ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The weekly CPC update is not released today because of the Memorial day holiday. It will be back on Tuesday.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1001121232945893379

[Kingarabian]

Odds remain very low for a double dip El Nino, but something to think about:

The longer this warm subsurface continues to strengthen and remain intact but struggles to be reflected at the surface (e.g. El Nino is delayed till the fall like 2014), the more resemblance will see towards the double dip 2014-2015 El Nino.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1001050147650846720

[Kingarabian]

Odds of a WWB event in June continue to raise with the MJO slated to move in the WPAC and more importantly, the CPAC/EPAC:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1001180909670891521

[Ntxw]

The subsurface now very much resembles an oncoming El Nino. The thermocline slope is leveling and 4C+ is in place in the eastern basin below. OHC continues to rise.

[Kingarabian]

This is what Eric Webb is alluding to in his tweet. Stagnant westerlies continue to sit at and just north of the equator despite an unfavorable MJO phase and a positive SOI.

[NDG]

This is is interesting going back to some of the last 8 El Nino years, usually during an incoming El Nino later in the summer/fall, C.A. particularly Nicaragua and Honduras experience a dryer than normal month of May. This month so far it has been wetter than average across most of C.A. Interesting the last true Modoki El Nino it was wetter in C.A., perhaps an indication that if we see a weak El Nino appear later this year it could be a Modoki, if at all.

[Kingarabian]

That's likely due to Nino 1+2 being near +0.5C by the end of May in all of those years that have CA drier. I think CA is more wet than average this year due to the preseason CAG action and because Nino 1+2 is still in cool neutral @ -0.4C.

But to compare 2018's subsurface with 2004 the last true Modoki:



There is significantly more warmth to the east now compared to 2004. ENSO wise, I'm thinking 2018 will be its *own* unique year and become an analog for future years.

[StruThiO]

I'm thinking 2018 will be its *own* unique year and become an analog for future years.

Could you expand upon this? How do you think 2018 will be unique, ENSO wise?

[cycloneye]

Interesting analysis.

@BenNollWeather
Tropical forcing patterns in flux during June!

(1) Resurgence of #LaNiña-like ascent in the West Pacific.
(2) "Persistence" -- Indian Ocean convection not giving up.
(3) Spoke of -VP cruises across the Pacific; hint of Jul/Aug (#ElNiño-ish)?
(4) West Pacific bubbles up again!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1001417914585526272

[NDG]

GEFS has indeed done a fairly bad job during the past couple of weeks with the MJO.

@BenNollWeather
Following Following @BenNollWeather
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Of some interest is the GEFS having to correct stronger & east with the current velocity potential anomaly over the Maritime Continent -- pardon the interruption, but here comes a bit of #LaNiña.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1001420654623641603

[Ntxw]

Stays at -0.1C this week's update

[cycloneye]

For a second week in a row,CPC has Niño 3.4 at -0.1C in this 5/29/18 update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NDG]

13th day in row that the SOI is positive, I'm sure having to do with Nino 3.4 staying at -0.1C for 2 weeks in a row.

Code: Select all

Date      Tahiti (hPa)   Darwin (hPa)   Daily Contribution   30 day Av. SOI   90 day Av. SOI
29 May 2018   1013.30       1011.20             4.38                 2.53               5.13

[NDG]

Here is what it stands now compared to the same time of the year with other weak to moderate El Nino years by Fall/Winter in those years. Nino 3.4 has to really catch up during the month of June.

2018 1+2 -0.8C 3.4 -0.1C
2014 1+2 +1.6C 3.4 +0.6C
2009 1+2 +0.6C 3.4 +0.3C
2006 1+2 -0.1C 3.4 +0.3C
2004 1+2 -1.0C 3.4 +0.3C
2002 1+2 +0.9C 3.4 +0.7C
1994 1+2 -1.1C 3.4 +0.4C
1991 1+2 +0.5C 3.4 +0.7C

[NotSparta]

Here is what it stands now compared to the same time of the year with other weak to moderate El Nino years by Fall/Winter in those years. Nino 3.4 has to really catch up during the month of June.

2018 1+2 -0.8C 3.4 -0.1C
2014 1+2 +1.6C 3.4 +0.6C
2009 1+2 +0.6C 3.4 +0.3C
2006 1+2 -0.1C 3.4 +0.3C
2004 1+2 -1.0C 3.4 +0.3C
2002 1+2 +0.9C 3.4 +0.7C
1994 1+2 -1.1C 3.4 +0.4C
1991 1+2 +0.5C 3.4 +0.7C

Nino 1+2 is behind almost every year except for Modokis.

[LarryWx]

For a second week in a row,CPC has Niño 3.4 at -0.1C in this 5/29/18 update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

Per this, the OHC is now up to a new high for this season of +0.94. That in itself tells me the odds are increasing for a weak to moderate Modoki El Niño peak late fall or more likely winter. However, the May Eurosip ASO forecast of only warm neutral tells me to expect any El Niño, should it occur, to be late in starting based on ONI since the May Eurosip has had a history of a warm bias. This is going to be interesting to follow.

[Kingarabian]

I'm thinking 2018 will be its *own* unique year and become an analog for future years.

Could you expand upon this? How do you think 2018 will be unique, ENSO wise?

As in it could come out to be an event that we can look back at it years from now and use it as a reference. Because the subsurface very much looks like an El Nino is coming on, yet the surface SST's are really lagging behind other Nino events.

[StruThiO]

okay, I gotcha. Thanks for your thoughts. And you're certainly right, the evidence you, webb, and many others have presented over the last month definitely make a strong and convincing argument for a nino, and yet here we are closing May with -0.1C. However, with the potential of a serious WWB in June nothing is off the table yet

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1001603272132710400