ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8821 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:Historical odds do not favor El Nino. More neutral. However, historical odds is just that and a probability. Whether there is a Nino or not is dependent on the wind and ocean stresses that occur in the Pacific. Last year the window was very small and the odds are daunting. It's just difficult to get another Nino so quickly after a Super.

There is a Nino after the 2nd year Nina, 2009-2010 so it's not as unforgiving as a year ago, from a probability standpoint.

It's just one stepping stone. We need a WWB in March most likely to follow it up.

1972-1973 was another after two years of Nina, post another Nino.


Looks like we're going to have a March WWB. I'm interested to see what happens in April. This month pretty much negatively affected the 2012/2014/2017 Nino chances.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8822 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:20 pm

The last 2 La Nina events have not been crazily impressive, so I don't think the atmosphere is fighting to go back to a Nino just yet.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8823 Postby cycloneye » Tue Feb 13, 2018 7:26 am

BoM update of 2/13/18 has La Niña going away soon and then,Neutral conditions arrive.

La Niña decline may be hastened by recent shift in trade winds
The La Niña in the Pacific Ocean continues to decline. Sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific have warmed steadily since late December, with most models forecasting La Niña will end early in the southern hemisphere autumn.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators continue to show at least some La Niña characteristics. Sea surface temperatures indicate a weak La Niña pattern, with the coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean, while the Southern Oscillation Index is neutral, but weakly positive. However, a very strong pulse of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which drove a burst of monsoonal activity over northern Australia in late January, has caused the western Pacific trade winds to weaken considerably. The rapid weakening of the trade winds may hasten the decline of La Niña. The MJO also led to above-average cloudiness at the Date Line for the first time since early September 2017.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview


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Re: ENSO Updates

#8824 Postby weathaguyry » Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:17 pm

Does it look like the PDO will stay positive for 2018? It hasn't been negative since 2013, and it has to go back at some point.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8825 Postby Ntxw » Wed Feb 14, 2018 7:38 am

weathaguyry wrote:Does it look like the PDO will stay positive for 2018? It hasn't been negative since 2013, and it has to go back at some point.


Not sure about 2018 as a whole, but at least the next 2-3 months. Mantua box has not changed too much. Folks keep trying to end it but now into its fifth year nonstop. Historic run for +PDO
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8826 Postby StruThiO » Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:37 pm

Image

Not sure the accuracy of CDAS, but curious seeing 3.4 fall like a rock atm. Doubt it'll last

Also 30 day soi avg soi is almost negative according to longpaddock
Edit: disregard that^ i see a tropical low right near Darwin lol
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8827 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 15, 2018 2:38 am

StruThiO wrote:[img]https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png[img]

Not sure the accuracy of CDAS, but curious seeing 3.4 fall like a rock atm. Doubt it'll last

Also 30 day soi avg soi is almost negative according to longpaddock
Edit: disregard that^ i see a tropical low right near Darwin lol


Euro keeps that low pressure system away from Darwin and moves it SW. I have a relatively negative daily SOI until the 20th per the 00z Euro... Around that time, it looks like the SOI will flip positive as the Euro leans towards higher pressure over Tahiti at day 7 of its forecast. Nonetheless, the SOI should be negative overall for February, the warm pool should be expanding and moving east and SST in the Nino regions will begin raise. What happens in March and April will be key.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8828 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Feb 15, 2018 4:34 pm

JISAO has the PDO up to +.70 for January.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8829 Postby cycloneye » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:14 pm

Kingarabian wrote:JISAO has the PDO up to +.70 for January.


With this update is 49 months in a row being positive.

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8830 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:29 pm

@webberweather
It's worth mentioning that the downwelling Kelvin Wave currently in the West Pacific is already much larger than the one in 2014 that was dampened before it reached the eastern boundary region and nearly brought us to NINO conditions in the late spring/summer of 2014. #ElNino


Image

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/964551420245692417


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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8831 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:55 pm

The warm pool continues to rapidly strengthen and move east due to the downwelling Kelvin wave.

Image

Webb is right, and this is indeed a subsurface pool that has 2014/2015 vibe to it.
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8832 Postby StruThiO » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:04 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8833 Postby StruThiO » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:21 pm

one things for sure will be really interesting to watch this all play out especially since 2015/1997 comparisons are starting to get thrown out there
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8834 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:33 pm

StruThiO wrote:one things for sure will be really interesting to watch this all play out especially since 2015/1997 comparisons are starting to get thrown out there


There are also other strong MJO years (not the record breaking) that did not produce such events as well. 2015 was already in an El Nino officially on the ONI table from 2014 and we were seeing very high +PDO readings. The perfect storm came together for that. 1997 below the surface was already a massive warm pool into the eastern Pacific and just not at the surface as well as 2015 in February. No where close at this time.
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8835 Postby StruThiO » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:37 pm

Ntxw wrote:
StruThiO wrote:one things for sure will be really interesting to watch this all play out especially since 2015/1997 comparisons are starting to get thrown out there


There are also other strong MJO years (not the record breaking) that did not produce such events as well. 2015 was already in an El Nino officially on the ONI table from 2014 and we were seeing very high +PDO readings. The perfect storm came together for that. 1997 below the surface was already a massive warm pool into the eastern Pacific and just not at the surface as well as 2015 in February. No where close at this time.


