ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NotSparta]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

Sorry, the image is broken for me. Is it that the Hovmöller graphic?

Ah okay I see, hopefully I just fixed the problem! Yeah it is a hovmoller graphic, I have several others saved up from other EPS forecasts and I'll have to say, the EPS hasn't generally done too bad w/ 850 near-equatorial wind anomalies even several weeks in advance.

Yeah, it's good now, thanks! I remember some hints of this type of persistent anomaly in the one you posted around a week ago, appears to have trended stronger. The ocean sure has some pretty good dynamics for an El Niño but seems to me the atmosphere is struggling to couple. Will be interesting to see what ultimately happens.

[Kingarabian]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

[img]http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/tVh_zb8D-1-1024x819.jpg[img]

It's going to take trades much stronger than what the EPS is modeling out into August to kill the current downwelling Kelvin waves.

Has there ever been a year where the subsurface is this warm and established and no El Nino came out of it? I can't find any.

[NotSparta]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

[img]http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/tVh_zb8D-1-1024x819.jpg[img]

It's going to take trades much stronger than what the EPS is modeling out into August to kill the current downwelling Kelvin waves.

Has there ever been a year where the subsurface is this warm and established and no El Nino came out of it? I can't find any.

2014?

[Kingarabian]

GFS depicts MJO strengthening and stalling in phase 5 for a while. Not sure if it's suspect or not. The result is enhanced trades over the dateline for a rather long time

https://i.imgur.com/vRZOnVC.gif

https://i.imgur.com/goW13oQ.gif

Today's GFS's update has the MJO even longer on phase 5, through at least the end of the month.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/fDJRpTP.gif[/mg]

Here's the Euro forecast:

[Kingarabian]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

[img]http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/tVh_zb8D-1-1024x819.jpg[img]

It's going to take trades much stronger than what the EPS is modeling out into August to kill the current downwelling Kelvin waves.

Has there ever been a year where the subsurface is this warm and established and no El Nino came out of it? I can't find any.

2014?

2014 was an El Nino year.

[NotSparta]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

[img]http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/tVh_zb8D-1-1024x819.jpg[img]

It's going to take trades much stronger than what the EPS is modeling out into August to kill the current downwelling Kelvin waves.

Has there ever been a year where the subsurface is this warm and established and no El Nino came out of it? I can't find any.

I don't think Eric was saying no El Niño would come out of this either, rather that the trade burst would stunt its development a lot

[Kingarabian]

Take it for what it's worth (as aforementioned not so sure if the Pacific standing wave behavior is legit), but for giggles, the EPS shows stronger than normal easterly trade winds on the dateline thru the end of August. If this verifies even to some extent, this impending El Nino as well as the downwelling KWs in the EP, will take a pretty huge beating. The next few-several weeks are pretty crucial imo.

[img]http://blog.southernwx.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/tVh_zb8D-1-1024x819.jpg[img]

It's going to take trades much stronger than what the EPS is modeling out into August to kill the current downwelling Kelvin waves.

Has there ever been a year where the subsurface is this warm and established and no El Nino came out of it? I can't find any.

I don't think Eric was saying no El Niño would come out of this either, rather that the trade burst would stunt its development a lot

I think it's as stunted as it gets right now. Interested to see what's in store for ASO and late fall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is not the SST profile one would expect for developing El Nino in July.

[NotSparta]

It's going to take trades much stronger than what the EPS is modeling out into August to kill the current downwelling Kelvin waves.

Has there ever been a year where the subsurface is this warm and established and no El Nino came out of it? I can't find any.

2014?

2014 was an El Nino year.

Yes, but what started the El Niño was a second DW KW. The first did not successfully start the Niño due to a lack of atmospheric support

[Kingarabian]

Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000: 13.0
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000: 13.7

Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 13.5
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.0
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 13.0
Avg June Darwin SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 12.8

Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 12.8
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.5
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 14.2
Avg June Tahiti SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 14.1

So, the Darwin SLP appears on the way to above normal for June with Tahiti slightly above. Actually, there have been only 3 Junes with Darwin SLP higher than 1014 mb since 1950: 2004 (preceded weak El Nino), 1997 (preceded SEN), and 1965 (preceded SEN). So, Darwin, alone, favors El Nino.

