ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8801 Postby cycloneye » Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:49 pm

@webberweather
Using RMM, the MJO has spent ~ 10 days in phase 6-7 w/ amplitude between 3.5-4 sigma! Yikes. This is almost certainly going to trigger a massive downwelling oceanic Kelvin Wave that'll cross the EQ Pacific in March. You can kiss this La Nina good bye. #lolmodoki #ElNino #climate


Image

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962016268453892096




@webberweather
I'm raising the red flag that the Eq Pacific is about to make a huge adjustment towards El Nino this spring. It's far from guaranteed obviously, and dependent on further coupling but this La Nina will almost certainly dissipate when this Kelvin Wave reaches the EP in late Mar-Apr


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962017381030674433


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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8802 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:42 pm

Euro has some very low pressures near Tahiti due to a TC for the next week or so. I would expect the SOI to continue negative for at least the next week.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8803 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Feb 09, 2018 8:53 pm

Still lots of questions going into the season. The subsurface looks to show some warmth, but still locked up west of the dateline, unless we get a crazy WWB, it'll probably be a while before that warmth reaches east enough to really start a significant El Nino. I personally think that it'll be +Neutral/Very weak Nino for the season, since there are no real strong signals for either side. I look forward to having many discussions about the season during the Spring!
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8804 Postby cycloneye » Sat Feb 10, 2018 12:11 pm

Interesting discussion thread on Twitter that has Eric Blake's attention. Ntxw,what is your take on what is going on with this?

@EricBlake12
Rather prolonged westerly wind burst over the central/western Pacific continuing- really setting the stage for an ENSO transition this Spring


Image

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962371230144909315




@EricBlake12
A bit early. One more big event and #ElNino is very much on the table


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962371707641253888





@webberweather
The Kelvin Wave this WWB is liable to generate may be of comparable intensity to the ones that preceded the 1997-98 & 2015-16 super NINOs given the extreme longevity & intensity of this MJO pulse. Even the very modest WWB in mid-December generated a downwelling wave w/ +5C anoms


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962372962405044225






@EricBlake12
It should be sizable. I don’t think it will rival those yet because of the lack of strong winds directly on the equator (smidge too early), but yeah it definitely has my attention


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962373891376254978




@webberweather
Yeah it's a bit early but the EQ Pacific is very receptive to high freq variability at this time of the year in any case. I concur we need another pulse follow this one up in Apr or so when this downwelling wave reaches the E boundary region and begins to perturb the Walker Cell


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962375675364757504




@EricBlake12
MJO strength will be key too. If it keeps this magnitude- very interesting


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962377090460012544




@webberweather
A record high +PMM this past January coupled w/ a cool east Atlantic MDR are often early warning signs for an impending El Nino event & have been documented to augment/precede them on a regular basis. We'll see. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1 ... 64381/full
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... JCLI2473.1


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/962379418416177154




@EricBlake12
Oh yeah. There are a lot of flags waving now. Climate models just aren’t where they need to be to really assist either. Wild West Nino forecasts still


 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/962380372192489472




@PaulRoundy1
Even climate models with nearly perfect dynamics will never be able to predict this type of evolution in a deterministic sense, because of dependence on the evolutions of synoptic and subseasonal events that are only marginally predictable on these timescales.


 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/962388246020935680


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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8805 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 10, 2018 2:51 pm

:uarrow:

They make very good points as usual. Love reading their back and forth discussions in regards to ENSO. They're right on point with saying that we need a follow up pulse by April to propel the ENSO state into El Nino. But I don't know if this can be comparable to the 2015 Super Nino. The 2015 Super Nino had the field set and a lot going in its favor due to the prior year, 2014 being a weak El Nino. Actually if it weren't for the wind activity being un-supportive, the 2014 El Nino was set to be a strong one. The Pacific surface was much warmer as a whole and I believe the subsurface was warmer than it is now + the atmosphere was in an El Nino phase (due to the 2014 Nino).
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8806 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:04 pm

Still in the long range but it looks like a WWB starting to materialize east of the dateline. If it materializes, it'll have a bigger impact since it's situated closer to the Nino regions.

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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8807 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:09 pm

Down welling Kelvin Wave in full force:
Image

Let's see how strong the sub surface warm pool will get.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8808 Postby WeatherGuesser » Sun Feb 11, 2018 5:30 pm

Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

They make very good points as usual. Love reading their back and forth discussions in regards to ENSO. They're right on point with saying that we need a follow up pulse by April to propel the ENSO state into El Nino. But I don't know if this can be comparable to the 2015 Super Nino. The 2015 Super Nino had the field set and a lot going in its favor due to the prior year, 2014 being a weak El Nino. Actually if it weren't for the wind activity being un-supportive, the 2014 El Nino was set to be a strong one. The Pacific surface was much warmer as a whole and I believe the subsurface was warmer than it is now + the atmosphere was in an El Nino phase (due to the 2014 Nino).


