ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[RL3AO]

I've got nothing of fact to add to this discussion but did want to point out that there is some fascinating discussion ongoing on Twitter about "climate shifts" and how the Nino of 97-98 changed the baseline for a lot of these measurements and how the ongoing ENSO conditions may be doing it again. A guy named Sam Lillo started the discussion with this tweet: "Equatorial wind at 20hPa has been westerly for 21 months straight now. And no sign of that changing any time soon."

Yeah the QBO and the stratosphere in general has been quite weird this past year or so.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/PaulRoundy1/status/834354082953494528

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update has Nino 3.4 up to +0.3C and Nino 1+2 up to +2.3C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

1+2 is through the roof. Definitely looks like it's building from the east->west compared to west->east as we've seen in the past couple of Nino events.

[Hurricaneman]

This El Nino looks like it could be like 2009 where it started getting warm in the ENSO 1\2 and spread west so that could be another analog and the 1997 and 1982 El Nino did something similar so I would not rule out a moderate to strong El Nino and who knows maybe a super El Nino like 1997 and 1982

[Ntxw]

There are still no WWB's yet of significance to push the thermocline. Warm water is pooling west and below the dateline but is relatively still. Eastern warming is rather shallow and a strengthening of trades there could change it. No El Nino yet or motion to one at this time.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Bom has now moved to nino watch.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TDSwx/status/837072292941189120

[Ntxw]

I don't believe we're getting another super event. 1997 and 2015 were far ahead of this year and 2015 was already in a Nino state from 2014. Subsurface is nowhere near enough right now, the odds of another super event is extremely low. A weak, perhaps moderate event is possible given the state we are in. There are no sig WWB's to push towards an El Nino, the earliest CFSv2 sees it is early April. IF the WWB's don't come to fruition or lack of consistent hits, an aborted Nino attempt could also happen as well. In other words, everything is still on the table.

[1900hurricane]

I've been in the El Nino boat for a while now, but I also am skeptical of a higher end event. Things are still up in the air, but I'm favoring a weak El Nino at the moment, somewhere between 0.5*C and 1.0*C anomalies. I'm just not seeing any indicators for anything more at the moment, but ENSO forecasting has humbled me in the past.

[Golf7070]

The thing is 1+2 regions is past strong levels already. Hence all the southern storm systems. Ntxw, does it matter the pdo isnt as strong positive as in the past? Thats why im suprised there was so much troughing out west especially since the pdo was still positive

[Ntxw]

The thing is 1+2 regions is past strong levels already. Hence all the southern storm systems. Ntxw, does it matter the pdo isnt as strong positive as in the past? Thats why im suprised there was so much troughing out west especially since the pdo was still positive

1+2 can have wild swings due to seasonal variability as well. The key is always is there a deep pool below the surface with good atmospheric backing. It's not too relevant if the PDO is strong or not, the pdo is a long term signal looking at time scales of years and decades and should be used as such. I can recall many times last year some were calling for the PDO to fall negative as it was teetering. You will need a year+ of -PDO to say the PDO has flipped again.

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is 1+2 regions is past strong levels already. Hence all the southern storm systems. Ntxw, does it matter the pdo isnt as strong positive as in the past? Thats why im suprised there was so much troughing out west especially since the pdo was still positive

1+2 can have wild swings due to seasonal variability as well. The key is always is there a deep pool below the surface with good atmospheric backing. It's not too relevant if the PDO is strong or not, the pdo is a long term signal looking at time scales of years and decades and should be used as such. I can recall many times last year some were calling for the PDO to fall negative as it was teetering. You will need a year+ of -PDO to say the PDO has flipped again.

Also looking at things it looks like the +PDO is not ending anytime soon but there may be some brief glimpses of negative numbers like for a month or 2 in these type of regimes

[Golf7070]

The thing is 1+2 regions is past strong levels already. Hence all the southern storm systems. Ntxw, does it matter the pdo isnt as strong positive as in the past? Thats why im suprised there was so much troughing out west especially since the pdo was still positive

1+2 can have wild swings due to seasonal variability as well. The key is always is there a deep pool below the surface with good atmospheric backing. It's not too relevant if the PDO is strong or not, the pdo is a long term signal looking at time scales of years and decades and should be used as such. I can recall many times last year some were calling for the PDO to fall negative as it was teetering. You will need a year+ of -PDO to say the PDO has flipped again.

Ntxw, would you think if the pdo dont get too positive or negative that may help keep the niño from getting too strong if we end up getting one? I personally dont want a strong niño again

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, would you think if the pdo dont get too positive or negative that may help keep the niño from getting too strong if we end up getting one? I personally dont want a strong niño again

I don't think how strong or weak the PDO is effects how strong or weak a potential Nino is. ENSO is mostly ebb and flow of the tropics and the PDO regime is more or less reflective and feedback to it. As mentioned above PDO is a signal most wisely used as a long term signal in terms of years and decades.

[cycloneye]

MEI Index update is at cool neutral.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/837813535749058560

[Hurricaneman]

MEI Index update is at cool neutral.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/837813535749058560

This could also be an important clue on if we get an El Nino what type we get

[Ptarmigan]

Ntxw, would you think if the pdo dont get too positive or negative that may help keep the niño from getting too strong if we end up getting one? I personally dont want a strong niño again

I don't think how strong or weak the PDO is effects how strong or weak a potential Nino is. ENSO is mostly ebb and flow of the tropics and the PDO regime is more or less reflective and feedback to it. As mentioned above PDO is a signal most wisely used as a long term signal in terms of years and decades.

I have seen strong El Nino in cool PDO like in 1972-1973 or strong La Nina in warm PDO like in 1988-1989. It is a very complicated setup.

[Ptarmigan]

I've been in the El Nino boat for a while now, but I also am skeptical of a higher end event. Things are still up in the air, but I'm favoring a weak El Nino at the moment, somewhere between 0.5*C and 1.0*C anomalies. I'm just not seeing any indicators for anything more at the moment, but ENSO forecasting has humbled me in the past.

I do not think it will be a strong El Nino too. Probably a moderate event like in 2006-2007. There have been strong El Nino's happening close together in the early 1990s had multiple strong El Nino's based on MEI. However, Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) does not have El Nino in 1992-1993.

MEI Since 1950
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

MEI 1871 to 2005
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei. ... e.ext.html

Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml

[cycloneye]

CPC weekly update of 3/6/17 has Nino 3.4 down to 0.0C.Nino 1+2 is at +2.2C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf