ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[Ntxw]

Warmed back up to -0.6C this week

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/789125562589642752

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/789177203674128384

[Ntxw]

-0.6C again this week

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC 10/24/16 update that has Nino 3.4 staying at -0.6C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[HURRICANELONNY]

http://www.aol.com/article/news/2016/10 ... /21590334/

I guess it's official

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-sum ... ific-Ocean

NINO3.4 outlook
The latest NINO3.4 outlooks (initialised in October) suggest temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are likely to remain cooler than average – but ENSO neutral – for the remainder of 2016. The NOAA and JMA models indicate La Niña thresholds are likely to be reached by December and January, respectively. Two more models, NASA and UKMO suggest near La Niña conditions for October to December, but fall just shy of thresholds. If La Niña was to occur, models currently indicate it is likely to be short-lived and weak.
The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for each month between November and March is between −0.6 °C and −0.1 °C.
The Bureau routinely monitors oceanic and atmospheric conditions and model outlooks. The most recent weekly NINO3.4 value to 16 October is −0.5 °C. NINO3.4 values that persist below −0.8 °C typically indicate a La Niña event has become established.

[Ntxw]

This is no good sign for a La Nina. This is the second of such a low number this fall. Readings should be the complete opposite in positive territory.

[Kingarabian]

Ntxw, what do you think we'll see next summer in terms of ENSO?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, what do you think we'll see next summer in terms of ENSO?

My guess is as good as yours. But looking back at Super El Nino events, La Ninas/La Nadas tried again the second year after (1972/1982/1997). This ENSO event has been following 1982 pretty closely with the PDO dampening the Nina attempts so I think a second try at a weak/mod event (1985) might happen again next summer. Sample size is extremely small though. But it doesn't look like the PDO is going to be in negative territory anytime soon for any extended period. it may briefly the next few months, but not enough to qualify as a -PDO regime. CFSv2 keeps it neutral to slightly positive. I know some folks were trying to get to a -PDO this year but it is now Nov and that isn't happening.

[Ntxw]

Down to -0.8C this week

[cycloneye]

Text of CPC update of 10/31/16 that has Nino 3.4 down to -0.8C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

ASO comes in -0.7 on ONI. That makes it 2/5 trimonthlies needed so far for an official La Nina


Just a jog through memory lane, one year ago around this time we were at the peak of what was a very powerful Super El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Nino 3.4 remains at -0.8C in this weekly CPC update of 11/7/16.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Hunabku]

[Ntxw]

NCDC PDO rose a little bit for October which means JISAO will probably stay close to the previous value or perhaps nudge up a bit

SOI continues to be a bag of mixed values. Daily has been weak positive or weak negative. 30 Day is weak negative while 90 day is weak positive.

[cycloneye]

CPC officially has La Nina.

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
10 November 2016
 
ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory
 
Synopsis:  La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17.
La Niña conditions were observed during October, with negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in early November stretching across most of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. With the exception of the Niño1+2 region, the Niño region indices remained negative over the last month, with the latest weekly value of the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8°C [Fig. 2]. The upper-ocean heat content also remained below average during October [Fig. 3], reflecting below-average temperatures at depth [Fig. 4]. Convection was suppressed over the central tropical Pacific and enhanced over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. The lower-level easterly winds were weakly enhanced near and west of the International Date Line, and anomalously westerly upper-level winds were mainly west of the International Date Line. Overall, the ocean and atmosphere system reflected weak La Niña conditions.

The multi-model averages favor La Niña conditions (3-month average Niño-3.4 index less than or equal to -0.5°C) continuing through the winter [Figs. 6] and [7]. Given the current atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with model forecasts, the forecaster consensus favors the continuation of weak La Niña conditions through December-February (DJF) 2016-17. At this time, the consensus favors La Niña to be short-lived, with ENSO-neutral favored beyond DJF. La Niña conditions are present and slightly favored to persist (~55% chance) through winter 2016-17 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

La Niña is likely to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday November 17th). Seasonal outlooks generally favor above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation in the northern tier of the United States.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... disc.shtml

[Hunabku]

NCDC PDO rose a little bit for October which means JISAO will probably stay close to the previous value or perhaps nudge up a bit

Oh yes good observation, JISAO will probably go the same or up. It will be interesting to see how reliable the PDO statistically tracks with ENSO. I say statistically because of how susceptible the PDO is to mid-upper latitude atmospheric dynamics and as we know those dynamics in the Northern Hemisphere are shifting dramatically.

[Hunabku]

I put together an animation to better conceptualize the connection between PDO and ENSO, via ONI which uses 3.4 region.

In the bottom area, the PDO looks 3.5 month into the future from the current date of the animation. I went with a 3.5 month PDO lag because it tracked closer to ONI than 3 or 4 months with this data set. Since we don't have October's JISAO PDO data yet, I estimated that it will stay the same as September's. On the "Lag Differential .." chart in the lower right, notice the big jump in the differential between PDO-October and ONI-June (the last big red bar).

This jump could be because of any one or a combination of the following:
1) There is something outside of ENSO teleconnection that has been recently forcing the PDO more positive
2) The PDO is showing a stubbornness to go lower which means more nino trends going forward
3) My October estimate for PDO is high, so it will actually be lower, which would better track with ONI

Also notice toward the end of the animation in November with the cold deepening in the east pacific. This seems to portend a dropping PDO, which will bring it more back in line with the temps that have dropped in ONI since July.



Link: https://youtu.be/Kssfab7N0To

[Ntxw]

I put together an animation to better conceptualize the connection between PDO and ENSO, via ONI which uses 3.4 region.

In the bottom area, the PDO looks 3.5 month into the future from the current date of the animation. I went with a 3.5 month PDO lag because it tracked closer to ONI than 3 or 4 months with this data set. Since we don't have October's JISAO PDO data yet, I estimated that it will stay the same as September's. On the "Lag Differential .." chart in the lower right, notice the big jump in the differential between PDO-October and ONI-June (the last big red bar).

This jump could be because of any one or a combination of the following:
1) There is something outside of ENSO teleconnection that has been recently forcing the PDO more positive
2) The PDO is showing a stubbornness to go lower which means more nino trends going forward
3) My October estimate for PDO is high, so it will actually be lower, which would better track with ONI

Also notice toward the end of the animation in November with the cold deepening in the east pacific. This seems to portend a dropping PDO, which will bring it more back in line with the temps that have dropped in ONI since July.

One thing to think about is the depth of the warm waters in the far northeastern Pacific above 40N. For the past couple of years it's not just shallow surface warmth easily shifted by the upper level pattern but consistent at depth as well. It takes a lot to upwell cooler waters with such deep warm anomalies. I think had the Nina been able to go stronger the atmosphere may have been more successful at flipping the PDO but instead the weather pattern in the northern Pacific remained similar to as if ENSO was a Nino with the deeper Aleutian low.

Anomalies at depth in the northeastern Pacific. The area you want to look at is right of 40N on this chart.



Quite warm in fact up and down the latitudes across the eastern Pacific. I posted Sept because ECMWF reanalysis does not yet have data for October.

In your typical cold PDO at depth would be colder