ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12121 Postby cycloneye » Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:39 pm

Pacific keeps cooling fast and La Niña comming looks like a sure thing.

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12122 Postby AlphaToOmega » Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:47 pm

cycloneye wrote:Pacific keeps cooling fast and La Niña comming looks like a sure thing.

https://i.imgur.com/gBQQj8V.png

https://i.imgur.com/KT7UDL2.gif


The daily SOI definitely does not show that.
Last edited by AlphaToOmega on Fri Aug 06, 2021 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12123 Postby CyclonicFury » Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:50 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Pacific keeps cooling fast and La Niña comming looks like a sure thing.

https://i.imgur.com/gBQQj8V.png

https://i.imgur.com/KT7UDL2.gif


The SOI definitely does not show that.

The 30-day average SOI is 12.01 and the 90-day average is 5.97. I wouldn't look too much into the daily SOI contribution as it is very noisy.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12124 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 06, 2021 4:58 pm

AlphaToOmega wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Pacific keeps cooling fast and La Niña comming looks like a sure thing.

https://i.imgur.com/gBQQj8V.png

https://i.imgur.com/KT7UDL2.gif


The SOI definitely does not show that.

Need to look at the 30 day SOI vs the daily values. It's well into La Nina territory. The 90 day SOI is the actual El Nino/ La Nina indicator. It's less noisy. Right now @ +6.0 it's near cool neutral territory. There isn't enough MJO to switch the 90 day or even the 30 day SOI negative.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12125 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Aug 06, 2021 5:29 pm

La Niña will probably really kick in full force come September as westerlies leave the eastern Pacific. When it peaks and how strong it gets will determine ENSO odds for next year.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12126 Postby AlphaToOmega » Thu Aug 12, 2021 6:54 am

For the first time in over a month, the 30-day SOI average is below 10. Ever since July 31, the 30-day SOI average has been dropping precipitously.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12127 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 12, 2021 9:37 am

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 August 2021

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January).

Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


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Re: ENSO Updates

#12128 Postby crownweather » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:12 am

cycloneye wrote:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 August 2021

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January).

Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


https://i.imgur.com/w52H1e1.png


That March, April, May, 2022 ENSO forecast is intriguing. Suggests ***maybe*** a neutral ENSO for the 2022 hurricane season. Of course, let's get through this one first.
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Re: ENSO Updates: Neutral changing to La Niña by September/October

#12129 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 12, 2021 12:04 pm

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Re: ENSO Updates

#12130 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:17 pm

crownweather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 August 2021

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January).

Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


https://i.imgur.com/w52H1e1.png


That March, April, May, 2022 ENSO forecast is intriguing. Suggests ***maybe*** a neutral ENSO for the 2022 hurricane season. Of course, let's get through this one first.


Maybe another cool-Neutral -> weak La Nina for 2022. It just depends when this La Nina peaks and how strong. So if it can peak in late winter/early Spring vs mid winter, odds will favor another cool ENSO event.
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Re: ENSO Updates: Neutral changing to La Niña by September/October

#12131 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 12, 2021 3:21 pm

It's normal to see some differences but I've never seen these two subsurface charts this off from one another.

Image
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12132 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Aug 12, 2021 10:44 pm

crownweather wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 August 2021

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January).

Recently, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near-to-below average in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, with above-average SSTs in the far eastern Pacific [Fig. 1]. In the last week, most Niño indices were slightly negative (-0.2°C to -0.3°C) except for the Niño-1+2 index, which was +0.7°C [Fig. 2]. Subsurface temperatures cooled considerably in July, becoming quite negative (averaged from 180-100°W; [Fig. 3]), reflecting the emergence of below-average subsurface temperatures east of the Date Line [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across the eastern Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western Pacific Ocean and enhanced over a small region near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Given the surface conditions, the ocean-atmosphere system reflected ENSO-neutral.

Compared to last month, forecasts from the IRI/CPC plume are generally cooler in the Niño-3.4 SST region during the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. Recent model runs from the NCEP CFSv2 and the North American Multi-Model Ensemble suggest the onset of a weak La Niña in the coming months, persisting through winter 2021-22. The forecaster consensus continues to favor these models, which is also supported by the noticeable decrease in the observed subsurface temperature anomalies this past month. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored for the remainder of summer (~60% chance in the July-September season), with La Niña possibly emerging during the August-October season and lasting through the 2021-22 winter (~70% chance during November-January; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).


https://i.imgur.com/w52H1e1.png


That March, April, May, 2022 ENSO forecast is intriguing. Suggests ***maybe*** a neutral ENSO for the 2022 hurricane season. Of course, let's get through this one first.


