ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9861 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 20, 2018 2:36 am

LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/z6AREqI.png[img]

2018's subsurface almost looks like a carbon copy of 2012's except that 2012 had a serious upwelling Kelvin wave at this point.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/I7Hmd3h.png[img]


2018 is eerily similar to 2012 not just in terms of subsurface and surface, but it also is similar in terms of a pretty solid negative June SOI/neutral July SOI. August of 2012 SOI went back to a pretty solid negative. Will 2018? OTOH, they aren't similar at all with regard to April-June OLR. Whereas 2012 was neutral, 2018 was the most positive of any year since at least 1975. Strongly +OLR in AMJ has a pretty good correlation to la Nina. 2012 is one of the main reasons I say not to yet bet the farm on El Nino later this year even though it is favored. Another reason is the record +OLR for AMJ. Based on that, alone, one could easily think La Nina is on the way.


Very good points, Larry. But so far this year, we haven't seen any oceanic response that would favor a La Nina. 2012 at this time, it was much easier to consider a La Nina due to a potent upwelling Kelvin Wave.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9862 Postby weathaguyry » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:40 am

If the atmosphere keeps dragging its feet, and we don’t get a nino this year, would the atmosphere be primed and ready for a strong nino next year?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9863 Postby NotSparta » Fri Jul 20, 2018 6:50 am

Kingarabian wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:[img]https://i.imgur.com/z6AREqI.png[img]

2018's subsurface almost looks like a carbon copy of 2012's except that 2012 had a serious upwelling Kelvin wave at this point.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/I7Hmd3h.png[img]


2018 is eerily similar to 2012 not just in terms of subsurface and surface, but it also is similar in terms of a pretty solid negative June SOI/neutral July SOI. August of 2012 SOI went back to a pretty solid negative. Will 2018? OTOH, they aren't similar at all with regard to April-June OLR. Whereas 2012 was neutral, 2018 was the most positive of any year since at least 1975. Strongly +OLR in AMJ has a pretty good correlation to la Nina. 2012 is one of the main reasons I say not to yet bet the farm on El Nino later this year even though it is favored. Another reason is the record +OLR for AMJ. Based on that, alone, one could easily think La Nina is on the way.


Very good points, Larry. But so far this year, we haven't seen any oceanic response that would favor a La Nina. 2012 at this time, it was much easier to consider a La Nina due to a potent upwelling Kelvin Wave.


Yes, the downwelling Kelvin wave has been persistent & strong w/o any real upwelling Kelvin waves. The ocean is definitely indicating El Niño.

But right now, there's little atmospheric signal for El Niño. There's no real WWBs, at least within the past few months, & the Walker circulation doesn't look very much like you'd see in a developing El Niño.

It's a pretty difficult forecast. I do think there is a weak El Niño this yr, but it's hard to upwell the warm waters or move warm WPAC water east w/o much support from the atmosphere.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9864 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 20, 2018 7:10 am

@webberweather
A few weeks of strong dateline trades like we've seen lately isn't detrimental to a weak Nino before the Sep equinox, but if the EPS verifies & strong dateline trades persist into early Sep, an El Nino likely won't develop to affect the peak of this Atlantic hurricane season.


 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1020278942467489792


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Re: ENSO Updates

#9865 Postby CyclonicFury » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:28 pm

30 day average SOI creeping up to near zero, and 90 day average is near -1.7. I would expect to see more persistent negative values if a bonafide El Niño was near. The subsurface definitely looks like an El Niño is coming on, but most atmospheric indicators (as well as the actual Niño values) remain neutral for the time being.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9866 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:31 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#9867 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1020423801966940161[tweet]


While this is showing the index creeping up to El Niño forcing slowly, I wouldn't call this El Niño forcing quite yet. Looks like pretty much dead neutral to me.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9868 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 2:56 pm

NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1020423801966940161[tweet]


While this is showing the index creeping up to El Niño forcing slowly, I wouldn't call this El Niño forcing quite yet. Looks like pretty much dead neutral to me.


His atmospheric indicator is usually conservative towards an El Nino.

FWIW the CFS has a robust WWB east of the dateline and in the CPAC.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9869 Postby NotSparta » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:00 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1020423801966940161[tweet]


While this is showing the index creeping up to El Niño forcing slowly, I wouldn't call this El Niño forcing quite yet. Looks like pretty much dead neutral to me.


His atmospheric indicator is usually conservative towards an El Nino.

FWIW the CFS has a robust WWB east of the dateline and in the CPAC.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/4DgH6EQ.png[/mg]


While I can't agree or disagree w/ what you said wrt MV's index, the CFS WWB is new. I'm seeing no indications of that anywhere else. Both the EPS & the GFS only indicate a weakening of trades to about avg.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9870 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:12 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:[tweet]https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1020423801966940161[tweet]


While this is showing the index creeping up to El Niño forcing slowly, I wouldn't call this El Niño forcing quite yet. Looks like pretty much dead neutral to me.


His atmospheric indicator is usually conservative towards an El Nino.

FWIW the CFS has a robust WWB east of the dateline and in the CPAC.

