ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/816698790132482048

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

I was just looking at the above M V tweet myself.Wonders if this K/W is the trigger for a large warm pool to again start the long journey east over the EQ.

[Ntxw]

Hopefully another El Niño doesn't verify, too much heat and dryness in Central America for 3 consecutive years is enough. Last year models showed a strong La Niña and look what we've got.

The +PDO and subtropical circulations have really stunted the La Nina. There are not yet any signs of cooling in the areas just outside of the equatorial Pacific in a lasting manner for a big -enso event

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/818077903082635265

[Kingarabian]

I know it's early but I think we'll see an episode similar to 2009's.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/818510053741195264

[Ntxw]

Nino 3.4 cooled back to -0.5C this week.

PDO for December cooled a bit to +1.17 which is lower than November but remained above +1 which is warmer than even last December during the raging El Nino. The PDO has now been positive for 36 straight months...it's been a new regime.

[Blown Away]

Wow, El Niño conditions or near Nino conditions seem to be the new normal...

[cycloneye]

CPC January update still has La Nina Advisory but it will be Neutral by Febuary and then going thru the first half of the year.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 January 2017
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
 
Synopsis:  A transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO-neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017.
La Niña continued during December, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continuing across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific [Fig. 1]. The weekly Niño index values fluctuated during the last month, with the Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 regions hovering near and slightly warmer than -0.5°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content anomaly was near zero when averaged across the eastern Pacific [Fig. 3], though near-to-below average subsurface temperatures were evident closer to the surface [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric convection remained suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The low-level easterly winds were slightly enhanced over the western Pacific, and upper-level westerly anomalies were observed across the eastern Pacific. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system remained consistent with a weak La Niña.
The multi-model averages favor an imminent transition to ENSO-neutral (3-month average Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and 0.5°C), with ENSO-neutral lasting through August-October (ASO) 2017 [Fig. 6]. Along with the model forecasts, the decay of the subsurface temperature anomalies and marginally cool conditions at and near the ocean surface portends the return of ENSO-neutral over the next month. In summary, a transition to ENSO-neutral is expected to occur by February 2017, with ENSO-neutral then continuing through the first half of 2017 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
Even as the tropical Pacific Ocean returns to ENSO-neutral conditions, the atmospheric impacts from La Niña could persist during the upcoming months (NOAA's 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday, January 19th). The current seasonal outlook for JFM 2017 favors above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across much of the southern tier of the U.S., and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in portions of the northern tier of the U.S.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/c ... -cpc_plume

]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/820634016630054912

[Ntxw]

At depth from TAO/Triton. Not a very Nina like.

[cycloneye]

Nino 1+2 warming bigtime in late January.If we get the El Nino sometime in 2017,will it be modoki? What do you think Ntxw?

[Ntxw]

Its a very early sign. There will actually be a good trade burst that will reinforce some cooling early Feb. I'd wait till March to see if it is a more robust warming or just seasonal variability.

[cycloneye]

The January plume consensus yellow line stays at warn neutral thru ASO but is early.

[Ntxw]

3.4 cooled a little at -0.4C while Nino 1+2 is at 2C

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Mantua is the PDO area.

[Ptarmigan]

3.4 cooled a little at -0.4C while Nino 1+2 is at 2C

That is in the strong threshold. I know Region 1+2 can change quickly.

[Hurricaneman]

3.4 cooled a little at -0.4C while Nino 1+2 is at 2C

That is in the strong threshold. I know Region 1+2 can change quickly.

something like that could shut down hurricane season in the atlantic

[Ntxw]

Nino 1+2 can have big swings in shorter time periods. I wouldn't worry one way or the other this early with that index. In terms of ENSO it is more important this time of year to watch the thermocline (anomalies below the surface) as that is a better long term predictor as well as wind stress above.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Just a reference to measure along with the other agency.