ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Ventrice Twitter thread:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098223304832442369




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098223818500423681




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098224067461689350

[Kingarabian]

Atmospheric coupling continues to increase also.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1098187782047088640

[Chris90]

Quick question, does anyone have a good link for data on the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI)?
I have a good link for the SOI, but I'm having trouble finding as much info for the EQSOI.

[Kingarabian]

Looking forward, Euro bull whips the MJO straight into phase 3 by the end of the first week of March and most likely phase 4 and 5 in the middle of week 2 of March. So there will likely be a good amount of rising motion over the Indian and sinking motion across the Pacific which means the SOI will rise, and of course we'll likely see trade bursts. How long the MJO spends time in phase 3/4/5 is key, because if it stays and amplifies there it could stunt El Nino growth as we saw last year and in 2014.

[Kingarabian]

Eric Webb is bullish again, but we'll see. March & April are critical months

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1098612887294218241

[WeatherEmperor]

Looking forward, Euro bull whips the MJO straight into phase 3 by the end of the first week of March and most likely phase 4 and 5 in the middle of week 2 of March. So there will likely be a good amount of rising motion over the Indian and sinking motion across the Pacific which means the SOI will rise, and of course we'll likely see trade bursts. How long the MJO spends time in phase 3/4/5 is key, because if it stays and amplifies there it could stunt El Nino growth as we saw last year and in 2014.

Yes it is the CFS...but it doesnt appear to believe El Nino will be stunted




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[CyclonicFury]

While it does appear that El Niño is the most likely ENSO for summer/fall 2019, it will be hard for it to reach or top the strength of the 1997-98/2015-16 Niños.

[Kingarabian]

While it does appear that El Niño is the most likely ENSO for summer/fall 2019, it will be hard for it to reach or top the strength of the 1997-98/2015-16 Niños.

Both those years had monster MJO amplification in phases 7/8 during March. We would need to see the same thing, and with the MJO looking to go through 3/4/5 during mid March, I'm not sure such a possibility exists. However every year is unique so there could be a few surprises or a even a bust.

[DioBrando]

Looking forward, Euro bull whips the MJO straight into phase 3 by the end of the first week of March and most likely phase 4 and 5 in the middle of week 2 of March. So there will likely be a good amount of rising motion over the Indian and sinking motion across the Pacific which means the SOI will rise, and of course we'll likely see trade bursts. How long the MJO spends time in phase 3/4/5 is key, because if it stays and amplifies there it could stunt El Nino growth as we saw last year and in 2014.

Yes it is the CFS...but it doesnt appear to believe El Nino will be stunted

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190222/c0e9e8ae1cf3d2b7b5ea44c9e25f6ecc.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Heh
Very bullish
Just please get down back to neutral
Last time we had an el nino resulted in an unbearably hot summer

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1099471963087663104

[Ntxw]

If 2019 becomes another Nino, Wutip is pretty classic cyclone included WWB as an early year signature oncoming Ninos are notorious for.

[NDG]

On this weeks update the central pacific continues to warm up while Nino 1+2 cools down.

Nino 3.4 +0.7C
Nino 4 +1.0C
Nino 3 +0.5C
Nino 1+2 +0.2C

[cycloneye]

Here is the CPC Weekly update text:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

[cycloneye]

What Ventrice is pointing out is very important development.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1100051300669112321

[Kingarabian]

Past 3 frames of the subsurface shows the warm pool being reinforced over the WPAC and warm anomalies expanding and strengthening in the CPAC and EPAC.

[NotSparta]

Past 3 frames of the subsurface shows the warm pool being reinforced over the WPAC and warm anomalies expanding and strengthening in the CPAC and EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/as3LmGt.gif

Not seeing anything close to that on the buoys. Do we know which is more reliable?

[Kingarabian]

Past 3 frames of the subsurface shows the warm pool being reinforced over the WPAC and warm anomalies expanding and strengthening in the CPAC and EPAC.

https://i.imgur.com/as3LmGt.gif

Not seeing anything close to that on the buoys. Do we know which is more reliable?

These subsurface graphics are based on PENTAD which the CPC frequently uses in their discussions. Don't forget the buoys update on a regular basis but have a slightly lower resolution. I think the buoys will show this soon.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1100761337586688000




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1100761339113418753

[cycloneye]

Discussion about if El Niño is Modoki or not.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101083030108688384




 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1101100222065926144




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101101826731061249




 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1101101952094621703




 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1101103798687330305

[Kingarabian]

I think last week I said what could potentially stop another El Nino for 2019-2020 is for the MJO to have prolonged stays in phases 3/4/5 (which would promote strong easterlies over the CPAC/EPAC).

But the GFS, Euro, and CFS are reversing the MJO with some agreement that it will go back to the circle.
GFS:


ECMWF:


CFS: