ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

See this discussion of how Pacific SST anomalies are being modified to indicate warmer conditions there (La Nina) when it appears that neutral conditions prevail:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/05/early-december-2016-la-nina-update-mixed-signals-from-noaa-and-bom/

While I don't know about the funny business, but I did make a post above about how the 2014-2015 "weak El Nino" was scrutinized and often negated by the CPC/NOAA thinking in general they were a conservative entity that really wanted things to be clear before making any kind of declarations. But this La Nada has proven otherwise from them.

[Kingarabian]

See this discussion of how Pacific SST anomalies are being modified to indicate warmer conditions there (La Nina) when it appears that neutral conditions prevail:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/05/early-december-2016-la-nina-update-mixed-signals-from-noaa-and-bom/

That's disturbing.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

La Niña no longer likely in the coming months
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña). Although some very weak La Niña-like patterns continue (such as cooler than normal ocean temperatures and reduced cloudiness in the central and eastern Pacific), La Niña thresholds have not been met. Climate models and current observations suggest these patterns will not persist. The likelihood of La Niña developing in the coming months is now low, and hence the Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has shifted from La Niña WATCH to INACTIVE.

[Darvince]

See this discussion of how Pacific SST anomalies are being modified to indicate warmer conditions there (La Nina) when it appears that neutral conditions prevail:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/12/05/early-december-2016-la-nina-update-mixed-signals-from-noaa-and-bom/

If NOAA did not use the adjusting base periods, then the latest ENSO event would have peaked at over +3C trimonthly and we would still be in "warm neutral" conditions. I do not see any issue with moving base periods for stable climate oscillations when there is a long-term warming trend across the entire world.

[Macrocane]

Niño 3.4 is down to -0.6°C in La Ñiña territory again.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/806895076689383424

[Ntxw]

Latest PDO for November came out to a whopping +1.88. That was a huge jump but not surprising given what is happening in the North Pacific. December will be positive again.

[Macrocane]

Niño 3.4 up to -0.4°C this week.

[Kingarabian]

Latest PDO for November came out to a whopping +1.88. That was a huge jump but not surprising given what is happening in the North Pacific. December will be positive again.

That's an incredible jump..

[LarryWx]

We're now officially into strong El Niño territory thanks to a -670.93 12/23 SOI lol!

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... soivalues/

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

The problem is that they had Tahiti's pressure down to 881 mb.

[Ptarmigan]

We're now officially into strong El Niño territory thanks to a -670.93 12/23 SOI lol!

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... soivalues/

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

The problem is that they had Tahiti's pressure down to 881 mb.

That sounds like an error occurred.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

There is no La Nina for sure.

[LarryWx]

We're now officially into strong El Niño territory thanks to a -670.93 12/23 SOI lol!

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... soivalues/

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... tionindex/

The problem is that they had Tahiti's pressure down to 881 mb.

That sounds like an error occurred.

Yeah, there's no doubt about it. I'm sure they'll fix it in due time but I do find it to be comical in the meantime.

Yeah, it looks like we're in neutral negative ENSO.

[Ntxw]

There is still a La Nina advisory as of today, when the ONI may not reach 5 trimonthlies and none of the regions this week is at la nina -0.5C threshold. Still a head scratcher from the CPC given what transpired in 2014

[Kingarabian]

What does the CPC gain from being pro-Nina? What gives?

I remember 2014 clearly when the El Nino that was supposed to happen did not and the CPC acted accordingly.

Is there a 3rd or 4th variable that the CPC uses to guage La Nina's that we don't know about?

[Ntxw]

Only problem is 2014 is an El Nino on the new ONI base. CPC had to declare it then because by March the ONI had reached 5 trimonthlies. Just the ease they are calling this Nina is baffling when it is less of a Nina than 2014 was a Nino.

[Ntxw]

-0.3C will be again this week.

Out west below the dateline, warm anomalies have begun to pool. Could another El Nino be coming?

[Ptarmigan]

-0.3C will be again this week.

Out west below the dateline, warm anomalies have begun to pool. Could another El Nino be coming?

ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions.
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.3ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

Another El Nino coming is rather interesting.

[dexterlabio]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it seems to me that late 2013 to early 2014 was more on a negative ENSO state than 2016-2017...and yet we had no La Nina back then.

[Macrocane]

Hopefully another El Niño doesn't verify, too much heat and dryness in Central America for 3 consecutive years is enough. Last year models showed a strong La Niña and look what we've got.