ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[weathaguyry]

It appears that there are some spotty cold anomalies in the EPAC MDR as well as the ENSO 1+2 and 3 regions

[Yellow Evan]

Different SST profile on CDAS

[gatorcane]

CDAS profile reiterates the warmer anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic MDR and some colder pockets in Nino 1 and 2.

[GeneratorPower]

:uarrow:

CDAS profile reiterates the warmer anomalies in the Eastern Atlantic MDR and some colder pockets in Nino 1 and 2.

If this continues, we should see a warm MDR and cool EPAC, particularly in the area where it matters -- right up against Mexico and Central America. This should cause subsidence in the EPAC and lower numbers there, and boost ATL storm totals due to more instability there. According to shear maps I've seen from past seasons with similar ocean temps, shear may be below normal in the ATL as well. Steering remains to be seen. Privately, I'm expecting this season overperforms with multiple threats to the U.S. We're already seeing NHC and others with predictions of above-average, and I think this is trending that direction.

[TheAustinMan]

CDAS SST data compared with NESDIS SST data for today, with the following color corrections:

• Color on TropicalTidbits CDAS data changed to match color palette on OSPO data

[NDG]

IMO, the SOI will stay in the daily mostly positive territory through early June.

[Kingarabian]

Satellite estimates are still lagging behind the buoy data.

We're now seeing +3.0C values 25 meters deep beneath Nino 3, and close to Nino 1+2. Also, +1.0C and +2.0C extend all the way into Nino 3.4. We can expect more warming or maintaining of the status quo at the surface in the near future. It's pretty evident that somehow we continue to get warming from the east.

[Kingarabian]

IMO, the SOI will stay in the daily mostly positive territory through early June.

[g]http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif[/img]

I honestly doubt it. The MJO has been in a favorable positive SOI position, but instead we're at -2. Didn't take advantage of it.
Take a look at the Euro and the GFS. Massive pressures to build over Australia starting on Sunday and they keep those pressures high well into the middle of June.

[LarryWx]

IMO, the SOI will stay in the daily mostly positive territory through early June.

[g]http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif[/img]

I honestly doubt it. The MJO has been in a favorable positive SOI position, but instead we're at -2. Didn't take advantage of it.
Take a look at the Euro and the GFS. Massive pressures to build over Australia starting on Sunday and they keep those pressures high well into the middle of June.

I think those higher Australian pressures will have a good shot at bringing the SOI back to negative at least for a few days starting on or near 5/31.

[Kingarabian]

IMO, the SOI will stay in the daily mostly positive territory through early June.

[g]http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif[/img]

I honestly doubt it. The MJO has been in a favorable positive SOI position, but instead we're at -2. Didn't take advantage of it.
Take a look at the Euro and the GFS. Massive pressures to build over Australia starting on Sunday and they keep those pressures high well into the middle of June.

I think those higher Australian pressures will have a good shot at bringing the SOI back to negative at least for a few days starting on or near 5/31.

Starting Monday, very good agreement for a while now between the Euro and the GFS of strong high pressures over Australia along with a considerable drop in pressure over Tahiti for the next 20 days. In the long range out to 16 days ouy they show continued high pressure over Australia. The EPS weeklies reflect this as well.

[Kingarabian]

Latest subsurface frame shows no new cold pool. However the warm pool to the west has taken a hit due to the Easterlies.

[WeatherEmperor]

Latest subsurface frame shows no new cold pool. However the warm pool to the west has taken a hit due to the Easterlies.

The slightest WWB should bring the warm pool back up. Not 100% sure on this...but it appears likely.


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[Hunabku]

Our current downwelling Kelvin Wave seems not quite as powerful as the last. Current wave still in region 3.4 and looks to have around a month before fully reaching region 1&2.