I know it's ways away and we must first focus on getting through this year, but the possibility having a strong enough La Nina this year that it makes a -ENSO event more likely in 2022 (even if cool neutral at the most extreme) is quite alarming. Who knows if it'll cause the Atlantic to be favorable once again and generate a 7th consecutive above average year? We'll have to wait and see though
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Re: ENSO Updates: Neutral changing to La Niña by September/October

#12133 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:30 pm

Eventually a multi-year Niña would flip the NAO I believe and try to weaken the AMO I think.
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Re: ENSO Updates: Neutral changing to La Niña by September/October

#12134 Postby Category5Kaiju » Thu Aug 12, 2021 11:35 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Eventually a multi-year Niña would flip the NAO I believe and try to weaken the AMO I think.


The 1973-1975 and 1998-2000 La Ninas did not do that though from my understanding?
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12135 Postby AlphaToOmega » Sun Aug 15, 2021 5:40 am

The 30-day SOI has dropped precipitously. For the first time in a while, it is below 7.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12136 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Aug 15, 2021 6:26 pm

Well defined tropical instability waves over the eastern Nino regions signaling a continued transition to La Nina and the peak of +ENSO:
Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12137 Postby AlphaToOmega » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:17 am

The 30-day SOI average is below 5 for the first time in a while. The 30-day SOI average has been dropping precipitously this month. The 90-day SOI average is also dropping.
17 Aug 2021 1015.49 1014.00 -0.79 4.83 5.02
16 Aug 2021 1016.52 1014.25 3.94 5.43 5.09
15 Aug 2021 1014.80 1013.10 0.49 6.31 5.03
14 Aug 2021 1013.90 1013.05 -4.67 7.40 5.14
13 Aug 2021 1016.02 1013.85 3.34 8.82 5.44
12 Aug 2021 1017.38 1014.75 6.13 9.58 5.69
11 Aug 2021 1018.11 1014.80 10.26 10.21 5.81
10 Aug 2021 1018.19 1013.65 17.72 10.45 5.79
9 Aug 2021 1017.38 1015.05 4.31 10.35 5.66
8 Aug 2021 1017.20 1015.95 -2.25 10.77 5.71
7 Aug 2021 1016.96 1016.80 -8.86 11.34 5.82
6 Aug 2021 1015.35 1016.70 -18.03 12.01 5.97
5 Aug 2021 1013.99 1015.40 -18.39 12.99 6.29
4 Aug 2021 1014.71 1014.80 -10.38 13.71 6.74
3 Aug 2021 1015.95 1013.20 6.86 14.09 7.22
2 Aug 2021 1015.08 1012.65 4.92 14.37 7.43
1 Aug 2021 1014.46 1013.10 -1.58 14.84 7.46
31 Jul 2021 1015.39 1013.30 7.02 15.75 7.34
30 Jul 2021 1015.98 1012.90 13.11 16.57 7.03
29 Jul 2021 1015.56 1012.60 12.37 16.49 6.73
28 Jul 2021 1014.67 1013.55 1.05 16.10 6.53
27 Jul 2021 1015.59 1012.90 10.71 15.86 6.58
26 Jul 2021 1016.52 1013.20 14.59 15.32 6.57
25 Jul 2021 1016.49 1012.95 15.94 15.03 6.47
24 Jul 2021 1016.48 1012.90 16.19 14.85 6.34
23 Jul 2021 1016.15 1012.30 17.85 14.80 6.02
22 Jul 2021 1016.63 1013.00 16.50 14.43 5.81
21 Jul 2021 1016.38 1014.00 8.80 13.91 5.76
20 Jul 2021 1015.49 1013.10 8.86 13.16 5.74
19 Jul 2021 1014.83 1012.45 8.80 12.32 5.74
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12138 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Aug 30, 2021 11:05 am

Image
cold anomaly has now reached the dateline
how long will this Niña last
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12139 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 30, 2021 1:43 pm

mrbagyo wrote:https://i.imgur.com/mvYMmEn.png
cold anomaly has now reached the dateline
how long will this Niña last


CFS peaks this in the fall IIRC.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#12140 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 30, 2021 3:26 pm

mrbagyo wrote:https://i.imgur.com/mvYMmEn.png
cold anomaly has now reached the dateline
how long will this Niña last

From what I'm seeing, pretty good shot there will be another La Nina for 2022. We'll know easily by February though.
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