ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12101 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Jul 29, 2021 4:55 pm

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Interesting to see westerly anomalies near 120W.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12102 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:03 pm

:uarrow:

Those only keep the surface temperatures warm and usually associated with CCKW/MJO passage, which is normal considering present VP200 observations. Its a more potent signal in late Spring after you get successive dateline WWB's followed by a WWB near 130W-140W.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12103 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:08 pm

:uarrow: That means EPAC will be busy with TC formations in the next 2 weeks.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12104 Postby NotSparta » Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:39 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/870422249923051540/image0.jpg

Interesting to see westerly anomalies near 120W.


Guessing that has to do with EPAC TCs, looks like that to me
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12105 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 29, 2021 5:44 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/870422249923051540/image0.jpg

Interesting to see westerly anomalies near 120W.


Guessing that has to do with EPAC TCs, looks like that to me

Yeah too far north to effect Nino 3 and Nino 1+2.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12106 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:26 am

Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12107 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jul 30, 2021 9:29 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?


Yes, usually there's an early season active period during La Niñas especially weaker ones like this where the MJO comes around before the La Niña has really set in
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12108 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 30, 2021 3:19 pm

Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?


It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12109 Postby Category5Kaiju » Fri Jul 30, 2021 11:06 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?


It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.


2016 was weird; wasn't it like the fifth most active Pacific basin yet still had a La Nina? Also if I recall the Atlantic was very quiet throughout even September, and it was only in October when the major hurricanes really got going. However, I am not sure how well 2016 and 2021 compare ENSO state wise given one was a first year Nina right after a super Nino
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12110 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:22 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:Is it common for the EPAC to be active even during a -ENSO year like this year is expected to be?


It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.


2016 was weird; wasn't it like the fifth most active Pacific basin yet still had a La Nina? Also if I recall the Atlantic was very quiet throughout even September, and it was only in October when the major hurricanes really got going. However, I am not sure how well 2016 and 2021 compare ENSO state wise given one was a first year Nina right after a super Nino


2016 started as an El Nino year but ended as a La Nina year. This made the 2016 Pacific Hurricane Season extremely front-loaded.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12111 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 31, 2021 5:58 am

AlphaToOmega wrote:
Category5Kaiju wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
It's not a completely -ENSO year like 2010. In a sense, it's the EPAC reacting to +ENSO conditions that were in place from May-June. Seen sorta similar scenarios in 2016 and 2017. The EPAC is very dependent on one of the key variables in ENSO/PMM/PDO being positive. None of them are positive and they will remain negative. Other than some spot TC activity in SON, it would be very surprising if the EPAC continued to be active.


2016 was weird; wasn't it like the fifth most active Pacific basin yet still had a La Nina? Also if I recall the Atlantic was very quiet throughout even September, and it was only in October when the major hurricanes really got going. However, I am not sure how well 2016 and 2021 compare ENSO state wise given one was a first year Nina right after a super Nino


2016 started as an El Nino year but ended as a La Nina year. This made the 2016 Pacific Hurricane Season extremely front-loaded.


2016 seemed to break the trend and was more even loaded with no activity in June. If the EPAC can remain warm in a post-Niño environment while only the CPAC initially cools (see 1983, 1992, and 1998), this helps the EPAC considerably.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12112 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Aug 01, 2021 6:55 am

For the first time in a while, the daily SOI contribution is negative.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12113 Postby Deshaunrob17 » Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:52 am

I just realized that since 2016, we've been frequently going into La Nina patterns. 2016, 2017, 2020 and maybe 2021 -all developed La.Nina. What's with all these La Ninas? One thing for sure, an El Nino is bound to happen within the next couple of years
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12114 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:47 pm

Deshaunrob17 wrote:I just realized that since 2016, we've been frequently going into La Nina patterns. 2016, 2017, 2020 and maybe 2021 -all developed La.Nina. What's with all these La Ninas? One thing for sure, an El Nino is bound to happen within the next couple of years


Largely in part due to the very strong WAM in recent years, I think. In fact, the reason why the 2018 El Nino died so abruptly was partly due to the WAM; if it remains potent in the near future, I would not be shocked if years like 2022 or 2023 (which are when an El Nino would fathomably occur) feature a very weak El Nino at the most (when without a strong WAM we could easily expect a moderate El Nino or something like that).
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12115 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Aug 03, 2021 1:56 pm

I tried posting this in 2021 Indicators, but the thread is locked. I guess this is the next best thread for this.

This is why I do not trust the CFSv2. There is an obvious La Nina in the model, yet wind shear in the East Pacific is below-average.
Image
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12116 Postby Chris90 » Tue Aug 03, 2021 2:13 pm

Deshaunrob17 wrote:I just realized that since 2016, we've been frequently going into La Nina patterns. 2016, 2017, 2020 and maybe 2021 -all developed La.Nina. What's with all these La Ninas? One thing for sure, an El Nino is bound to happen within the next couple of years


I read somewhere (I don't remember where unfortunately), that La Niña is easier to achieve and occurs slightly more frequently than Él Niño. I believe it's because the default setting for the EPAC/CPAC is for the trade winds to blow out of the east to the west, and Niños require more frequent and intense WWBs to initiate downwelling to create warm subsurface pools that then travel to the east and surface along the equator off Central/South America. The atmosphere has to do more heavy lifting to achieve Él Niño, throw another 50lbs on the barbell and do 5 more reps.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12117 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:39 pm

Haven't looked in a while but oddly enough, there's an ongoing WWB from the CPAC to the EPAC over the Nino regions.
Image

Isn't much OHC to make any difference but we can see just how strong this MJO has been over the Pacific.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12118 Postby Kingarabian » Wed Aug 04, 2021 3:41 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:I tried posting this in 2021 Indicators, but the thread is locked. I guess this is the next best thread for this.

This is why I do not trust the CFSv2. There is an obvious La Nina in the model, yet wind shear in the East Pacific is below-average.
https://i.postimg.cc/Y07Ljrpc/cfs-mon-01-ashear-epac-1.png
https://i.postimg.cc/C1kfFBpH/cfs-mon-01-ssta-epac-1.png


Probably over cooking the effects of a warmer than normal Nino 1+2. Looks too extreme.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12119 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Aug 05, 2021 6:18 am

The SOI is deep into the negatives. Today it is at -18.39.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12120 Postby weeniepatrol » Fri Aug 06, 2021 3:14 pm

Ahead of last year's pace

Image
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