ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Kingarabian]

Cool Neutral from September.

[url]https://twitter.com/climatesociety/status/1405590640096854020[url]

That consensus line is verifying pretty badly. Likely due to the NASA and the GEM_NEMO weighing it down. Nearly all Nino 3.4 measures are at 0.0C or higher.

[Kingarabian]

Euro has above average trades west of the dateline. This setup favors further upwelling and cooling of the subsurface. We could see more negative anomalies popup at the subsurface to stunt what looks to be a new downwelling KW in the WPAC. The weaker trades over the CPAC and EPAC will keep the Nino regions SSTA's warm for a little while.

[aspen]

Cool Neutral from September.

[url]https://twitter.com/climatesociety/status/1405590640096854020[url]

That consensus line is verifying pretty badly. Likely due to the NASA and the GEM_NEMO weighing it down. Nearly all Nino 3.4 measures are at 0.0C or higher.

So does that mean a warm neutral or a sudden ENSO change to a Nino is more likely?

[Kingarabian]

Cool Neutral from September.

[url]https://twitter.com/climatesociety/status/1405590640096854020[url]

That consensus line is verifying pretty badly. Likely due to the NASA and the GEM_NEMO weighing it down. Nearly all Nino 3.4 measures are at 0.0C or higher.

So does that mean a warm neutral or a sudden ENSO change to a Nino is more likely?

It just means that the reversal to -ENSO isn't going to happen as quickly and abrupt as those models think. The subsurface snapshot and 850mb wind forecasts don't support a quick shift to moderate-strong La Nina as those models show. IMO by the end of the 2021 hurricane season, the NMME will have preformed badly compared to any other blend.

-ENSO is more likely. This trade burst forecast by the Euro will likely spawn negative/cool anomalies at the subsurface and in theory those negative/cool anomalies will begin to move to the EPAC in the form of a upwelling KW. The current April downwelling KW (the warm subsurface pool currently beneath the EPAC) will finish surfacing and become depleted within the next 30-45 days.

July will likely also feature very strong trades and create even more upwelling at the subsurface. It is likely by the end of August or mid September, that cool anomalies should be surfacing and the reversal to -ENSO/La Nina would be well on its way.

[Category5Kaiju]

If it is true that this year will likely feature some -ENSO, I feel like later down the line we should definitely begin to assess how negative ENSO becomes as it could have implications for 2022's setup.

[Kingarabian]

CPC had Nino 3.4 down to -0.5C. Was 0.0C last week.
Why such a massive difference compared to the BOM, CDAS, CRW, and the buoys?
850mb winds have been moderately strong out of the west for the past and for the next 5 days (according to the models), while the subsurface charts show no upwelling or cool anomalies near the surface.

Even the buoys are at least 0.0C.


The only thing I can think of is that they're explicitly using OISST which has been very cool over the ENSO regions.

[Stormybajan]

CPC had Nino 3.4 down to -0.5C. Was 0.0C last week.
Why such a massive difference compared to the BOM, CDAS, and CRW?

Maybe an error on their part? I have a hard time seeing the Nino regions near -0.5 right now

[Kingarabian]

CPC had Nino 3.4 down to -0.5C. Was 0.0C last week.
Why such a massive difference compared to the BOM, CDAS, and CRW?

Maybe an error on their part? I have a hard time seeing the Nino regions near -0.5 right now

Could be that they're using OISST but the 7 day difference doesn't really support the CPCs numbers as well.

The long held belief here was that they were using the buoys for their weekly values, and not noisy satellite data like CDAS, OISST, and even CRW.

Nino 3.4 already down to -0.5C this early would be a game changer. Not even 2017 cooled down this quick.

[Kingarabian]

Subsurface resembling 2017 and 2019 very nicely.




Maybe 2021 has more of a downwelling KW (weak) signature in the WPAC pushing into the CPAC compared to 2017 and 2019. But upcoming trade bursts should stunt it.