I have absolutely NO idea what any of that means at all in relation to real weather we see on a daily basis.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8809 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 11, 2018 7:03 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
Kingarabian wrote::uarrow:

They make very good points as usual. Love reading their back and forth discussions in regards to ENSO. They're right on point with saying that we need a follow up pulse by April to propel the ENSO state into El Nino. But I don't know if this can be comparable to the 2015 Super Nino. The 2015 Super Nino had the field set and a lot going in its favor due to the prior year, 2014 being a weak El Nino. Actually if it weren't for the wind activity being un-supportive, the 2014 El Nino was set to be a strong one. The Pacific surface was much warmer as a whole and I believe the subsurface was warmer than it is now + the atmosphere was in an El Nino phase (due to the 2014 Nino).


I have absolutely NO idea what any of that means at all in relation to real weather we see on a daily basis.


Webb and Blake were discussing atmospheric and ocean components that affect ENSO. The ENSO state has a direct (or indirect depending on where you live) impact on key variables that control the "real" weather you see on a daily basis.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8810 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:51 am

-0.9C at the update this week
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8811 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 9:55 am

Ntxw wrote:-0.9C at the update this week


http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8812 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:16 am

Ntxw wrote:-0.9C at the update this week

We still have a long way to go to reach El Niño. Cannot rule out a weak event though. I don’t expect a Strong Niño because it is rare to see such a fast transition between a La Niña and El Niño.

What COULD happen is we see a borderline Niño this year and a significant Niño in 2019-20, but that’s not particularly likely since El Niños rarely last two years, with 2014-16 being a notable exception.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8813 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:19 pm

Is really impressive how the MJO has mantained in the phase 7 and that may trigger another WWB.1997 is mentioned and only a mention of that year is big.

webberweather
Aside from 2015 & 1997, the persistence/intensity of this MJO event in the Pacific is unmatched & for the 11th day in a row its in phase 7 w/ amplitude > 3.0 sigma. Another WWB looms on the horizon over the dateline which will further amplify the downwelling KW in the WP. #ElNino


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/963098070090240000


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Re: ENSO: CPC Febuary update of 2/8/18: 55% of Neutral during March - May / 28% of El Niño by ASO

#8814 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:25 pm

@PaulRoundy1
The growing oceanic Kelvin wave, and comparable period, then an extended period of the wave in early 1997.

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/963099633080782849


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Re: ENSO Updates

#8815 Postby cycloneye » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:17 pm

@MJVentrice
CFSv2 on an island of its own it seems. With the WWB over the Pacific that just took place, we are going to see a response in the ocean that favors for warming


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 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/963151611647455239


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Re: ENSO Updates

#8816 Postby Alyono » Mon Feb 12, 2018 4:51 pm

while I favor an el niño this year, I do caution the dynamical models are total trash this time of year. The only model I'd give any weight to is the CLIPER
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8817 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:02 pm

Image

This is a month ago i know. But at the pace and all the combination of elements needed to even reach
nino thresholds just for one single month looks to be a long way off.Takes a long long time to move oceans heat west to east. Just my 2 cents.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8818 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:17 pm

Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:Image

This is a month ago i know. But at the pace and all the combination of elements needed to even reach
nino thresholds just for one single month looks to be a long way off.Takes a long long time to move oceans heat west to east. Just my 2 cents.

I have a hard time believing we will see a Super Niño, especially this soon after one two years ago.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8819 Postby weathaguyry » Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:38 pm

I could maybe see something like a 2012 type of event where there is some warmth, but a true El Nino never fully consolidates, considering another La Nina isn't likely, but a full flown Nino is also not likely
Last edited by weathaguyry on Mon Feb 12, 2018 10:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#8820 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 12, 2018 8:03 pm

Historical odds do not favor El Nino. More neutral. However, historical odds is just that and a probability. Whether there is a Nino or not is dependent on the wind and ocean stresses that occur in the Pacific. Last year the window was very small and the odds are daunting. It's just difficult to get another Nino so quickly after a Super.

There is a Nino after the 2nd year Nina, 2009-2010 so it's not as unforgiving as a year ago, from a probability standpoint.

It's just one stepping stone. We need a WWB in March most likely to follow it up.

1972-1973 was another after two years of Nina, post another Nino.
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