ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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South Texas Storms
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10281 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Feb 15, 2019 3:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:PDO has been warming up since the start of the year:

https://i.imgur.com/nrcibc3.png

Showing this graph because JISAO hasn't been updated in quite a while.


Great graphic. Could I please have the link to that? Thanks!
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10282 Postby NotSparta » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:06 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:PDO has been warming up since the start of the year:

https://i.imgur.com/nrcibc3.png

Showing this graph because JISAO hasn't been updated in quite a while.


Great graphic. Could I please have the link to that? Thanks!


Unfortunately it appears to be locked behind a paywall
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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10283 Postby NDG » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:15 pm

Wow, it only took for CA to get almost washed away to finally declare El Nino . :wink:

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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10284 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:36 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:PDO has been warming up since the start of the year:

https://i.imgur.com/nrcibc3.png

Showing this graph because JISAO hasn't been updated in quite a while.


Great graphic. Could I please have the link to that? Thanks!


Here you go. Go to this website:

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

Then on that page, there is a side panel that has a list of graphics representing different indexes. Click on the graphic that shows the PDO. It updates on a daily basis from what I see.
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10285 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:38 pm

NotSparta wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:PDO has been warming up since the start of the year:

https://i.imgur.com/nrcibc3.png

Showing this graph because JISAO hasn't been updated in quite a while.


Great graphic. Could I please have the link to that? Thanks!


Unfortunately it appears to be locked behind a paywall


That PDO graphic is on their front page for everyone to see.
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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10286 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:48 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:PDO has been warming up since the start of the year:

https://i.imgur.com/nrcibc3.png

Showing this graph because JISAO hasn't been updated in quite a while.


Great graphic. Could I please have the link to that? Thanks!


Here you go. Go to this website:

https://www.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

Then on that page, there is a side panel that has a list of graphics representing different indexes. Click on the graphic that shows the PDO. It updates on a daily basis from what I see.


Awesome, thanks!
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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10287 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:54 pm

Image

Look at all that convection associated with the -VP200 anomalies over the dateline...
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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10288 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Feb 15, 2019 4:59 pm

I know this Dr. Ventrice graphic showed a La Nina esque atmosphere in late winter. But now it's calling for an El Nino esque atmosphere to persist or increase.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1096362202855100416


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Re: ENSO Updates: ONI for NDJ at +0.8C

#10289 Postby NotSparta » Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Great graphic. Could I please have the link to that? Thanks!


Unfortunately it appears to be locked behind a paywall


That PDO graphic is on their front page for everyone to see.


Thanks, I thought it was locked, just going to the main site page
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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10290 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 17, 2019 8:37 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC issues El Niño Advisory

#10291 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 17, 2019 2:37 pm

cycloneye wrote:GFS overcooked the WWB.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1097125686173712384

To me that graphic show it was pretty close from Feb11-Feb16. I think some of the forecast was overdone due to phase 7 bias. Regardless, quite a bit of those deep pinks verified and that's pretty big.

But now that the MJO is firmly in phase 8, GFS is showing relaxed trade across the EPAC next week. I think this should allow for some of the SST's over the Nino regions to recover.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10292 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:52 am

-35.88 on the daily SOI for tomorrow. 30 day average is down -6.21.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10293 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:20 am

What a textbook Madden-Julian induced westerly wind burst on PW imagery with (potential) tropical cyclone development in both hemispheres.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10294 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 18, 2019 10:53 am

Kingarabian wrote:-35.88 on the daily SOI for tomorrow. 30 day average is down -6.21.


Some more days to go. Feb should average -8 or lower as a whole.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10295 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:00 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:-35.88 on the daily SOI for tomorrow. 30 day average is down -6.21.


Some more days to go. Feb should average -8 or lower as a whole.


Probably even lower. GFS, CFS, and Euro keep the MJO in phase 8 through the rest of February.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10296 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:17 am

On the SOI daily, Feb 19 will be -43.61.

What a tank in the SOI. Should continue until the 24-25th.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10297 Postby StruThiO » Tue Feb 19, 2019 2:55 am

Looks like a month long WWB, pretty cool to see

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#10298 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:41 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/19/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10299 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:52 pm

This week's CPC update has Niño 3.4 jump up from +0.4C last week to now +0.6C.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update of 2/19/19: Niño 3.4 up to +0.6C

#10300 Postby euro6208 » Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:00 am

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