Thank you for the clarification.
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8836 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 16, 2018 3:47 pm

To note though, given the fact that we are in a warm PDO period (I think going 5 years is pretty good evidence of that and a Super Nino in there) the likelihood of a third Nina is extremely low. In fact there isn't one with those two criterias that I have found unless I missed any. 1985-1986 came up short. So the two likely outcomes is 2018 is either Neutral or El Nino. Neutral being the favorite, historically speaking.
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Re: ENSO Updates:

#8837 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:22 am

March is only a little over 2 weeks away and noaa plot still shows a classic cold plume extending across the pacific from peru & ecuador and cold down along chile.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates:

#8838 Postby euro6208 » Sat Feb 17, 2018 6:34 am

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:March is only a little over 2 weeks away and noaa plot still shows a classic cold plume extending across the pacific from peru & ecuador and cold down along chile.



The warm pool is still strengthening in the WPAC and is moving eastward with time. Watch those cold plume slowly disappear as it rises to the surface if more downwelling KW happens.
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8839 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:32 am

Daily SOI index has been negative since Febuary 1 without a single day in positive.

Code: Select all

1 Feb 2018   1009.08   1006.65   -11.10   8.24   5.34
2 Feb 2018   1007.15   1006.30   -18.68   7.36   4.95
3 Feb 2018   1004.90   1006.25   -29.25   6.38   4.51
4 Feb 2018   1006.55   1006.45   -22.29   5.84   4.22
5 Feb 2018   1006.06   1005.45   -19.84   5.74   3.96
6 Feb 2018   1005.29   1006.20   -27.14   5.33   3.46
7 Feb 2018   1005.02   1006.10   -27.95   4.74   3.03
8 Feb 2018   1006.19   1006.35   -23.54   4.16   2.73
9 Feb 2018   1008.99   1006.40   -10.33   3.85   2.62
10 Feb 2018   1011.01   1006.65   -1.83   3.50   2.60
11 Feb 2018   1010.63   1007.10   -5.81   3.02   2.46
12 Feb 2018   1009.04   1007.00   -12.97   2.42   2.18
13 Feb 2018   1006.84   1006.55   -21.37   1.51   1.81
14 Feb 2018   1007.05   1006.90   -22.05   0.37   1.39
15 Feb 2018   1010.15   1008.30   -13.88   -0.66   1.10
16 Feb 2018   1012.74   1009.60   -7.68   -1.68   0.86
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Re: ENSO Updates: PDO index for January up to +.70

#8840 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 17, 2018 2:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:Daily SOI index has been negative since Febuary 1 without a single day in positive.

Code: Select all

1 Feb 2018   1009.08   1006.65   -11.10   8.24   5.34
2 Feb 2018   1007.15   1006.30   -18.68   7.36   4.95
3 Feb 2018   1004.90   1006.25   -29.25   6.38   4.51
4 Feb 2018   1006.55   1006.45   -22.29   5.84   4.22
5 Feb 2018   1006.06   1005.45   -19.84   5.74   3.96
6 Feb 2018   1005.29   1006.20   -27.14   5.33   3.46
7 Feb 2018   1005.02   1006.10   -27.95   4.74   3.03
8 Feb 2018   1006.19   1006.35   -23.54   4.16   2.73
9 Feb 2018   1008.99   1006.40   -10.33   3.85   2.62
10 Feb 2018   1011.01   1006.65   -1.83   3.50   2.60
11 Feb 2018   1010.63   1007.10   -5.81   3.02   2.46
12 Feb 2018   1009.04   1007.00   -12.97   2.42   2.18
13 Feb 2018   1006.84   1006.55   -21.37   1.51   1.81
14 Feb 2018   1007.05   1006.90   -22.05   0.37   1.39
15 Feb 2018   1010.15   1008.30   -13.88   -0.66   1.10
16 Feb 2018   1012.74   1009.60   -7.68   -1.68   0.86



It's going to flip positive by Monday. We should see some very high positives to close out February. Euro has Tahiti pressures at an average of 1013.5 and Darwin at an average of 1005..5 But I still think February closes out as a negative on the 30 day average.

If the SOI continues positive in March, then we'll likely see a nice trade burst during that month.
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