From: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/oceanic-kelvin-waves-next-polar-vortex

(A) Downwelling phase: Normally, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, which piles up warm water in the western Pacific. A weakening of these winds starts the surface layer of water cascading eastward. The thick warm layer sloshes east, pushing down the thermocline as it goes, thus we call this a “downwelling” wave. The thermocline is the boundary between the warmer, near surface mixed layer and colder deeper water (4). Because of this downward push as the wave travels eastward, it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often (not always) warm the surface temperatures and plant the seeds for an El Niño (5).

(B) Upwelling phase: After the downwelling part of the wave goes by, we sometimes see a rebound or upwelling where there was once downwelling (6). Here, the colder water at depth upwells and the thermocline comes closer to the surface. We often will see below average temperatures near or at the surface.

You can see both downwelling and upwelling phases in this diagram below(above), which shows the average temperature of the top 300m of the ocean along the equator (7). When the warm upper layer is thick, this average temperature is warmer, so this kind of diagram is convenient. After it gets started, a Kelvin wave takes 2-3 months to cross the tropical Pacific, which gives us some lead time to anticipate a possible El Niño event.

Edit: So in other words, when a downwelling kelvin wave is below a region, it's less likely for trades to significantly cool that region. Also by extension, it's more likely for heat from insolation, currents and the atmosphere to raise surface temps.

[Kingarabian]

Our current downwelling Kelvin Wave seems not quite as powerful as the last. Current wave still in region 3.4 and looks to have around a month before fully reaching region 1&2.

[im]http://i.imgur.com/ngbQjLJ.png[/img]

From: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/oceanic-kelvin-waves-next-polar-vortex

(A) Downwelling phase: Normally, winds blow from east to west across the tropical Pacific, which piles up warm water in the western Pacific. A weakening of these winds starts the surface layer of water cascading eastward. The thick warm layer sloshes east, pushing down the thermocline as it goes, thus we call this a “downwelling” wave. The thermocline is the boundary between the warmer, near surface mixed layer and colder deeper water (4). Because of this downward push as the wave travels eastward, it is harder for the colder, deeper water to affect the surface so near-surface temperatures are often above average. This will often (not always) warm the surface temperatures and plant the seeds for an El Niño (5).

(B) Upwelling phase: After the downwelling part of the wave goes by, we sometimes see a rebound or upwelling where there was once downwelling (6). Here, the colder water at depth upwells and the thermocline comes closer to the surface. We often will see below average temperatures near or at the surface.

You can see both downwelling and upwelling phases in this diagram below(above), which shows the average temperature of the top 300m of the ocean along the equator (7). When the warm upper layer is thick, this average temperature is warmer, so this kind of diagram is convenient. After it gets started, a Kelvin wave takes 2-3 months to cross the tropical Pacific, which gives us some lead time to anticipate a possible El Niño event.

Edit: So in other words, when a downwelling kelvin wave is below a region, it's less likely for trades to significantly cool that region. Also by extension, it's more likely for heat from insolation, currents and the atmosphere to raise surface temps.

Well it seems to be doing a good job in keeping the trades in check from cooling the surface temps.

[Kingarabian]

+25 on the SOI today. Massive tank coming soon.

[NDG]

All I know is that according to the equatorial buoys the subsurface warm pool that was developing took a big hit during the past couple of weeks, replaced by another cool pool.

[cycloneye]

The TAO graphic showing that cool pool.

[Ntxw]

Using those same buoys looks like Monday's update won't change much perhaps nudge back to 0.5C as the 0.5C contour expanded back north of the equator compared to the last update

So far the cold pools in the central Pacific have not sloped the eastern thermocline and have remained a central Pacific anomaly. Remember in an El Nino the thermocline is depressed flat from west to east while in a Nina the slope becomes steeper

[Kingarabian]

But look at all that warm water near Nino 3 and 1+ 2 that just magically appeared.

[Kingarabian]

This is why NOAA needs to do all it can to keep the buoys:



These satellite estimates continue to show they can have large erroneous swings.