ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[NDG]

Below is a graphic of the 12z ECMWF pressure forecast for Darwin and Tahiti. Looks like there will be quite high values at both locations...



Source: weather.us

Thanks for posting. I've never seen this graph. Indeed, well above normal at both Tahiti and Darwin averaged out the next 10 days but moreso at Darwin thus meaning a net -SOI.

I thought that they go by the average daily MSLP? Eventhough Darwin's pressure might reach higher surface pressure it also shows lower pressure during the same 24 hr period, so it may average lower, IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Below is a graphic of the 12z ECMWF pressure forecast for Darwin and Tahiti. Looks like there will be quite high values at both locations...

[img]https://i.imgur.com/UEGvvo8.jpg[img]

Source: weather.us

Thanks for posting. I've never seen this graph. Indeed, well above normal at both Tahiti and Darwin averaged out the next 10 days but moreso at Darwin thus meaning a net -SOI.

I thought that they go by the average daily MSLP? Eventhough Darwin's pressure might reach higher surface pressure it also shows lower pressure during the same 24 hr period, so it may average lower, IMO.

Yup, have to average out the pressures during the d-min/d-max periods for each day to get the average daily pressures.

[LarryWx]

Below is a graphic of the 12z ECMWF pressure forecast for Darwin and Tahiti. Looks like there will be quite high values at both locations...



Source: weather.us

Thanks for posting. I've never seen this graph. Indeed, well above normal at both Tahiti and Darwin averaged out the next 10 days but moreso at Darwin thus meaning a net -SOI.

I thought that they go by the average daily MSLP? Eventhough Darwin's pressure might reach higher surface pressure it also shows lower pressure during the same 24 hr period, so it may average lower, IMO.

Yes, good point but I'm still guessing that Darwin's 6/11 will be a little higher. The 6/12 will certainly be on the way down though.

[NotSparta]

After analyzing AMJ MJO for El Niño years from 1989-2012, (from Michael Ventrice's MJO page - http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html) I found that the latest 90 day from the BoM (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/) is most analogous to 2004 and 2009, though they aren't very good analogs. It would support the idea that 2018 ends up with a CP or west based El Niño.

[LarryWx]

Nino 3.4 remains at 0.0 this week. Most regions had no change.

[Ntxw]

That's what it looks like. If anything Nino 1+2 is down to -0.5C

[NDG]

No surprise about Nino 3.4 remaining the same this week, last night I looked at the buoys and if anything there was some cooling in the spots that had warmed up earlier in the week over Nino 3. The cooling is coming in from south of the equator & Nino 1+2, IMO.

[NDG]

This is how looks now compared to previous 30 years that have had at least a weak to moderate El Nino develop by Fall. We can cross out 2014, 2009 & to some degree 2002 as analog years, IMO.

2014 Nino 3.4 +0.4C Nino 1+2 +1.6C
2009 Nino 3.4 +0.4C Nino 1+2 +0.6C
2006 Nino 3.4 +0.3C Nino 1+2 -0.1C
2004 Nino 3.4 +0.3C Nino 1+2 -1.4C
2002 Nino 3.4 +0.9C Nino 1+2 -0.3C
1994 Nino 3.4 +0.3C Nino 1+2 -0.5C
1991 Nino 3.4 +0.6C Nino 1+2 +0.2C

[cycloneye]

CPC Weekly update of 6/11/18 has Niño 3,4 at the same number as last week's update (0.0C)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[NotSparta]

This is how looks now compared to previous 30 years that have had at least a weak to moderate El Nino develop by Fall. We can cross out 2014, 2009 & to some degree 2002 as analog years, IMO.

2014 Nino 3.4 +0.4C Nino 1+2 +1.6C
2009 Nino 3.4 +0.4C Nino 1+2 +0.6C
2006 Nino 3.4 +0.3C Nino 1+2 -0.1C
2004 Nino 3.4 +0.3C Nino 1+2 -1.4C
2002 Nino 3.4 +0.9C Nino 1+2 -0.3C
1994 Nino 3.4 +0.3C Nino 1+2 -0.5C
1991 Nino 3.4 +0.6C Nino 1+2 +0.2C

1994 seems like a decent analog. I think it ended up a weak west based Niño which seems likely for this year

[Kingarabian]

Well, when warming begins due to the repeated WWBs, it's gonna flip everything upside down. CFS latest member runs are even more bullish. Latest sub-surface snapshot shows continued expansion of the downwelling Kelvin wave into the EPAC, with no upwelling Kevin wave present.

2nd WWB coming up on the GFS:

[NotSparta]

I keep seeing 2009 for an analog wrt ENSO. I think it may be a similar event to 2009, but weaker as we are behind that year.

[NDG]

I keep seeing 2009 for an analog wrt ENSO. I think it may be a similar event to 2009, but weaker as we are behind that year.

I don't see the comparison so far, Nino 1+2 is much cooler than in 2009, that year it started as an eastern based Nino but later in the year became more central based.

[StruThiO]

oceanic heat anomalies tried decreasing recently but I'm sure the current WWB is putting an end to that

[Kingarabian]

Today's SOI came in at -32.

[LarryWx]

A rollercoaster is about to hit. The SOI is about to tank thanks mainly to Tahiti going down to the 1012 area Tuesday. The 0Z Euro suggests the most negative daily SOIs in quite awhile the next 2 days, quite possibly down into the -20s. However, due to a sharp Tahiti rise (approaching 1014.5) and Darwin fall (approaching 1012-1012.5 area) soon thereafter, the SOI will then rise and could easily be positive as soon as 6/14. Then by next weekend, Darwin rises back sharply to possibly above 1015 before falling back some to 1014. However, assuming Darwin does actually get to 1015+ next weekend, the SOI should only be mildly negative because Tahiti is then progged to be near or above 1015...maybe as high as 1016 though the Euro tends to be biased a bit high there, especially a week or more out. (Tomorrow’s Darwin may also sneak above 1015.)

Well, it tanked even more than the Euro suggested for 6/11-12 thanks to an even bigger SLP plunge of Tahiti than the Euro showed. And this is despite Darwin actually falling very slightly vs my prediction of a slight rise to perhaps over 1015.

[LarryWx]

Below is a graphic of the 12z ECMWF pressure forecast for Darwin and Tahiti. Looks like there will be quite high values at both locations...



Source: weather.us

Thanks for posting. I've never seen this graph. Indeed, well above normal at both Tahiti and Darwin averaged out the next 10 days but moreso at Darwin thus meaning a net -SOI.

I thought that they go by the average daily MSLP? Eventhough Darwin's pressure might reach higher surface pressure it also shows lower pressure during the same 24 hr period, so it may average lower, IMO.

Indeed, Darwin went down albeit barely on 6/11 vs 6/10 (1014.7 vs 1014.8). I was wrong as I had it rising slightly. It fell quite a bit on 6/12, which I and assume you expected. But looking at the graph, the Euro missed Tahiti quite a bit to the high side on 6/12. The actual was 1010.29, but the graph suggested well into the 1011s. the Euro does seem to have a high pressure bias at both at times, mainly at Tahiti.

[LarryWx]

Today's SOI came in at -32.

The -32 of 6/12 is the most negative daily SOI since all of the way back in April of 2017! However, due to a further ~1 mb fall at Darwin and 2+ mb rise at Tahiti, the 6/13 SOI should be near -10 or even into the -single digits. By 6/15, Tahiti should be way up at 1016+ unless the Euro high SLP bias throws me off. By that time, Darwin will be on the way back up, however.

**Edited

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1006484745327280128

[LarryWx]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1006484745327280128

The viewer should be careful about sizing up the 3.4 change from the prior run because the second graph’s months are progressed, too, of course. So, what may look like a significantly warmer run is actually only barely warmer at most for June-Oct. I agree that it suggests a lower end moderate is reached or just about reached by November.