Image

With that WWB configuration the most likely outcomes are either a central pacific based El Niño which is most likely or a madoki depending on how the trades or not are in the EPAC, I see a very low chance of a traditional El Niño as the atmosphere and equatorial winds don’t seem to be pointing that way.

Here are the percentages of the type of El Niño or if it stays neutral

Traditional El Niño: 10%
CPAC El Niño: 40%
El Niño madoki: 20%
Neutral ENSO: 30%
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9871 Postby Ntxw » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:18 pm

In general the trades have slowed again so 3.4 is reacting. We'll see warming again the next several weeks after a cooling the last. 1994 and 2006 were still not up there yet either in July. 2009 was into Nino territory by now toward a moderate to strong Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO was down to -0.04C

#9872 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 21, 2018 3:30 pm

The June PDO is down to -0.04C after being barely positive in April and May.

Code: Select all

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

1900     0.04   1.32   0.49   0.35   0.77   0.65   0.95   0.14  -0.24   0.23  -0.44   1.19
1901     0.79  -0.12   0.35   0.61  -0.42  -0.05  -0.60  -1.20  -0.33   0.16  -0.60  -0.14
1902     0.82   1.58   0.48   1.37   1.09   0.52   1.58   1.57   0.44   0.70   0.16  -1.10
1903     0.86  -0.24  -0.22  -0.50   0.43   0.23   0.40   1.01  -0.24   0.18   0.08  -0.03
1904     0.63  -0.91  -0.71  -0.07  -0.22  -1.53  -1.58  -0.64   0.06   0.43   1.45   0.06
1905     0.73   0.91   1.31   1.59  -0.07   0.69   0.85   1.26  -0.03  -0.15   1.11  -0.50
1906     0.92   1.18   0.83   0.74   0.44   1.24   0.09  -0.53  -0.31   0.08   1.69  -0.54
1907    -0.30  -0.32  -0.19  -0.16   0.16   0.57   0.63  -0.96  -0.23   0.84   0.66   0.72
1908     1.36   1.02   0.67   0.23   0.23   0.41   0.60  -1.04  -0.16  -0.41   0.47   1.16
1909     0.23   1.01   0.54   0.24  -0.39  -0.64  -0.39  -0.68  -0.89  -0.02  -0.40  -0.01
1910    -0.25  -0.70   0.18  -0.37  -0.06  -0.28   0.03  -0.06   0.40  -0.66   0.02   0.84
1911    -1.11   0.00  -0.78  -0.73   0.17   0.02   0.48   0.43   0.29   0.20  -0.86   0.01
1912    -1.72  -0.23  -0.04  -0.38  -0.02   0.77   1.07  -0.84   0.94   0.56   0.74   0.98
1913    -0.03   0.34   0.06  -0.92   0.66   1.43   1.06   1.29   0.73   0.62   0.75   0.90
1914     0.34  -0.29   0.08   1.20   0.11   0.11  -0.21   0.11  -0.34  -0.11   0.03   0.89
1915    -0.41   0.14  -1.22   1.40   0.32   0.99   1.07   0.27  -0.05  -0.43  -0.12   0.17
1916    -0.64  -0.19  -0.11   0.35   0.42  -0.82  -0.78  -0.73  -0.77  -0.22  -0.68  -1.94
1917    -0.79  -0.84  -0.71  -0.34   0.82  -0.03   0.10  -0.22  -0.40  -1.75  -0.34  -0.60
1918    -1.13  -0.66  -1.15  -0.32  -0.33   0.07   0.98  -0.31  -0.59   0.61   0.34   0.86
1919    -1.07   1.31  -0.50   0.08   0.17  -0.71  -0.47   0.38   0.06  -0.42  -0.80   0.76
1920    -1.18   0.06  -0.78  -1.29  -0.97  -1.30  -0.90  -2.21  -1.28  -1.06  -0.26   0.29
1921    -0.66  -0.61  -0.01  -0.93  -0.42   0.40  -0.58  -0.69  -0.78  -0.23   1.92   1.42
1922     1.05  -0.85   0.08   0.43  -0.19  -1.04  -0.82  -0.93  -0.81   0.84  -0.60   0.48
1923     0.75  -0.04   0.49   0.99  -0.20   0.68   1.16   0.84  -0.24   1.10   0.62  -0.36
1924     1.29   0.73   1.13  -0.02   0.36   0.75  -0.55  -0.67  -0.48  -1.25   0.24   0.11
1925    -0.05  -0.14   0.20   0.86   0.79  -1.08  -0.06  -0.86   0.52   0.04   0.88   1.19
1926     0.30   0.98  -0.50   2.10   1.43   2.03   1.05   1.64   1.18   1.65   1.00   1.06
1927     1.07   1.73   0.15  -0.18   0.30   0.69  -0.31  -0.73  -0.41  -0.62  -0.07   0.07
1928     0.96   0.79   0.52   0.81   0.66   0.15   0.30  -0.72  -1.41  -1.31   0.14   0.98
1929     0.97   0.52   0.50   0.55   1.07   0.50  -0.06  -0.69   0.45  -0.21   1.24  -0.03
1930     0.97  -1.06  -0.43  -0.70   0.06   0.58  -0.45  -0.53  -0.20  -0.38  -0.31   1.20
1931     0.08   1.56   1.13   1.28   1.66   0.39   1.49   0.02  -0.01  -0.17   0.34   1.09
1932    -0.26  -0.58   0.51   1.15   0.64   0.10  -0.12  -0.14  -0.40  -0.29  -0.88   0.02
1933     0.29   0.02   0.15  -0.05  -0.50  -0.68  -1.81  -1.56  -2.28  -1.19   0.55  -1.10
1934     0.17   0.68   1.34   1.63   1.23   0.51   0.44   1.54   1.25   2.10   1.63   1.67
1935     1.01   0.79  -0.11   1.10   0.99   1.39   0.68   0.63   0.98   0.21   0.13   1.78
1936     1.79   1.75   1.36   1.32   1.83   2.37   2.57   1.71   0.04   2.10   2.65   1.28
1937     0.00  -0.49   0.38   0.20   0.53   1.75   0.11  -0.35   0.63   0.76  -0.18   0.55
1938     0.50   0.02   0.24   0.27  -0.25  -0.20  -0.21  -0.45  -0.01   0.07   0.48   1.40
1939     1.36   0.07  -0.39   0.45   0.98   1.04  -0.21  -0.74  -1.10  -1.31  -0.88   1.51
1940     2.03   1.74   1.89   2.37   2.32   2.43   2.12   1.40   1.10   1.19   0.68   1.96
1941     2.14   2.07   2.41   1.89   2.25   3.01   2.33   3.31   1.99   1.22   0.40   0.91
1942     1.01   0.79   0.29   0.79   0.84   1.19   0.12   0.44   0.68   0.54  -0.10  -1.00
1943    -0.18   0.02   0.26   1.08   0.43   0.68  -0.36  -0.90  -0.49  -0.04   0.29   0.58
1944     0.18   0.17   0.08   0.72  -0.35  -0.98  -0.40  -0.51  -0.56  -0.40   0.33   0.20
1945    -1.02   0.72  -0.42  -0.40  -0.07   0.56   1.02   0.18  -0.27   0.10  -1.94  -0.74
1946    -0.91  -0.32  -0.41  -0.78   0.50  -0.86  -0.84  -0.36  -0.22  -0.36  -1.48  -0.96
1947    -0.73  -0.29   1.17   0.70   0.37   1.36   0.16   0.30   0.58   0.85  -0.14   1.67
1948    -0.11  -0.74  -0.03  -1.33  -0.23   0.08  -0.92  -1.56  -1.74  -1.32  -0.89  -1.70
1949    -2.01  -3.60  -1.00  -0.53  -1.07  -0.70  -0.56  -1.30  -0.93  -1.41  -0.83  -0.80
1950    -2.13  -2.91  -1.13  -1.20  -2.23  -1.77  -2.93  -0.70  -2.14  -1.36  -2.46  -0.76
1951    -1.54  -1.06  -1.90  -0.36  -0.25  -1.09   0.70  -1.37  -0.08  -0.32  -0.28  -1.68
1952    -2.01  -0.46  -0.63  -1.05  -1.00  -1.43  -1.25  -0.60  -0.89  -0.35  -0.76   0.04
1953    -0.57  -0.07  -1.12   0.05   0.43   0.29   0.74   0.05  -0.63  -1.09  -0.03   0.07
1954    -1.32  -1.61  -0.52  -1.33   0.01   0.97   0.43   0.08  -0.94   0.52   0.72  -0.50
1955     0.20  -1.52  -1.26  -1.97  -1.21  -2.44  -2.35  -2.25  -1.95  -2.80  -3.08  -2.75
1956    -2.48  -2.74  -2.56  -2.17  -1.41  -1.70  -1.03  -1.16  -0.71  -2.30  -2.11  -1.28
1957    -1.82  -0.68   0.03  -0.58   0.57   1.76   0.72   0.51   1.59   1.50  -0.32  -0.55
1958     0.25   0.62   0.25   1.06   1.28   1.33   0.89   1.06   0.29   0.01  -0.18   0.86
1959     0.69  -0.43  -0.95  -0.02   0.23   0.44  -0.50  -0.62  -0.85   0.52   1.11   0.06
1960     0.30   0.52  -0.21   0.09   0.91   0.64  -0.27  -0.38  -0.94   0.09  -0.23   0.17
1961     1.18   0.43   0.09   0.34  -0.06  -0.61  -1.22  -1.13  -2.01  -2.28  -1.85  -2.69
1962    -1.29  -1.15  -1.42  -0.80  -1.22  -1.62  -1.46  -0.48  -1.58  -1.55  -0.37  -0.96
1963    -0.33  -0.16  -0.54  -0.41  -0.65  -0.88  -1.00  -1.03   0.45  -0.52  -2.08  -1.08
1964     0.01  -0.21  -0.87  -1.03  -1.91  -0.32  -0.51  -1.03  -0.68  -0.37  -0.80  -1.52
1965    -1.24  -1.16   0.04   0.62  -0.66  -0.80  -0.47   0.20   0.59  -0.36  -0.59   0.06
1966    -0.82  -0.03  -1.29   0.06  -0.53   0.16   0.26  -0.35  -0.33  -1.17  -1.15  -0.32
1967    -0.20  -0.18  -1.20  -0.89  -1.24  -1.16  -0.89  -1.24  -0.72  -0.64  -0.05  -0.40
1968    -0.95  -0.40  -0.31  -1.03  -0.53  -0.35   0.53   0.19   0.06  -0.34  -0.44  -1.27
1969    -1.26  -0.95  -0.50  -0.44  -0.20   0.89   0.10  -0.81  -0.66   1.12   0.15   1.38
1970     0.61   0.43   1.33   0.43  -0.49   0.06  -0.68  -1.63  -1.67  -1.39  -0.80  -0.97
1971    -1.90  -1.74  -1.68  -1.59  -1.55  -1.55  -2.20  -0.15   0.21  -0.22  -1.25  -1.87
1972    -1.99  -1.83  -2.09  -1.65  -1.57  -1.87  -0.83   0.25   0.17   0.11   0.57  -0.33
1973    -0.46  -0.61  -0.50  -0.69  -0.76  -0.97  -0.57  -1.14  -0.51  -0.87  -1.81  -0.76