[Kingarabian]

If anyone is interested, was able to get an email back from the good folks at the CPC:
I asked why there was such a discrepancy between the CPC's Nino 3.4 weekly value vs the BOM, CDAS, OISSTv2.1, and Coral Reef Watch.

I don't think that the issue is how the indices are created, but rather the underlying dataset used to create them. CPC uses a weekly product developed and maintained at NCEP called the SSTOI.v2 and also calculates anomalies relative to the 1991-2020 base period. Not sure if the base period change is different at this point, but I'll admit that I personally was surprised to see the significant drop to -0.5C. In some ways, this highlights issues with monitoring these indices on a weekly basis, as they could tend to be noisy. Assuming this decrease isn't "real", I'd expect the index to increase back closer to zero next week.

[Kingarabian]

All Nino regions up again this week. Everything back up to 0.0C except for Nino 1+2 which is down to +0.2C.

GFS and the Euro forecasts indicate that a longterm moderate strength trade burst has kicked off, which spans from 110E-170E. CFS for some reason keeps trying to force westerly anomalies across the entire equatorial Pacific which I really doubt will verify due to the models bias. This is a 850mb wind setup + forecast that resembles the summer of 2017.

The trades have a lot of work to do though since the thermocline is more suppressed compared to 2017. There's also a new actual weak downwelling KW. Meaning it's not just spot warm anomalies at the subsurface, but a wave with energy pushing >+1C waters east. So unless the trades consistently stay above moderate strength for the next 2 months, it doesn't seem likely we'll see a very quick August reversal to -ENSO. We'll likely see this happen in September.

[Kingarabian]

While the atmospheric pressure pattern is tilted towards -ENSO and 850mb winds are all anomalously strong trades, the subsurface will likely stop a quick August transition back to -ENSO/La Nina. Likely be a September flip. Too much downwelling activity this year vs 2017. Frequent downwelling KW activity this year is due to the abundant amount of anomalously warm waters in the WPAC. It has been a non stop supply. Compared to 2017, where there was no stream of warm anomalies from the WPAC.




2017:

[weeniepatrol]

buckle up!

[Category5Kaiju]

Yowza.

[cycloneye]

There is a growing consensus that ENSO will be between cool neutral and La Niña in the next few months.Here is the latest from the European and the Aussies.

[Category5Kaiju]

There is a growing consensus that ENSO will be between cool neutral and La Niña in the next few months.Here is the latest from the European and the Aussies.

https://i.imgur.com/2KfWBOg.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/DMGx77n.png

Wow, even that graphic shows a chance of entering a Moderate La Niña phase for this winter. If it verifies, one would have to wonder if that would have any implications on next years hurricane season, especially if it were to last for a bit.

[chaser1]

There is a growing consensus that ENSO will be between cool neutral and La Niña in the next few months.Here is the latest from the European and the Aussies.

https://i.imgur.com/2KfWBOg.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/DMGx77n.png

Would potentially play a role in THIS & next year's hurricane season. Right now, my concern is for the year we're in.

Wow, even that graphic shows a chance of entering a Moderate La Niña phase for this winter. If it verifies, one would have to wonder if that would have any implications on next years hurricane season, especially if it were to last for a bit.

[Kingarabian]

Climo is winning here and we'll likely see a return to La Nina. After a double dip La Nina, climo favors +ENSO of some sort. Though they can fail(see 2012).

[cycloneye]

Climo is winning here and we'll likely see a return to La Nina. After a double dip La Nina, climo favors +ENSO of some sort. Though they can fail(see 2012).

What? Maybe a triple dip La Niña?

[Kingarabian]

Climo is winning here and we'll likely see a return to La Nina. After a double dip La Nina, climo favors +ENSO of some sort. Though they can fail(see 2012).

What? Maybe a triple dip La Niña?

Remember 2010-2013 could be counted as a 4 year -ENSO event. Anything is possible.