WeatherEmperor]

There is a cold pool forming at the subsurface around 160w and that's one thing that needs to be watched as that could possibly stop an El Niño if it spreads and the trade winds continue

I was juuuust about to ask about this. I see that right at the surface the waters are getting to El Nino threshold...but the subsurface tells a very different story. Can some of you post some subsurface temp graphs? El Nino cannot get going unless it gets strong sub surface support, yes??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Ntxw]

There is a cold pool forming at the subsurface around 160w and that's one thing that needs to be watched as that could possibly stop an El Niño if it spreads and the trade winds continue

I was juuuust about to ask about this. I see that right at the surface the waters are getting to El Nino threshold...but the subsurface tells a very different story. Can some of you post some subsurface temp graphs? El Nino cannot get going unless it gets strong sub surface support, yes??


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

That's correct, without a foundation it is hard to impossible to get an El Nino. The stronger trades in March really took things backwards.

[weathaguyry]

That is for sure something to consider, if an el nino was going to form in time for the hurricane season, you would usually know by now, because the water would be starting boil up throughout the sub-surface. With the cold pool at 160W, I really can't see anything happening until at least September. The warm water is very shallow and all it would take is just a burst of wind in the other direction to stir up the water. But i'm not an expert on trade wind bursts and that sort of stuff...