1974    -1.22  -1.65  -0.90  -0.52  -0.28  -0.31  -0.08   0.27   0.44  -0.10   0.43  -0.12
1975    -0.84  -0.71  -0.51  -1.30  -1.02  -1.16  -0.40  -1.07  -1.23  -1.29  -2.08  -1.61
1976    -1.14  -1.85  -0.96  -0.89  -0.68  -0.67   0.61   1.28   0.82   1.11   1.25   1.22
1977     1.65   1.11   0.72   0.30   0.31   0.42   0.19   0.64  -0.55  -0.61  -0.72  -0.69
1978     0.34   1.45   1.34   1.29   0.90   0.15  -1.24  -0.56  -0.44   0.10  -0.07  -0.43
1979    -0.58  -1.33   0.30   0.89   1.09   0.17   0.84   0.52   1.00   1.06   0.48  -0.42
1980    -0.11   1.32   1.09   1.49   1.20  -0.22   0.23   0.51   0.10   1.35   0.37  -0.10
1981     0.59   1.46   0.99   1.45   1.75   1.69   0.84   0.18   0.42   0.18   0.80   0.67
1982     0.34   0.20   0.19  -0.19  -0.58  -0.78   0.58   0.39   0.84   0.37  -0.25   0.26
1983     0.56   1.14   2.11   1.87   1.80   2.36   3.51   1.85   0.91   0.96   1.02   1.69
1984     1.50   1.21   1.77   1.52   1.30   0.18  -0.18  -0.03   0.67   0.58   0.71   0.82
1985     1.27   0.94   0.57   0.19   0.00   0.18   1.07   0.81   0.44   0.29  -0.75   0.38
1986     1.12   1.61   2.18   1.55   1.16   0.89   1.38   0.22   0.22   1.00   1.77   1.77
1987     1.88   1.75   2.10   2.16   1.85   0.73   2.01   2.83   2.44   1.36   1.47   1.27
1988     0.93   1.24   1.42   0.94   1.20   0.74   0.64   0.19  -0.37  -0.10  -0.02  -0.43
1989    -0.95  -1.02  -0.83  -0.32   0.47   0.36   0.83   0.09   0.05  -0.12  -0.50  -0.21
1990    -0.30  -0.65  -0.62   0.27   0.44   0.44   0.27   0.11   0.38  -0.69  -1.69  -2.23
1991    -2.02  -1.19  -0.74  -1.01  -0.51  -1.47  -0.10   0.36   0.65   0.49   0.42   0.09
1992     0.05   0.31   0.67   0.75   1.54   1.26   1.90   1.44   0.83   0.93   0.93   0.53
1993     0.05   0.19   0.76   1.21   2.13   2.34   2.35   2.69   1.56   1.41   1.24   1.07
1994     1.21   0.59   0.80   1.05   1.23   0.46   0.06  -0.79  -1.36  -1.32  -1.96  -1.79
1995    -0.49   0.46   0.75   0.83   1.46   1.27   1.71   0.21   1.16   0.47  -0.28   0.16
1996     0.59   0.75   1.01   1.46   2.18   1.10   0.77  -0.14   0.24  -0.33   0.09  -0.03
1997     0.23   0.28   0.65   1.05   1.83   2.76   2.35   2.79   2.19   1.61   1.12   0.67
1998     0.83   1.56   2.01   1.27   0.70   0.40  -0.04  -0.22  -1.21  -1.39  -0.52  -0.44
1999    -0.32  -0.66  -0.33  -0.41  -0.68  -1.30  -0.66  -0.96  -1.53  -2.23  -2.05  -1.63
2000    -2.00  -0.83   0.29   0.35  -0.05  -0.44  -0.66  -1.19  -1.24  -1.30  -0.53   0.52
2001     0.60   0.29   0.45  -0.31  -0.30  -0.47  -1.31  -0.77  -1.37  -1.37  -1.26  -0.93
2002**   0.27  -0.64  -0.43  -0.32  -0.63  -0.35  -0.31   0.60   0.43   0.42   1.51   2.10
2003**   2.09   1.75   1.51   1.18   0.89   0.68   0.96   0.88   0.01   0.83   0.52   0.33
2004**   0.43   0.48   0.61   0.57   0.88   0.04   0.44   0.85   0.75  -0.11  -0.63  -0.17
2005**   0.44   0.81   1.36   1.03   1.86   1.17   0.66   0.25  -0.46  -1.32  -1.50   0.20
2006**   1.03   0.66   0.05   0.40   0.48   1.04   0.35  -0.65  -0.94  -0.05  -0.22   0.14
2007**   0.01   0.04  -0.36   0.16  -0.10   0.09   0.78   0.50  -0.36  -1.45  -1.08  -0.58
2008**  -1.00  -0.77  -0.71  -1.52  -1.37  -1.34  -1.67  -1.70  -1.55  -1.76  -1.25  -0.87
2009**  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.08
2010**   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.21
2011**  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.79
2012**  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.48
2013**  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04  -0.48  -0.87  -0.11  -0.41
2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015**   2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44   1.20   1.54   1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016**   1.53   1.75   2.40   2.62   2.35   2.03   1.25   0.52   0.45   0.56   1.88   1.17
2017**   0.77   0.70   0.74   1.12   0.88   0.79   0.10   0.09   0.32   0.05   0.15   0.50
2018**   0.70   0.37  -0.05   0.11   0.11  -0.04


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Kingarabian
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO was down to -0.04C

#9873 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:02 pm

cycloneye wrote:The June PDO is down to -0.04C after being barely positive in April and May.

Code: Select all

YEAR     JAN    FEB    MAR    APR    MAY    JUN    JUL    AUG    SEP    OCT    NOV    DEC

1900     0.04   1.32   0.49   0.35   0.77   0.65   0.95   0.14  -0.24   0.23  -0.44   1.19
1901     0.79  -0.12   0.35   0.61  -0.42  -0.05  -0.60  -1.20  -0.33   0.16  -0.60  -0.14
1902     0.82   1.58   0.48   1.37   1.09   0.52   1.58   1.57   0.44   0.70   0.16  -1.10
1903     0.86  -0.24  -0.22  -0.50   0.43   0.23   0.40   1.01  -0.24   0.18   0.08  -0.03
1904     0.63  -0.91  -0.71  -0.07  -0.22  -1.53  -1.58  -0.64   0.06   0.43   1.45   0.06
1905     0.73   0.91   1.31   1.59  -0.07   0.69   0.85   1.26  -0.03  -0.15   1.11  -0.50
1906     0.92   1.18   0.83   0.74   0.44   1.24   0.09  -0.53  -0.31   0.08   1.69  -0.54
1907    -0.30  -0.32  -0.19  -0.16   0.16   0.57   0.63  -0.96  -0.23   0.84   0.66   0.72
1908     1.36   1.02   0.67   0.23   0.23   0.41   0.60  -1.04  -0.16  -0.41   0.47   1.16
1909     0.23   1.01   0.54   0.24  -0.39  -0.64  -0.39  -0.68  -0.89  -0.02  -0.40  -0.01
1910    -0.25  -0.70   0.18  -0.37  -0.06  -0.28   0.03  -0.06   0.40  -0.66   0.02   0.84
1911    -1.11   0.00  -0.78  -0.73   0.17   0.02   0.48   0.43   0.29   0.20  -0.86   0.01
1912    -1.72  -0.23  -0.04  -0.38  -0.02   0.77   1.07  -0.84   0.94   0.56   0.74   0.98
1913    -0.03   0.34   0.06  -0.92   0.66   1.43   1.06   1.29   0.73   0.62   0.75   0.90
1914     0.34  -0.29   0.08   1.20   0.11   0.11  -0.21   0.11  -0.34  -0.11   0.03   0.89
1915    -0.41   0.14  -1.22   1.40   0.32   0.99   1.07   0.27  -0.05  -0.43  -0.12   0.17
1916    -0.64  -0.19  -0.11   0.35   0.42  -0.82  -0.78  -0.73  -0.77  -0.22  -0.68  -1.94
1917    -0.79  -0.84  -0.71  -0.34   0.82  -0.03   0.10  -0.22  -0.40  -1.75  -0.34  -0.60
1918    -1.13  -0.66  -1.15  -0.32  -0.33   0.07   0.98  -0.31  -0.59   0.61   0.34   0.86
1919    -1.07   1.31  -0.50   0.08   0.17  -0.71  -0.47   0.38   0.06  -0.42  -0.80   0.76
1920    -1.18   0.06  -0.78  -1.29  -0.97  -1.30  -0.90  -2.21  -1.28  -1.06  -0.26   0.29
1921    -0.66  -0.61  -0.01  -0.93  -0.42   0.40  -0.58  -0.69  -0.78  -0.23   1.92   1.42
1922     1.05  -0.85   0.08   0.43  -0.19  -1.04  -0.82  -0.93  -0.81   0.84  -0.60   0.48
1923     0.75  -0.04   0.49   0.99  -0.20   0.68   1.16   0.84  -0.24   1.10   0.62  -0.36
1924     1.29   0.73   1.13  -0.02   0.36   0.75  -0.55  -0.67  -0.48  -1.25   0.24   0.11
1925    -0.05  -0.14   0.20   0.86   0.79  -1.08  -0.06  -0.86   0.52   0.04   0.88   1.19
1926     0.30   0.98  -0.50   2.10   1.43   2.03   1.05   1.64   1.18   1.65   1.00   1.06
1927     1.07   1.73   0.15  -0.18   0.30   0.69  -0.31  -0.73  -0.41  -0.62  -0.07   0.07
1928     0.96   0.79   0.52   0.81   0.66   0.15   0.30  -0.72  -1.41  -1.31   0.14   0.98
1929     0.97   0.52   0.50   0.55   1.07   0.50  -0.06  -0.69   0.45  -0.21   1.24  -0.03
1930     0.97  -1.06  -0.43  -0.70   0.06   0.58  -0.45  -0.53  -0.20  -0.38  -0.31   1.20
1931     0.08   1.56   1.13   1.28   1.66   0.39   1.49   0.02  -0.01  -0.17   0.34   1.09
1932    -0.26  -0.58   0.51   1.15   0.64   0.10  -0.12  -0.14  -0.40  -0.29  -0.88   0.02
1933     0.29   0.02   0.15  -0.05  -0.50  -0.68  -1.81  -1.56  -2.28  -1.19   0.55  -1.10
1934     0.17   0.68   1.34   1.63   1.23   0.51   0.44   1.54   1.25   2.10   1.63   1.67
1935     1.01   0.79  -0.11   1.10   0.99   1.39   0.68   0.63   0.98   0.21   0.13   1.78
1936     1.79   1.75   1.36   1.32   1.83   2.37   2.57   1.71   0.04   2.10   2.65   1.28