Have there been any Tahiti Junes in the high 1013s or higher that preceded El Nino? Actually, there have been a pretty good number but mainly weak: 1965 SEN (1013.7), 1968 MEN (1014.9), 1969 WEN (1013.8), 1976 WEN (1013.8), 1979 WEN (1014.5), 1991 SEN (1013.8), 2004 WEN (1013.7), and 2006 WEN (1013.8).

Speaking of the atmosphere, the SOI for June came in with:

Darwin June MSLP avg: 1013.70
Tahiti June MSLP avg: 1014.12

Based on Larry's numbers, Tahiti's June numbers support a moderate to strong La Nina, while Darwin's June numbers would support a strong El Nino.

[Kingarabian]

2014?

2014 was an El Nino year.

Yes, but what started the El Niño was a second DW KW. The first did not successfully start the Niño due to a lack of atmospheric support

Yup, I remember. But this year we're up to 3 downwelling Kelvin waves.

[StruThiO]

If the eps verifies what are the chances of an upwelling Kelvin wave occurring?

[NotSparta]

2014 was an El Nino year.

Yes, but what started the El Niño was a second DW KW. The first did not successfully start the Niño due to a lack of atmospheric support

Yup, I remember. But this year we're up to 3 downwelling Kelvin waves.

They've all joined into the same "warm pool" though. 2014 had a completely separate second one

[Kingarabian]

Yes, but what started the El Niño was a second DW KW. The first did not successfully start the Niño due to a lack of atmospheric support

Yup, I remember. But this year we're up to 3 downwelling Kelvin waves.

They've all joined into the same "warm pool" though. 2014 had a completely separate second one

I guess if 2014 only needed 2 waves then as long as we keep getting downwelling Kelvin waves, there will be a chance for an El Nino this year.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1018124949008146432

[Kingarabian]

I just did some calcs based on 1981-2016 that you may find interesting:

Avg June/July/Aug Darwin SLP minus 1000: 13.0/13.5/13.5
Avg June/July/Aug Tahiti SLP minus 1000: 13.7/14.3/14.6

Avg June/July/Aug Darwin SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 13.5/14.4/14.6
Avg June/July/Aug Darwin SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.0/13.8/13.7
Avg June/July/Aug Darwin SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 13.0/13.0/12.8
Avg June/July/Aug Darwin SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 12.8/13.1/12.9

Avg June/July/Aug Tahiti SLP minus 1000 strong Nino: 12.8/13.4/13.6
Avg June/July/Aug Tahiti SLP minus 1000 wk-mod Nino: 13.5/13.9/13.7
Avg June/July/Aug Tahiti SLP minus 1000 weak Nina: 14.2/14.3/15.1
Avg June/July/Aug Tahiti SLP minus 1000 mod-str Nina: 14.1/15.2/15.2

There are some signs that the atmosphere will try to couple to an El Nino towards the ending of July :

Combining the observed SOI daily readings from July1-14 and the Euro's pressure pattern forecast from the 15-24th, by July 24th the pressures in Tahiti will average out to 1013.90 and the pressures in Darwin will average out to 1013.50 (if the Euro's pressure forecast verifies).

Using Larry's numbers, that would put Tahiti's July monthly MSLP in the weak-moderate El Nino range and Darwin's July monthly MSLP close to the weak-moderate Nino range (although not just quite).

Note: There would still be a week in July left so it could still lean a different way.

[MississippiWx]

This is not the SST profile one would expect for developing El Nino in July.

Not all El Niño’s are the same. Some come on faster, some slower. What is happening in the subsurface and in the atmosphere is more important. Most indications lean toward an oncoming El Niño.

[Ntxw]

Will be down to 0.2C later this morning

[NDG]

Something the CFSv2 surely missed in the short term.

[cycloneye]

CPC Weekly update of 7/16/18 has Niño 3.4 going down to +0.2C and that is down from the +0.4C that was for the past 2 weeks. Is this a brief setback towards El Niño comming by fall or Winter or is a definite trend of some cooling going on?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf