ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

NCDC uses a separate dataset. The difference is the climo base used as NCDC derives from ERSSTv4 which is a smoothed base, no satellite input. Jisao Wash (mantua) is OISST which does include satellite. Its similar to the different ENSO indexes. Mantua derived the index first.

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, pretty neutral SOI's overall for the last 3 weeks:

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seas ... soivalues/

[cycloneye]

The mid-August plume off ENSO models are in the borderline Neutral/Weak La Nina territory for the next few months.(Yellow line is the consensus)

[Ntxw]

-0.5C this week.

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 8/22/16 having Nino 3.4 at -0.5C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Darvince]

The prospect of a 2017-18 niño of any size above weak, like what CANSIPS is showing, greatly worries me.

[Hunabku]

The prospect of a 2017-18 niño of any size above weak, like what CANSIPS is showing, greatly worries me.

Why is it because it messes with that year's Atlantic hurricane season?

It's highly unlikely we'll see a strong nino that soon. What's more worrisome to me is the trend toward ever-increasing ocean heat content that we're seeing due to global warming. And then you have to add on top of that the possibility of an ensuing decadal phase in which stronger ninos occur. With these two factors, and given enough years for enso to deep cycle and upper ocean heat to build up, and you have a recipe for a super nino that could easily surpass 2015-2016.

[cycloneye]

CPC update of 8/29/16 has Nino 3.4 down to -0.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Darvince]

Why is it because it messes with that year's Atlantic hurricane season?

No, I too am incredibly worried by global warming. The main reason I'm worried about it is because if that happened, we could breach the +1.5C limit over a decade early and be thrust into an even more dangerous climate state. I honestly don't care about the Atlantic that much and I become slightly afraid every time a strong cyclone/typhoon/hurricane threatens to make landfall, especially as we get further into the 21st century with accelerating sea level rise and the resulting more and more intense storm surges.

All that heat pumped into the oceans already has begun what is likely a permanent global coral bleaching event, so coral reef environments are now going to decay into the future until they no longer exist, and the state of the Arctic sea ice is its worst ever (not the smallest extent, but the most vulnerable as the floes that are there have the smallest average size on record) and it's only going to get worse. So no, it is not because the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season would be inactive, it is because 2017 and beyond would be dangerous for humanity.

Oh yeah also the ocean heat content is what's been driving the Arctic sea ice loss and we reached a critical threshold this month for the temperature difference between the Barents and Arctic driving massive lows that have been shattering the ice in an unprecedented way. And we're probably going to see the first ice-free Arctic within the next ten years.

[Hunabku]

Why is it because it messes with that year's Atlantic hurricane season?

No, I too am incredibly worried by global warming. The main reason I'm worried about it is because if that happened, we could breach the +1.5C limit over a decade early and be thrust into an even more dangerous climate state. . . .

Right there with you on all counts, just way too much energy in our climate system that the Pacific, prior to 2014, was to large extent hiding from the atmosphere. In addition all oceans are heating, in particular you draw attention to the north atlantic, which has been record hot, largely because the arctic regions are heating 2-3 times faster than the rest of the planet.

It's a very bad time for the oceans to be belching their heat, especially with the Arctic ice pack in arguably its worst condition in human history and quite likely far beyond that. Very few people understand just how much solar energy the Arctic sea ice reflects into space. Increased carbon dioxide levels pale in comparison to the amount of heat forcing that an increasingly ice-free arctic ocean is rapidly imparting into our climate system. In a climatically immediate kind of way, our planetary energy budget is being thrown way out of its holocene balance. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_energy_budget

Things we are now seeing, like Great Arctic Cyclones one after another, profound shifts in the jet streams and torrential storms and droughts, are only going to increase. Hold on to your hats folks we're in for a wild ride much sooner than most forecasted.

[Macrocane]

Another El Niño would be catastrophic for Central America. There's a region in Central America called the "dry corridor" that has had below average rainfall since 2012, with 2014 and 2015 being the worst years. I'm sure several parts of the world wouldn't stand another El Niño in such a short period.

[Ntxw]

Notice that the official ONI ERSSTv4 has 2014-2015 an El Nino again after having it removed last year. Officially makes 2014-2016 a multiyear Nino event once again (including the super).

[Macrocane]

Updates this week:
El Niño 3.4 is down to -0.7°C
The ONI value of JJA is -0.3°C

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 9/6/16.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Darvince]

say goodbye to the +1.5C limit if this verifies

[Ntxw]

That is pretty crazy if another super El Nino happened in 2017 like that cfsv2 run. I highly doubt it though, its unprecedented to get super Ninos in the same decade. Though another El Nino is not off the table. I'll believe it more if the PDO can hang on positive next year. Right now though anything is little more than an educated guess beyond winter. We're still trying to see if the Nina will officially fill the requirements for a weak event still.

There is some anomalous trades to help the Nina mid month

[WeatherEmperor]

Wow another El Nino so fast? This could have huge implications for the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. 2015 had El Nino, 2016 behaved kinda sorta like an El Nino and now 2017 could have another one. What does the latest Euro forecast?

[Macrocane]

Please God no, not another one.
We all know about the spring time barrier for ENSO forecast, but how good does it verify this time of year?
We can't stand another year of heat and dryness anymore.

[Darvince]

That is pretty crazy if another super El Nino happened in 2017 like that cfsv2 run. I highly doubt it though, its unprecedented to get super Ninos in the same decade.

One of the consequences of global warming that has so far failed to verify is an increase in frequency and intensity of el Niño events.

[cycloneye]

La Nina Watch is Dropped

CPC monthly update of 9/8/16 has Neutral all the way to April at least and after that El Nino may come again.

Synopsis: ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favored (between 55-60%) during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17.

ENSO-Neutral conditions were observed over the past month, although sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were below-average over the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). While the Niño-3.4 and Niño-3 regions remained around -0.5°C for most of the month, Niño-4 and Niño 1+2 were -0.1°C and +0.3°C, respectively, by the end of the month (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperatures across the eastern and central Pacific remained below average (Fig. 3), and negative temperature anomalies remained weak across the western Pacific (Fig. 4). Atmospheric anomalies over the tropical Pacific Ocean largely indicated ENSO-Neutral conditions. The traditional Southern Oscillation index and the equatorial Southern Oscillation index were weakly positive during August. The lower-level winds were near average, while the upper-level winds were anomalously westerly in a small region to the east of the International Date Line. Convection was suppressed over the western and central tropical Pacific, although less suppressed compared to last month (Fig. 5). Overall, the combined ocean and atmosphere system continues to reflect ENSO-Neutral.

The multi-model averages favor borderline Neutral-La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) during the Northern Hemisphere fall, continuing into winter (Fig. 6). However, the more recently updated model runs from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) more strongly favor ENSO-Neutral (Fig. 7). The forecaster consensus prefers this outcome, which is supported by the lack of significant anomalies in several indicators over the past month (winds, convection, subsurface temperatures). Overall, ENSO-Neutral conditions are slightly favored (between 55-60%) during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... disc.shtml