ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12161 Postby Iceresistance » Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:34 am

This is a Double Dip La Nina (2020 was also another one), the only other analog years I can remember to feature that is 2010 & 2011
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12162 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:34 pm

Kingarabian what do you expect from this La Niña in terms of how strong and the duration?

Another question is if you see El Niño comming by ASO or later if at all?
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12163 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:06 pm

Iceresistance wrote:This is a Double Dip La Nina (2020 was also another one), the only other analog years I can remember to feature that is 2010 & 2011


They’re actually fairly common especially if you consider multi-year Ninas the same thing, which they functionally are.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12164 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:14 pm

This might be an early clue as to what the ENSO state for 2022-2023 might be. The CanSIPS is showing very faint +ENSO conditions by September. There is a +PMM present, which could help trigger an El Niño event. It is early, but I will say that the CanSIPS caught -ENSO of 2021-2022 as early as October 2020.

Image

However, I will also say that the SST map conflicts with the VP map, which shows a solid La Niña-esque VP pattern during September. -VP across Africa and the Indian Ocean is to be expected, but +VP across the East Pacific during a +ENSO year seems absurd. As always when trying to forecast ENSO a year out, it is too early to say.

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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12165 Postby aspen » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:17 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:This is a Double Dip La Nina (2020 was also another one), the only other analog years I can remember to feature that is 2010 & 2011


They’re actually fairly common especially if you consider multi-year Ninas the same thing, which they functionally are.

Is it possible to get a “triple-dip” La Niña?
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12166 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 14, 2021 5:31 pm

aspen wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:This is a Double Dip La Nina (2020 was also another one), the only other analog years I can remember to feature that is 2010 & 2011


They’re actually fairly common especially if you consider multi-year Ninas the same thing, which they functionally are.

Is it possible to get a “triple-dip” La Niña?


Absolutely though it’s only common during the strongest Niña events.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12167 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:55 pm

cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian what do you expect from this La Niña in terms of how strong and the duration?

Another question is if you see El Niño comming by ASO or later if at all?


Probably near -1.0C peak.
The strongest and most recent Nina's embedded in 98-99/07-08/10-11 all had much cooler subsurface pools than what we currently have. The summer and early fall Nino 3.4 trimonthlies for those years were also much more cooler than the most recent estimates for 2021.

So NCEP solutions for a strong La Nina event seem to be overdone unless something drastic occurs. Nino 3.4 running not as cool also is a telling sign that the atmosphere's La Nina state isn't as strong as it was in the years mentioned above.

I think the odds of a cool neutral and warm neutral is 50/50 for 2022. This La Nina will probably not get strong enough to influence a continuing of La Nina for 2022. But the PDO looks to remain cold for the next few months which usually means a less chance for +ENSO. Possible to see another warming attempt during later winter and spring before it fails and ends up reverting to cool neutral.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12168 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Oct 14, 2021 8:03 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian what do you expect from this La Niña in terms of how strong and the duration?

Another question is if you see El Niño comming by ASO or later if at all?


Probably near -1.0C peak.
The strongest and most recent Nina's embedded in 98-99/07-08/10-11 all had much cooler subsurface pools than what we currently have. The summer and early fall Nino 3.4 trimonthlies for those years were also much more cooler than the most recent estimates for 2021.

So NCEP solutions for a strong La Nina event seem to be overdone unless something drastic occurs. Nino 3.4 running not as cool also is a telling sign that the atmosphere's La Nina state isn't as strong as it was in the years mentioned above.

I think the odds of a cool neutral and warm neutral is 50/50 for 2022. This La Nina will probably not get strong enough to influence a continuing of La Nina for 2022. But the PDO looks to remain cold for the next few months which usually means a less chance for +ENSO. Possible to see another warming attempt during later winter and spring before it fails and ends up reverting to cool neutral.