1937     0.00  -0.49   0.38   0.20   0.53   1.75   0.11  -0.35   0.63   0.76  -0.18   0.55
1938     0.50   0.02   0.24   0.27  -0.25  -0.20  -0.21  -0.45  -0.01   0.07   0.48   1.40
1939     1.36   0.07  -0.39   0.45   0.98   1.04  -0.21  -0.74  -1.10  -1.31  -0.88   1.51
1940     2.03   1.74   1.89   2.37   2.32   2.43   2.12   1.40   1.10   1.19   0.68   1.96
1941     2.14   2.07   2.41   1.89   2.25   3.01   2.33   3.31   1.99   1.22   0.40   0.91
1942     1.01   0.79   0.29   0.79   0.84   1.19   0.12   0.44   0.68   0.54  -0.10  -1.00
1943    -0.18   0.02   0.26   1.08   0.43   0.68  -0.36  -0.90  -0.49  -0.04   0.29   0.58
1944     0.18   0.17   0.08   0.72  -0.35  -0.98  -0.40  -0.51  -0.56  -0.40   0.33   0.20
1945    -1.02   0.72  -0.42  -0.40  -0.07   0.56   1.02   0.18  -0.27   0.10  -1.94  -0.74
1946    -0.91  -0.32  -0.41  -0.78   0.50  -0.86  -0.84  -0.36  -0.22  -0.36  -1.48  -0.96
1947    -0.73  -0.29   1.17   0.70   0.37   1.36   0.16   0.30   0.58   0.85  -0.14   1.67
1948    -0.11  -0.74  -0.03  -1.33  -0.23   0.08  -0.92  -1.56  -1.74  -1.32  -0.89  -1.70
1949    -2.01  -3.60  -1.00  -0.53  -1.07  -0.70  -0.56  -1.30  -0.93  -1.41  -0.83  -0.80
1950    -2.13  -2.91  -1.13  -1.20  -2.23  -1.77  -2.93  -0.70  -2.14  -1.36  -2.46  -0.76
1951    -1.54  -1.06  -1.90  -0.36  -0.25  -1.09   0.70  -1.37  -0.08  -0.32  -0.28  -1.68
1952    -2.01  -0.46  -0.63  -1.05  -1.00  -1.43  -1.25  -0.60  -0.89  -0.35  -0.76   0.04
1953    -0.57  -0.07  -1.12   0.05   0.43   0.29   0.74   0.05  -0.63  -1.09  -0.03   0.07
1954    -1.32  -1.61  -0.52  -1.33   0.01   0.97   0.43   0.08  -0.94   0.52   0.72  -0.50
1955     0.20  -1.52  -1.26  -1.97  -1.21  -2.44  -2.35  -2.25  -1.95  -2.80  -3.08  -2.75
1956    -2.48  -2.74  -2.56  -2.17  -1.41  -1.70  -1.03  -1.16  -0.71  -2.30  -2.11  -1.28
1957    -1.82  -0.68   0.03  -0.58   0.57   1.76   0.72   0.51   1.59   1.50  -0.32  -0.55
1958     0.25   0.62   0.25   1.06   1.28   1.33   0.89   1.06   0.29   0.01  -0.18   0.86
1959     0.69  -0.43  -0.95  -0.02   0.23   0.44  -0.50  -0.62  -0.85   0.52   1.11   0.06
1960     0.30   0.52  -0.21   0.09   0.91   0.64  -0.27  -0.38  -0.94   0.09  -0.23   0.17
1961     1.18   0.43   0.09   0.34  -0.06  -0.61  -1.22  -1.13  -2.01  -2.28  -1.85  -2.69
1962    -1.29  -1.15  -1.42  -0.80  -1.22  -1.62  -1.46  -0.48  -1.58  -1.55  -0.37  -0.96
1963    -0.33  -0.16  -0.54  -0.41  -0.65  -0.88  -1.00  -1.03   0.45  -0.52  -2.08  -1.08
1964     0.01  -0.21  -0.87  -1.03  -1.91  -0.32  -0.51  -1.03  -0.68  -0.37  -0.80  -1.52
1965    -1.24  -1.16   0.04   0.62  -0.66  -0.80  -0.47   0.20   0.59  -0.36  -0.59   0.06
1966    -0.82  -0.03  -1.29   0.06  -0.53   0.16   0.26  -0.35  -0.33  -1.17  -1.15  -0.32
1967    -0.20  -0.18  -1.20  -0.89  -1.24  -1.16  -0.89  -1.24  -0.72  -0.64  -0.05  -0.40
1968    -0.95  -0.40  -0.31  -1.03  -0.53  -0.35   0.53   0.19   0.06  -0.34  -0.44  -1.27
1969    -1.26  -0.95  -0.50  -0.44  -0.20   0.89   0.10  -0.81  -0.66   1.12   0.15   1.38
1970     0.61   0.43   1.33   0.43  -0.49   0.06  -0.68  -1.63  -1.67  -1.39  -0.80  -0.97
1971    -1.90  -1.74  -1.68  -1.59  -1.55  -1.55  -2.20  -0.15   0.21  -0.22  -1.25  -1.87
1972    -1.99  -1.83  -2.09  -1.65  -1.57  -1.87  -0.83   0.25   0.17   0.11   0.57  -0.33
1973    -0.46  -0.61  -0.50  -0.69  -0.76  -0.97  -0.57  -1.14  -0.51  -0.87  -1.81  -0.76
1974    -1.22  -1.65  -0.90  -0.52  -0.28  -0.31  -0.08   0.27   0.44  -0.10   0.43  -0.12
1975    -0.84  -0.71  -0.51  -1.30  -1.02  -1.16  -0.40  -1.07  -1.23  -1.29  -2.08  -1.61
1976    -1.14  -1.85  -0.96  -0.89  -0.68  -0.67   0.61   1.28   0.82   1.11   1.25   1.22
1977     1.65   1.11   0.72   0.30   0.31   0.42   0.19   0.64  -0.55  -0.61  -0.72  -0.69
1978     0.34   1.45   1.34   1.29   0.90   0.15  -1.24  -0.56  -0.44   0.10  -0.07  -0.43
1979    -0.58  -1.33   0.30   0.89   1.09   0.17   0.84   0.52   1.00   1.06   0.48  -0.42
1980    -0.11   1.32   1.09   1.49   1.20  -0.22   0.23   0.51   0.10   1.35   0.37  -0.10
1981     0.59   1.46   0.99   1.45   1.75   1.69   0.84   0.18   0.42   0.18   0.80   0.67
1982     0.34   0.20   0.19  -0.19  -0.58  -0.78   0.58   0.39   0.84   0.37  -0.25   0.26
1983     0.56   1.14   2.11   1.87   1.80   2.36   3.51   1.85   0.91   0.96   1.02   1.69
1984     1.50   1.21   1.77   1.52   1.30   0.18  -0.18  -0.03   0.67   0.58   0.71   0.82
1985     1.27   0.94   0.57   0.19   0.00   0.18   1.07   0.81   0.44   0.29  -0.75   0.38
1986     1.12   1.61   2.18   1.55   1.16   0.89   1.38   0.22   0.22   1.00   1.77   1.77
1987     1.88   1.75   2.10   2.16   1.85   0.73   2.01   2.83   2.44   1.36   1.47   1.27
1988     0.93   1.24   1.42   0.94   1.20   0.74   0.64   0.19  -0.37  -0.10  -0.02  -0.43
1989    -0.95  -1.02  -0.83  -0.32   0.47   0.36   0.83   0.09   0.05  -0.12  -0.50  -0.21
1990    -0.30  -0.65  -0.62   0.27   0.44   0.44   0.27   0.11   0.38  -0.69  -1.69  -2.23
1991    -2.02  -1.19  -0.74  -1.01  -0.51  -1.47  -0.10   0.36   0.65   0.49   0.42   0.09
1992     0.05   0.31   0.67   0.75   1.54   1.26   1.90   1.44   0.83   0.93   0.93   0.53
1993     0.05   0.19   0.76   1.21   2.13   2.34   2.35   2.69   1.56   1.41   1.24   1.07
1994     1.21   0.59   0.80   1.05   1.23   0.46   0.06  -0.79  -1.36  -1.32  -1.96  -1.79
1995    -0.49   0.46   0.75   0.83   1.46   1.27   1.71   0.21   1.16   0.47  -0.28   0.16
1996     0.59   0.75   1.01   1.46   2.18   1.10   0.77  -0.14   0.24  -0.33   0.09  -0.03
1997     0.23   0.28   0.65   1.05   1.83   2.76   2.35   2.79   2.19   1.61   1.12   0.67
1998     0.83   1.56   2.01   1.27   0.70   0.40  -0.04  -0.22  -1.21  -1.39  -0.52  -0.44
1999    -0.32  -0.66  -0.33  -0.41  -0.68  -1.30  -0.66  -0.96  -1.53  -2.23  -2.05  -1.63
2000    -2.00  -0.83   0.29   0.35  -0.05  -0.44  -0.66  -1.19  -1.24  -1.30  -0.53   0.52
2001     0.60   0.29   0.45  -0.31  -0.30  -0.47  -1.31  -0.77  -1.37  -1.37  -1.26  -0.93
2002**   0.27  -0.64  -0.43  -0.32  -0.63  -0.35  -0.31   0.60   0.43   0.42   1.51   2.10
2003**   2.09   1.75   1.51   1.18   0.89   0.68   0.96   0.88   0.01   0.83   0.52   0.33
2004**   0.43   0.48   0.61   0.57   0.88   0.04   0.44   0.85   0.75  -0.11  -0.63  -0.17
2005**   0.44   0.81   1.36   1.03   1.86   1.17   0.66   0.25  -0.46  -1.32  -1.50   0.20
2006**   1.03   0.66   0.05   0.40   0.48   1.04   0.35  -0.65  -0.94  -0.05  -0.22   0.14
2007**   0.01   0.04  -0.36   0.16  -0.10   0.09   0.78   0.50  -0.36  -1.45  -1.08  -0.58
2008**  -1.00  -0.77  -0.71  -1.52  -1.37  -1.34  -1.67  -1.70  -1.55  -1.76  -1.25  -0.87
2009**  -1.40  -1.55  -1.59  -1.65  -0.88  -0.31  -0.53   0.09   0.52   0.27  -0.40   0.08
2010**   0.83   0.82   0.44   0.78   0.62  -0.22  -1.05  -1.27  -1.61  -1.06  -0.82  -1.21
2011**  -0.92  -0.83  -0.69  -0.42  -0.37  -0.69  -1.86  -1.74  -1.79  -1.34  -2.33  -1.79
2012**  -1.38  -0.85  -1.05  -0.27  -1.26  -0.87  -1.52  -1.93  -2.21  -0.79  -0.59  -0.48
2013**  -0.13  -0.43  -0.63  -0.16   0.08  -0.78  -1.25  -1.04  -0.48  -0.87  -0.11  -0.41
2014**   0.30   0.38   0.97   1.13   1.80   0.82   0.70   0.67   1.08   1.49   1.72   2.51
2015**   2.45   2.30   2.00   1.44   1.20   1.54   1.84   1.56   1.94   1.47   0.86   1.01
2016**   1.53   1.75   2.40   2.62   2.35   2.03   1.25   0.52   0.45   0.56   1.88   1.17
2017**   0.77   0.70   0.74   1.12   0.88   0.79   0.10   0.09   0.32   0.05   0.15   0.50
2018**   0.70   0.37  -0.05   0.11   0.11  -0.04


http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest


Thank you. I thought JISAO was dead.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9874 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Jul 21, 2018 4:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:In general the trades have slowed again so 3.4 is reacting. We'll see warming again the next several weeks after a cooling the last. 1994 and 2006 were still not up there yet either in July. 2009 was into Nino territory by now toward a moderate to strong Nino.


Surprisingly the eastern portion of the sub surface pool has had pronounced warming the past week:

Image

And I believe if the CFS WWB if true, it would help to repair the cooling on the western side of the sub surface pool.
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Re: ENSO Updates: June PDO was down to -0.04C

#9875 Postby gatorcane » Sat Jul 21, 2018 7:15 pm

Looks like nothing has really changed from several months ago with El Niño which was a chance of a weak west-based El Niño, if any Nino at all, with not much impact on the Atlantic hurricane season.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9876 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Jul 22, 2018 3:48 am

Looks like I still have a lot to learn about MJO and ENSO...I thought the strong MJO signal staying in the WPAC would warm up the ENSO regions, but what has happened so far is the other way around.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9877 Postby euro6208 » Sun Jul 22, 2018 5:39 am

I'm thinking el nino or no el nino, next year will be even bigger.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9878 Postby NDG » Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:42 am



Notice that the CFS did a horrible job last month.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9879 Postby NotSparta » Sun Jul 22, 2018 7:45 am

NDG wrote:


Notice that the CFS did a horrible job last month.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Jv24V3Q.jpg[/mg]


Probably related to it standing alone forecasting a WWB within a week or so
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Re: ENSO Updates

#9880 Postby LarryWx » Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:03 am

The July Eurosip was just released. It has a similar to very slightly warmer ASO Niño 3.4 forecast vs the June Eurosip of just over +0.5 with near +0.4 in Aug, near +0.5 in Sep, and near +0.7 in Oct.

The July Eurosip is maintaining the very bearish (high) ASO SLP that June had for the Atlantic basin and still says be extra wary in Hawaii:

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/char ... %20summary
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