So your preliminary thinking is that an El Nino would have a better chance of happening in 2023 than in 2022?
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12169 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 15, 2021 1:55 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12170 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 15, 2021 3:19 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian what do you expect from this La Niña in terms of how strong and the duration?

Another question is if you see El Niño comming by ASO or later if at all?


Probably near -1.0C peak.
The strongest and most recent Nina's embedded in 98-99/07-08/10-11 all had much cooler subsurface pools than what we currently have. The summer and early fall Nino 3.4 trimonthlies for those years were also much more cooler than the most recent estimates for 2021.

So NCEP solutions for a strong La Nina event seem to be overdone unless something drastic occurs. Nino 3.4 running not as cool also is a telling sign that the atmosphere's La Nina state isn't as strong as it was in the years mentioned above.

I think the odds of a cool neutral and warm neutral is 50/50 for 2022. This La Nina will probably not get strong enough to influence a continuing of La Nina for 2022. But the PDO looks to remain cold for the next few months which usually means a less chance for +ENSO. Possible to see another warming attempt during later winter and spring before it fails and ends up reverting to cool neutral.


So your preliminary thinking is that an El Nino would have a better chance of happening in 2023 than in 2022?


It's a possibility because these La Nina's can easily extend to 3-4 years events although they get progressively weaker. Similar to 2010-2013. Even though 2012 was "warm" it was in reality a failed El Nino attempt that kept the La Nina atmosphere. Also 2014-2018 is too recent and those years were predominately warm ENSO. I think we're due for a triple La Nina onset. They seem to happen once every decade.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12171 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 15, 2021 11:36 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Probably near -1.0C peak.
The strongest and most recent Nina's embedded in 98-99/07-08/10-11 all had much cooler subsurface pools than what we currently have. The summer and early fall Nino 3.4 trimonthlies for those years were also much more cooler than the most recent estimates for 2021.

So NCEP solutions for a strong La Nina event seem to be overdone unless something drastic occurs. Nino 3.4 running not as cool also is a telling sign that the atmosphere's La Nina state isn't as strong as it was in the years mentioned above.

I think the odds of a cool neutral and warm neutral is 50/50 for 2022. This La Nina will probably not get strong enough to influence a continuing of La Nina for 2022. But the PDO looks to remain cold for the next few months which usually means a less chance for +ENSO. Possible to see another warming attempt during later winter and spring before it fails and ends up reverting to cool neutral.


So your preliminary thinking is that an El Nino would have a better chance of happening in 2023 than in 2022?


It's a possibility because these La Nina's can easily extend to 3-4 years events although they get progressively weaker. Similar to 2010-2013. Even though 2012 was "warm" it was in reality a failed El Nino attempt that kept the La Nina atmosphere. Also 2014-2018 is too recent and those years were predominately warm ENSO. I think we're due for a triple La Nina onset. They seem to happen once every decade.


Triple La Ninas only seem common when the first or second year Niña was strong. That hasn’t quite been the case here.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12172 Postby dexterlabio » Sat Oct 16, 2021 5:59 am

I don't think this was specified here before, but was 2018-2019 officially a double dip or back-to-back El Nino? I believe it is very rare to have such occurrence, whereas multi-year La Ninas are very common.

Which brings me to my next point...it appears that based on statistics from the past 100 years ALONE, if we are going to predict the next year's ENSO state, La Nina would have the highest probability. To me that does seem to be the safest guess every year, since La Nina tends to reoccur one year after another, not to mention that La Nina could also suddenly develop right after a warm ENSO state.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12173 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
So your preliminary thinking is that an El Nino would have a better chance of happening in 2023 than in 2022?


It's a possibility because these La Nina's can easily extend to 3-4 years events although they get progressively weaker. Similar to 2010-2013. Even though 2012 was "warm" it was in reality a failed El Nino attempt that kept the La Nina atmosphere. Also 2014-2018 is too recent and those years were predominately warm ENSO. I think we're due for a triple La Nina onset. They seem to happen once every decade.


Triple La Ninas only seem common when the first or second year Niña was strong. That hasn’t quite been the case here.


There are some triple La Nina regimes that had not so cool first years in 1954-1956 and and 1983-1985. 2020 peaked at -1.3 which is decent. If this ends up failing to be a triple La Nina, could see 2009 repeat for 2022, an El Nino year sandwiched between 6 -ENSO's in 07-08 and 10-13. 2009 did not have a eyepopping warm PMM or warm PDO in the preceding winter.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12174 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:43 pm

dexterlabio wrote:I don't think this was specified here before, but was 2018-2019 officially a double dip or back-to-back El Nino? I believe it is very rare to have such occurrence, whereas multi-year La Ninas are very common.

Which brings me to my next point...it appears that based on statistics from the past 100 years ALONE, if we are going to predict the next year's ENSO state, La Nina would have the highest probability. To me that does seem to be the safest guess every year, since La Nina tends to reoccur one year after another, not to mention that La Nina could also suddenly develop right after a warm ENSO state.

It should be considered a back to back to El Nino. It apparently missed the threshold by +0.1C in the last trimonthly.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12175 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:56 pm



Should there be a >1.0 C El Nino for 2022-2023, it would certainly be welcome news for those in hurricane-prone areas. The last few winters with Moderate, Strong, or Very Strong El Ninos were 2015-2016, 2009-2010, 2002-2003, 1997-1998, 1994-1995, 1991-1992, and 1987-1988. 2015, 2009, 2002, 1997, 1994, and 1987 were all below-average seasons on the Atlantic side in terms of storm count, hurricane count, major hurricane count, and ACE.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12176 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:59 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
It's a possibility because these La Nina's can easily extend to 3-4 years events although they get progressively weaker. Similar to 2010-2013. Even though 2012 was "warm" it was in reality a failed El Nino attempt that kept the La Nina atmosphere. Also 2014-2018 is too recent and those years were predominately warm ENSO. I think we're due for a triple La Nina onset. They seem to happen once every decade.


Triple La Ninas only seem common when the first or second year Niña was strong. That hasn’t quite been the case here.


There are some triple La Nina regimes that had not so cool first years in 1954-1956 and and 1983-1985. 2020 peaked at -1.3 which is decent. If this ends up failing to be a triple La Nina, could see 2009 repeat for 2022, an El Nino year sandwiched between 6 -ENSO's in 07-08 and 10-13. 2009 did not have a eyepopping warm PMM or warm PDO in the preceding winter.


The 1954-56 Nina is only a double (ie only 2 consecutive winters were actually Nina) actually per CPC's ONI, though 1956-57 was close to Nina, and its ONI peak was greater than either peak of this double dip Nina. The 1983-85 Nina was only a double and succeeded the 1982-83 super Nino, and at the time of its dissipation, the atmoshperic state still resembled that of a Nino, and substantial warm anomalies still existed in the far equatorial northeastern Pacific. Furthermore, this Nina was largely induced by stronger trade winds during the summer due to a displaced ITCZ caused by a +PMM and largely did not have a traditional CPAC-based Nina configuration, which is partially why the EPAC was so busy during those 3 years.

It's also possible the presence of the African Standing Wave steals upward motion and makes it harder for any anomalous ENSO movement to happen during the NHEM summer. This to some extent has arguably happened ever since the 2014-16 super Nino. Hence why I don't view a 2009 as particularly likely to happen next year, and it may take another year or two for the base state to shift to Nino. However, I do expect, just based on statistical return periods, a solid moderate to strong El Nino event within the next few years, and probably an end to the extremely active stretch of Atlantic activity and a break from the inactivity in the Pacific.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12177 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:19 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Triple La Ninas only seem common when the first or second year Niña was strong. That hasn’t quite been the case here.


There are some triple La Nina regimes that had not so cool first years in 1954-1956 and and 1983-1985. 2020 peaked at -1.3 which is decent. If this ends up failing to be a triple La Nina, could see 2009 repeat for 2022, an El Nino year sandwiched between 6 -ENSO's in 07-08 and 10-13. 2009 did not have a eyepopping warm PMM or warm PDO in the preceding winter.


The 1954-56 Nina is only a double (ie only 2 consecutive winters were actually Nina) actually per CPC's ONI, though 1956-57 was close to Nina, and its ONI peak was greater than either peak of this double dip Nina. The 1983-85 Nina was only a double and succeeded the 1982-83 super Nino, and at the time of its dissipation, the atmoshperic state still resembled that of a Nino, and substantial warm anomalies still existed in the far equatorial northeastern Pacific. Furthermore, this Nina was largely induced by stronger trade winds during the summer due to a displaced ITCZ caused by a +PMM and largely did not have a traditional CPAC-based Nina configuration, which is partially why the EPAC was so busy during those 3 years.

It's also possible the presence of the African Standing Wave steals upward motion and makes it harder for any anomalous ENSO movement to happen during the NHEM summer. This to some extent has arguably happened ever since the 2014-16 super Nino. Hence why I don't view a 2009 as particularly likely to happen next year, and it may take another year or two for the base state to shift to Nino. However, I do expect, just based on statistical return periods, a solid moderate to strong El Nino event within the next few years, and probably an end to the extremely active stretch of Atlantic activity and a break from the inactivity in the Pacific.


Generally speaking 54-57 and 83-86 were weak but predominately -ENSO years. Possible the same could occur if -ENSO continues for the next year.

Likely we'll have an 04 or 09 El Nino like year within the next couple of years.
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Re: ENSO: CPC: Official - La Niña is here

#12178 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Oct 17, 2021 1:57 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
There are some triple La Nina regimes that had not so cool first years in 1954-1956 and and 1983-1985. 2020 peaked at -1.3 which is decent. If this ends up failing to be a triple La Nina, could see 2009 repeat for 2022, an El Nino year sandwiched between 6 -ENSO's in 07-08 and 10-13. 2009 did not have a eyepopping warm PMM or warm PDO in the preceding winter.


The 1954-56 Nina is only a double (ie only 2 consecutive winters were actually Nina) actually per CPC's ONI, though 1956-57 was close to Nina, and its ONI peak was greater than either peak of this double dip Nina. The 1983-85 Nina was only a double and succeeded the 1982-83 super Nino, and at the time of its dissipation, the atmoshperic state still resembled that of a Nino, and substantial warm anomalies still existed in the far equatorial northeastern Pacific. Furthermore, this Nina was largely induced by stronger trade winds during the summer due to a displaced ITCZ caused by a +PMM and largely did not have a traditional CPAC-based Nina configuration, which is partially why the EPAC was so busy during those 3 years.

It's also possible the presence of the African Standing Wave steals upward motion and makes it harder for any anomalous ENSO movement to happen during the NHEM summer. This to some extent has arguably happened ever since the 2014-16 super Nino. Hence why I don't view a 2009 as particularly likely to happen next year, and it may take another year or two for the base state to shift to Nino. However, I do expect, just based on statistical return periods, a solid moderate to strong El Nino event within the next few years, and probably an end to the extremely active stretch of Atlantic activity and a break from the inactivity in the Pacific.


Generally speaking 54-57 and 83-86 were weak but predominately -ENSO years. Possible the same could occur if -ENSO continues for the next year.

Likely we'll have an 04 or 09 El Nino like year within the next couple of years.


I could see a cool (though warm neutral is more likely) neutral next year and then an early going El Niño the year after. Which would mean one more crazy Atlantic season potentially lol.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12179 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:16 pm

The Aussies joins CPC having La Niña.

 https://twitter.com/BOM_au/status/1452850691391823874


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12180 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 01, 2021 8:11 pm

La Nina is getting stronger, average Temperature Anomaly in the Nino areas (Nino 1+2, 3, 3.4, & 4) to start November is -.775°C
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